Patrick Mahomes led one of the most prolific passing offenses in NFL history this season, and at times the Kansas City Chiefs have seemed unbeatable. However, Mahomes is still just 23 years old, and like all first-year starting quarterbacks, he has weaknesses teams can attempt to exploit.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the New England Patriots appear to be particularly well suited to take advantage of one of these weaknesses: Mahomes’ performance against man coverage.
During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.
This stat should be mildly concerning to Chiefs fans due to the team’s markedly different approach to throwing versus man coverage.
When facing zone, Mahomes threw the ball 10 or more yards downfield on 46.7 percent of his attempts, the fifth highest rate in the league. When facing man coverage, however, Mahomes attempted just 33.9 percent of his passes at 10 or more yards downfield, the seven lowest rate in the league.
Due to this different offensive philosophy versus man and zone coverage, it appears as though a defense such as the Patriots could manipulate the Chiefs into being more conservative simply by adjusting their defensive coverages.
While the Chiefs are known as a big-play offense, this has more to do with the volume of shots they take at the intermediate and deep levels than their efficiency. Among the 30 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes at 10 or more yards downfield, Mahomes ranked 12th in completion percentage on those throws, according to Sports Info Solutions.
So if the Patriots’ defense can minimize the amount of shots Mahomes takes by simply playing man coverage, theoretically, they’ll increase their chances of keeping the Chiefs offense in check.
If you watched these teams play the first time around—a 43-40 Patriots’ victory in Foxboro—you’re probably skeptical that anything the Patriots do defensively could slow down Mahomes. After all, he threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns.
But a closer look at the numbers shows the Patriots actually did cause Mahomes problems with their man defense.
Take a look at Mahomes 10-yard pass attempts broken up by coverage type:
Clearly Mahomes struggled throwing downfield against the Patriots’ man coverage, but was able to take advantage of his few opportunities against the zone.
In total, Mahomes dropped back to pass 37 times against the Patriots and only 11 came with New England in zone coverage. He completed eight passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions on those 11 dropbacks.
So what will Bill Belichick draw up this time? Will he stick with the same game plan and assume Mahomes can’t replicate those 223 yards on just 11 plays against the zone? Or will he try to further cut down on his usage of zone coverage? How Belichick answers those questions could potentially determine the outcome of the AFC Championship Game.
All stats from Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
