Yesterday I outlined why the Patriots man coverage may present a challenge for Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. One of the more specific challenges Mahomes will face is trying to throw in the direction of Stephon Gilmore, who has been one of the most dominant cornerbacks in the game this season.
Sports Info Solutions tracks four different types of coverage stats: interceptions, dropped interceptions, passes defensed and passes deflected (here’s their glossary for full explanations of the differences).
If we add up all these stats and divide by a cornerback’s targets faced in coverage, we get a number we’ll call his “pass-disruption rate.” Essentially, it’s the rate at which he legally interferes with the attempted pass.
Among cornerbacks with at least 48 targets in coverage (three per team game), here are the leaders from the 2018 regular season:
Gilmore was one of just three players in the league to generate a pass-disruption rate greater than 25 percent.
One of the reasons Gilmore has thrived in New England appears to be his production in man coverage, especially when he’s allowed to get physical with receivers. NFL Network’s Michael Giardi recently shared this excellent stat, via Next Gen Stats, on Gilmore’s performance in press coverage:
Per #NextGenStats, All-Pro CB Stephon Gilmore has allowed one reception on 15 deep targets in press coverage. He’s allowed 4 recs on 8 deep targets playing off coverage. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill has a league best yards per route in press coverage. #Patriots @nflnetwork
— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 18, 2019
According to Sports Info Solutions, Mahomes didn’t entirely avoid Gilmore in the teams’ first meeting, but he didn’t have much success targeting him either. Mahomes completed two of four passes for 18 yards when throwing in Gilmore’s direction.
How often Mahomes challenges him and how often Gilmore is able to disrupt the pass will be a fun storyline to watch unfold on Sunday.
