The 49ers entered the 2018 season with expectations of battling for the postseason. However, after losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL just three games into his first full season as a starter, those dreams were dashed.
With Garoppolo returning, the 49ers have most of the pieces in place for a quality offensive unit in 2019. In fact, the 49ers even started to figure things out with Nick Mullens at quarterback, averaging 5.99 yards per play over the final five weeks of the season, the fourth best rate in the league.
This offseason, the team needs to turn its attention to the defensive side of the ball and upgrade a unit that had a bit of a roller coaster season.
Based on the state of the roster, here’s a look at the key areas GM John Lynch should try to addressnz this offseason.
Pass-Rusher
According to Chris Biderman of the Sacramento Bee, head coach Kyle Shanahan recently shared what he believes to be the most important positions on the field: “I’d say a quarterback on offense and an edge rusher on defense. A quarterback can hide a lot of problems and so can a pass rush. You can do different things in coverage. You can be more aggressive. You can have some holes and some vulnerabilities that you can see as a coach.”
Since the 49ers are set at quarterback, it’s probably safe to assume Shanahan views edge rusher as a need for the Niners this offseason.
In 2018, San Francisco ranked 15th in the NFL with a pressure rate of 30.9 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions, and Arik Armstead led the team with a rate of 11.0 percent. However, Armstead, Casius Marsh (9.7 percent) and DeForest Buckner (8.9 percent)—the top three on the team in pressure rate—could all hit free agency following the 2019 season. Marsh and Armstead will be unrestricted free agents, while Buckner is due his fifth-year team option.
So while the 49ers pass-rush isn’t a glaring immediate weakness, the team may feel pressure to addressnz the position this offseason. Adding another young pass-rusher such as Ohio State’s Nick Bosa or Kentucky’s Josh Allen at No. 2 overall, could potentially make this an area of strength in 2019, while also giving them some flexibility next offseason.
Cornerback
Richard Sherman maintained a reasonably productive level of performance in 2018, but he’s clearly on the decline. And given his contract—according to Spotrac the 49ers could save $7.8M in cap space by cutting him this offseason and $9M by cutting next year—he probably doesn’t have a long-term future with the team.
In 2018, Sherman generated a pass-disruption rate (the rate at which he influenced the pass via interception, pass deflected, etc. when targeted in coverage) of just 8.9 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions. That ranked 107th out of 121 players who faced at least 40 targets in coverage. Ahkello Witherspoon, who started opposite Sherman, didn’t fare much better, ranking 102nd overall.
The 49ers also struggled significantly against slot receivers, giving up 9.23 yards per target in the slot, the fourth worst rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. K’Waun Williams, who still has two years remaining on his contract, was their primary nickel corner.
Despite having the entire cornerback depth chart under contract, given their performance in 2019, the 49ers should strongly consider searching for some upgrades.
Free Safety
This issue could be solved by simply re-signing Jimmie Ward, but no one would blame him if he isn’t open to returning after missing the playoffs for five straight years in San Francisco.
Ward has played every position in the secondary during his time with the 49ers, but has typically lined up at free safety for the past two seasons under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
According to Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers were in Cover 1 or Cover 3 formations for 58.7 percent of opponents dropbacks in 2018, both of which rely on Ward’s range in the middle of the field in the deep secondary.
Assuming Saleh and the 49ers like Ward in that role, re-signing him should be an offseason priority. If not, the team should be in the market for a free safety who has the range to take over that role.
Deep Threat
The 49ers have some nice depth at the wide receiver position, but they’re lacking a specific skill set in the form of a true deep threat.
According to Next Gen Stats, George Kittle accounted for 25.3 percent of the 49ers air yards a season ago. He was one of just three tight ends (Oakland’s Jared Cook and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz) to lead his team in that category.
That stat speaks to Kittle’s strong performance, but also to the 49ers lack of a receiver who can stretch the field.
Only 7.7 percent of 49ers pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards downfield in 2018, the lowest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. Kittle led the team with 10 deep targets.
Marquise Goodwin has the speed for this role, but he’s struggled to make an impact during his two years in San Francisco with just 11 receptions on 32 targets at 20 yards downfield. And according to Next Gen Stats, Goodwin generated an average of 3.0 yards of separation per target this season—an acceptable number, but lower than both Dante Pettis and Kittle.
Goodwin has three years remaining on his contract, but if the 49ers haven’t figured out how to use him in this role yet, it’s probably not going to happen. Finding a replacement doesn’t need to be a high priority, but they should be on the lookout for someone who can stretch the field.
