Category: Rams

Could Bill Belichick Switch to a Zone Defense to Stop Rams?

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Bill Belichick is known for always trying to take away his opponents’ greatest strength, which usually means taking a specific player out of the game. Against the Los Angeles Rams offense, however, it’s difficult to pinpoint one person who makes the offense go.

Rather than targeting a specific player, Belichick may attempt to manipulate the Rams offense with his coverage schemes.

During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.

However, Jared Goff picked apart defenses in man coverage this year, leading the league with 9.22 yards per attempt versus man.

Against zone coverage, it was a different story. Here’s the breakdown of his numbers versus coverage type (this doesn’t include plays versus other less common formations, such as combo coverage schemes):

The Patriots were strong in man coverage this year, allowing 5.97 yards per attempt. So perhaps they’ll stick with what has worked for them. But Belichick hasn’t achieved success at this level by stubbornly sticking with what he perceives to be his team’s strength.

With two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, it would be very Belichick-like to have spent that time working with his defensive coaching staff to plan for an increased use of zone coverage in an effort to manipulate the Rams offense.

Rather than attempt to take away a specific player, the Patriots zone coverage could take away a entire set of plays that the Rams rely on. Especially since this matchup has a high probability of turning into a shootout, it could benefit the Patriots to force Goff to make plays against zone coverage, a situation in which he’s clearly uncomfortable.

Zone coverage would also dramatically increase the Patriots odds of forcing a turnover in this game. Goff threw an interception once every 94.5 attempts versus man coverage, compared to one every 32.0 versus zone, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Belichick can be hard to predict, so there’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll view this as the best way to manipulate the Rams offense. But if he shifts away from his trend of relying on man coverage on Sunday, we’ll know why.

Can Rams Stop Julian Edelman in the Slot?

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If the Los Angeles Rams are going to upset the New England Patriots in next week’s Super Bowl, they will likely need to take away Tom Brady’s favorite target, Julian Edelman.

As demonstrated by Next Gen Stats, Edelman has been a force from the slot during this playoff run:

To find a way to stop Edelman, the Rams may consider adjusting their tendencies in terms of zone versus man coverage, based on Edelman’s personal strengths and weaknesses.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Rams operated out of a zone defense on 45.1 percent of opponents’ dropbacks compared to 38.6 percent in man coverage (the rest of the snaps fall into prevent, combo or other less common formations).

Clearly defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tends to favor zone, but that split is more balanced than most teams in the league. This raises the question of whether they may switch up their tendencies against the Patriots in an effort to slow down Edelman.

When lined up in the slot, the Patriots completed passes to Edelman at a rate nearly 10 percentage points higher versus zone coverage compared to man:

Of course, the Rams defense also has to consider its own strengths and weaknesses. If their personnel is better suited for stopping a strong slot receiver in zone coverage, they shouldn’t overthink things just because they’re intimidated by Edelman.

Fortunately for Phillips, his defense also shows a substantially better performance against slot receivers when they’re in man coverage:

If the Rams opt to increase their man coverage in an effort to stop Edelman, Nickell Robey-Coleman will likely have increased importance to the Rams’ success as their primary slot corner (although it’s worth noting Marcus Peters also saw 22 targets versus slot receivers this season).

While Robey-Coleman has been in the news lately for a penalty that likely should have ended the Rams season, he has quietly developed into one of the better slot corners in the game.

Sports Info Solutions tracks what they call a “deserved catch” as a way to evaluate defensive backs in coverage. This stat penalizes the primary defender in coverage for allowing a reception on both actual receptions and dropped passes. Based on this metric, Robey-Coleman ranked as one of the most efficient slot cornerbacks in man coverage this season:

Robey-Coleman also allowed 2.83 yards per target in man coverage in the slot, by far the lowest rate in the league (next was the Dolphins’ Minkah Fitzpatrick at 4.46 yards per target).

It’s hard to imagine Robey-Coleman replicating those numbers against Edelman. The Patriots will find ways to get the ball in the hands of their veteran slot receiver. However, a few well-timed stops by Robey-Coleman could be enough to stall a few Patriots drives and have a significant impact on the flow of the game.

Patriots May Struggle to Stop Rams Rushing Attack

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One of the reasons the Rams rushing attack is so effective—aside from simply the talent of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson—is Sean McVay’s ability to manipulate the defense with his offensive formations.

The Rams ran the ball from 11 personnel (three receivers, one running back, one tight end) on 82.8 percent of their rushing attempts this season, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. No other team was above 66.3 percent (the Dolphins).

The benefit to this strategy is that it limits the defense’s ability to load the box with eight or more defenders.

The Rams successfully used this strategy to become the only team in the league that was able to earn a positive gain in Expected Points Added (EPA) on over 50 percent of their rushing plays this season.

On the other side of the ball, stopping the run has been an area where the Patriots defense has had some issues.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots allowed 5.16 yards per attempt versus 11 personnel this season, which ranked 18th. But perhaps more concerning for the Patriots is the fact that they allowed 2.67 yards before contact per attempt versus 11 personnel, ranking 27th in the league.

This stat indicates that Gurley and Anderson should have some running room against New England’s defense, and we’ve seen throughout the season that both running backs have the ability to break off long runs once they’re given some room to sneak through the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the health of Gurley could complicate matters for the Rams. Despite McVay’s claim that Gurley’s lack of playing time against the Saints was due to the “flow of the game,” it’s hard to believe given the discrepancy in usage between Gurley and Anderson:

The Rams should be able to create running room for Gurley or Anderson, but having the more explosive Gurley on the field would certainly benefit Los Angeles’ quest for a Super Bowl title.

Can Saints Stop Rams Unique Rushing Attack?

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The New Orleans Saints wrapped up the regular season with the NFL’s second-ranked rushing defense, giving up just 1,283 yards on 3.6 yards per attempt. That would seemingly put them in good position to shut down the Los Angeles Rams new-found two-headed monster of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. However, the Rams present a unique challenge for defenses due to the formations they use on offense.

According to Sports Info Solutions, 82.8 percent of the Rams rushing attempts this season came from three-receiver sets. No other team in the league generated a rate higher than 69.0 percent (the Dolphins), and the other 31 teams averaged just 50.4 percent of their attempts from three-receiver formations.

The benefit of running the ball in a three-receiver formation is it limits the defense’s ability to load the box.

When defenses are able to load the box against the Rams, they’re able to slow down their rushing attack. Los Angeles averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt when running into a box with eight or more defenders, per Sports Info Solutions. However, only 17.0 percent of the Rams rushing attempts came versus eight or more men in the box, the fourth lowest rate in the league.

The Rams unique approach to the run game presents a problem for most teams, but the Saints appear to be qualified to stop it. While their run defense was slightly worse versus three-receiver formations, they maintained their rank as the No. 2 defense, giving up just 3.98 yards per attempt.

The two teams met earlier this year, so the Saints will have some familiarity with the Rams rushing attack. However, since New Orleans jumped out to a 35-13 lead in the first half, the Rams were forced to abandon the run game early. Gurley finished with just 68 yards on 13 carries, all 13 from a three-receiver formation.

Of course, none of these stats account for the fact that defensive tackle Sheldon Rankin is out with a torn Achilles tendon. His absence may create a weakness the Rams can exploit. But if New Orleans is adequately able to replace him, they could potentially slow down the Rams rushing attack in a way few teams have done this season.

Offseason Needs: St. Louis Rams

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1. Wide Receiver
The St. Louis Rams need to upgrade the supporting cast around Sam Bradford. Even if Danny Amendola is re-signed, the Rams need to find Bradford a legitimate No. 1 receiver. After a hot start, Amendola came back down to earth and ended his season with a thud. In the final three weeks, Amendola caught just 12 of 25 passes thrown his direction.

2. Offensive Line
Rodger Saffold is a quality start, but may be better suited to shift to the right side of the line. The Rams could also use an upgrade over free agent left guard Robert Turner. Right tackle Barry Richardson is also an unrestricted free agent.

3. Strong-side linebacker
Veteran Rocky McIntosh is a free agent and likely won’t be back. The Rams lack depth at linebacker and don’t have anyone capable of stepping up to fill his shoes. This could be a position addressnzed on day two of the draft.