Bill Belichick is known for always trying to take away his opponents’ greatest strength, which usually means taking a specific player out of the game. Against the Los Angeles Rams offense, however, it’s difficult to pinpoint one person who makes the offense go.
Rather than targeting a specific player, Belichick may attempt to manipulate the Rams offense with his coverage schemes.
During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.
However, Jared Goff picked apart defenses in man coverage this year, leading the league with 9.22 yards per attempt versus man.
Against zone coverage, it was a different story. Here’s the breakdown of his numbers versus coverage type (this doesn’t include plays versus other less common formations, such as combo coverage schemes):
The Patriots were strong in man coverage this year, allowing 5.97 yards per attempt. So perhaps they’ll stick with what has worked for them. But Belichick hasn’t achieved success at this level by stubbornly sticking with what he perceives to be his team’s strength.
With two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, it would be very Belichick-like to have spent that time working with his defensive coaching staff to plan for an increased use of zone coverage in an effort to manipulate the Rams offense.
Rather than attempt to take away a specific player, the Patriots zone coverage could take away a entire set of plays that the Rams rely on. Especially since this matchup has a high probability of turning into a shootout, it could benefit the Patriots to force Goff to make plays against zone coverage, a situation in which he’s clearly uncomfortable.
Zone coverage would also dramatically increase the Patriots odds of forcing a turnover in this game. Goff threw an interception once every 94.5 attempts versus man coverage, compared to one every 32.0 versus zone, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Belichick can be hard to predict, so there’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll view this as the best way to manipulate the Rams offense. But if he shifts away from his trend of relying on man coverage on Sunday, we’ll know why.
