Category: Patriots

Could Bill Belichick Switch to a Zone Defense to Stop Rams?

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Bill Belichick is known for always trying to take away his opponents’ greatest strength, which usually means taking a specific player out of the game. Against the Los Angeles Rams offense, however, it’s difficult to pinpoint one person who makes the offense go.

Rather than targeting a specific player, Belichick may attempt to manipulate the Rams offense with his coverage schemes.

During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.

However, Jared Goff picked apart defenses in man coverage this year, leading the league with 9.22 yards per attempt versus man.

Against zone coverage, it was a different story. Here’s the breakdown of his numbers versus coverage type (this doesn’t include plays versus other less common formations, such as combo coverage schemes):

The Patriots were strong in man coverage this year, allowing 5.97 yards per attempt. So perhaps they’ll stick with what has worked for them. But Belichick hasn’t achieved success at this level by stubbornly sticking with what he perceives to be his team’s strength.

With two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, it would be very Belichick-like to have spent that time working with his defensive coaching staff to plan for an increased use of zone coverage in an effort to manipulate the Rams offense.

Rather than attempt to take away a specific player, the Patriots zone coverage could take away a entire set of plays that the Rams rely on. Especially since this matchup has a high probability of turning into a shootout, it could benefit the Patriots to force Goff to make plays against zone coverage, a situation in which he’s clearly uncomfortable.

Zone coverage would also dramatically increase the Patriots odds of forcing a turnover in this game. Goff threw an interception once every 94.5 attempts versus man coverage, compared to one every 32.0 versus zone, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Belichick can be hard to predict, so there’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll view this as the best way to manipulate the Rams offense. But if he shifts away from his trend of relying on man coverage on Sunday, we’ll know why.

Can Rams Stop Julian Edelman in the Slot?

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If the Los Angeles Rams are going to upset the New England Patriots in next week’s Super Bowl, they will likely need to take away Tom Brady’s favorite target, Julian Edelman.

As demonstrated by Next Gen Stats, Edelman has been a force from the slot during this playoff run:

To find a way to stop Edelman, the Rams may consider adjusting their tendencies in terms of zone versus man coverage, based on Edelman’s personal strengths and weaknesses.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Rams operated out of a zone defense on 45.1 percent of opponents’ dropbacks compared to 38.6 percent in man coverage (the rest of the snaps fall into prevent, combo or other less common formations).

Clearly defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tends to favor zone, but that split is more balanced than most teams in the league. This raises the question of whether they may switch up their tendencies against the Patriots in an effort to slow down Edelman.

When lined up in the slot, the Patriots completed passes to Edelman at a rate nearly 10 percentage points higher versus zone coverage compared to man:

Of course, the Rams defense also has to consider its own strengths and weaknesses. If their personnel is better suited for stopping a strong slot receiver in zone coverage, they shouldn’t overthink things just because they’re intimidated by Edelman.

Fortunately for Phillips, his defense also shows a substantially better performance against slot receivers when they’re in man coverage:

If the Rams opt to increase their man coverage in an effort to stop Edelman, Nickell Robey-Coleman will likely have increased importance to the Rams’ success as their primary slot corner (although it’s worth noting Marcus Peters also saw 22 targets versus slot receivers this season).

While Robey-Coleman has been in the news lately for a penalty that likely should have ended the Rams season, he has quietly developed into one of the better slot corners in the game.

Sports Info Solutions tracks what they call a “deserved catch” as a way to evaluate defensive backs in coverage. This stat penalizes the primary defender in coverage for allowing a reception on both actual receptions and dropped passes. Based on this metric, Robey-Coleman ranked as one of the most efficient slot cornerbacks in man coverage this season:

Robey-Coleman also allowed 2.83 yards per target in man coverage in the slot, by far the lowest rate in the league (next was the Dolphins’ Minkah Fitzpatrick at 4.46 yards per target).

It’s hard to imagine Robey-Coleman replicating those numbers against Edelman. The Patriots will find ways to get the ball in the hands of their veteran slot receiver. However, a few well-timed stops by Robey-Coleman could be enough to stall a few Patriots drives and have a significant impact on the flow of the game.

Patriots May Struggle to Stop Rams Rushing Attack

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One of the reasons the Rams rushing attack is so effective—aside from simply the talent of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson—is Sean McVay’s ability to manipulate the defense with his offensive formations.

The Rams ran the ball from 11 personnel (three receivers, one running back, one tight end) on 82.8 percent of their rushing attempts this season, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. No other team was above 66.3 percent (the Dolphins).

The benefit to this strategy is that it limits the defense’s ability to load the box with eight or more defenders.

The Rams successfully used this strategy to become the only team in the league that was able to earn a positive gain in Expected Points Added (EPA) on over 50 percent of their rushing plays this season.

On the other side of the ball, stopping the run has been an area where the Patriots defense has had some issues.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots allowed 5.16 yards per attempt versus 11 personnel this season, which ranked 18th. But perhaps more concerning for the Patriots is the fact that they allowed 2.67 yards before contact per attempt versus 11 personnel, ranking 27th in the league.

This stat indicates that Gurley and Anderson should have some running room against New England’s defense, and we’ve seen throughout the season that both running backs have the ability to break off long runs once they’re given some room to sneak through the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the health of Gurley could complicate matters for the Rams. Despite McVay’s claim that Gurley’s lack of playing time against the Saints was due to the “flow of the game,” it’s hard to believe given the discrepancy in usage between Gurley and Anderson:

The Rams should be able to create running room for Gurley or Anderson, but having the more explosive Gurley on the field would certainly benefit Los Angeles’ quest for a Super Bowl title.

Stephon Gilmore Among Pass-Disruption Rate Leaders

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Yesterday I outlined why the Patriots man coverage may present a challenge for Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. One of the more specific challenges Mahomes will face is trying to throw in the direction of Stephon Gilmore, who has been one of the most dominant cornerbacks in the game this season.

Sports Info Solutions tracks four different types of coverage stats: interceptions, dropped interceptions, passes defensed and passes deflected (here’s their glossary for full explanations of the differences).

If we add up all these stats and divide by a cornerback’s targets faced in coverage, we get a number we’ll call his “pass-disruption rate.” Essentially, it’s the rate at which he legally interferes with the attempted pass.

Among cornerbacks with at least 48 targets in coverage (three per team game), here are the leaders from the 2018 regular season:

Gilmore was one of just three players in the league to generate a pass-disruption rate greater than 25 percent.

One of the reasons Gilmore has thrived in New England appears to be his production in man coverage, especially when he’s allowed to get physical with receivers. NFL Network’s Michael Giardi recently shared this excellent stat, via Next Gen Stats, on Gilmore’s performance in press coverage:

According to Sports Info Solutions, Mahomes didn’t entirely avoid Gilmore in the teams’ first meeting, but he didn’t have much success targeting him either. Mahomes completed two of four passes for 18 yards when throwing in Gilmore’s direction.

How often Mahomes challenges him and how often Gilmore is able to disrupt the pass will be a fun storyline to watch unfold on Sunday.

Patriots Man Coverage May Be the Key to Slowing Down Patrick Mahomes

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Patrick Mahomes led one of the most prolific passing offenses in NFL history this season, and at times the Kansas City Chiefs have seemed unbeatable. However, Mahomes is still just 23 years old, and like all first-year starting quarterbacks, he has weaknesses teams can attempt to exploit.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the New England Patriots appear to be particularly well suited to take advantage of one of these weaknesses: Mahomes’ performance against man coverage.

During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.

This stat should be mildly concerning to Chiefs fans due to the team’s markedly different approach to throwing versus man coverage.

When facing zone, Mahomes threw the ball 10 or more yards downfield on 46.7 percent of his attempts, the fifth highest rate in the league. When facing man coverage, however, Mahomes attempted just 33.9 percent of his passes at 10 or more yards downfield, the seven lowest rate in the league.

Due to this different offensive philosophy versus man and zone coverage, it appears as though a defense such as the Patriots could manipulate the Chiefs into being more conservative simply by adjusting their defensive coverages.

While the Chiefs are known as a big-play offense, this has more to do with the volume of shots they take at the intermediate and deep levels than their efficiency. Among the 30 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes at 10 or more yards downfield, Mahomes ranked 12th in completion percentage on those throws, according to Sports Info Solutions.

So if the Patriots’ defense can minimize the amount of shots Mahomes takes by simply playing man coverage, theoretically, they’ll increase their chances of keeping the Chiefs offense in check.

If you watched these teams play the first time around—a 43-40 Patriots’ victory in Foxboro—you’re probably skeptical that anything the Patriots do defensively could slow down Mahomes. After all, he threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns.

But a closer look at the numbers shows the Patriots actually did cause Mahomes problems with their man defense.

Take a look at Mahomes 10-yard pass attempts broken up by coverage type:

Clearly Mahomes struggled throwing downfield against the Patriots’ man coverage, but was able to take advantage of his few opportunities against the zone.

In total, Mahomes dropped back to pass 37 times against the Patriots and only 11 came with New England in zone coverage. He completed eight passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions on those 11 dropbacks.

So what will Bill Belichick draw up this time? Will he stick with the same game plan and assume Mahomes can’t replicate those 223 yards on just 11 plays against the zone? Or will he try to further cut down on his usage of zone coverage? How Belichick answers those questions could potentially determine the outcome of the AFC Championship Game.

 

All stats from Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.