Category: Chiefs

Patriots Man Coverage May Be the Key to Slowing Down Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs, Patriots
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Patrick Mahomes led one of the most prolific passing offenses in NFL history this season, and at times the Kansas City Chiefs have seemed unbeatable. However, Mahomes is still just 23 years old, and like all first-year starting quarterbacks, he has weaknesses teams can attempt to exploit.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the New England Patriots appear to be particularly well suited to take advantage of one of these weaknesses: Mahomes’ performance against man coverage.

During the regular season, 57.4 percent of pass attempts against the Patriots defense occurred versus man coverage, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. The NFL average was 40.2 percent.

This stat should be mildly concerning to Chiefs fans due to the team’s markedly different approach to throwing versus man coverage.

When facing zone, Mahomes threw the ball 10 or more yards downfield on 46.7 percent of his attempts, the fifth highest rate in the league. When facing man coverage, however, Mahomes attempted just 33.9 percent of his passes at 10 or more yards downfield, the seven lowest rate in the league.

Due to this different offensive philosophy versus man and zone coverage, it appears as though a defense such as the Patriots could manipulate the Chiefs into being more conservative simply by adjusting their defensive coverages.

While the Chiefs are known as a big-play offense, this has more to do with the volume of shots they take at the intermediate and deep levels than their efficiency. Among the 30 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes at 10 or more yards downfield, Mahomes ranked 12th in completion percentage on those throws, according to Sports Info Solutions.

So if the Patriots’ defense can minimize the amount of shots Mahomes takes by simply playing man coverage, theoretically, they’ll increase their chances of keeping the Chiefs offense in check.

If you watched these teams play the first time around—a 43-40 Patriots’ victory in Foxboro—you’re probably skeptical that anything the Patriots do defensively could slow down Mahomes. After all, he threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns.

But a closer look at the numbers shows the Patriots actually did cause Mahomes problems with their man defense.

Take a look at Mahomes 10-yard pass attempts broken up by coverage type:

Clearly Mahomes struggled throwing downfield against the Patriots’ man coverage, but was able to take advantage of his few opportunities against the zone.

In total, Mahomes dropped back to pass 37 times against the Patriots and only 11 came with New England in zone coverage. He completed eight passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions on those 11 dropbacks.

So what will Bill Belichick draw up this time? Will he stick with the same game plan and assume Mahomes can’t replicate those 223 yards on just 11 plays against the zone? Or will he try to further cut down on his usage of zone coverage? How Belichick answers those questions could potentially determine the outcome of the AFC Championship Game.

 

All stats from Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Fisher, Grade: A-

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It’s tough to get too excited about Eric Fisher as the No. 1 pick, but it’s a solid fit and fills a need. Fisher may start his career at right tackle if the Chiefs hang on to Branden Albert, but Fisher’s future is definitely on the left side.

When you consider what Alex Smith did behind a solid line and a great running game in San Francisco, this could help the Chiefs turn things around immediately.

Eric Fisher Scouting Report

Draft Grades: Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Draft Grades - 2012
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The Kansas City Chiefs gambled early and often in this class, focusing on players with high upside despite minimal on-field production in college. It’s a bold strategy, and Scott Pioli is putting his job on the line. If these draft classes don’t pan out, he’ll be on the hot seat in a year or two.

Dontari Poe is a classic boom-or-bust prospect. It’s impossible to overlook his measurables, but it’s equally tough to ignore his lack of production at Memphis. The Chiefs could prove to be an ideal landing spot for him though. Romeo Crennel has a strong track record developing nose tackles, working with Vince Wilfork in New England and Shaun Rogers in Cleveland. He’s a true player’s coach, and should be able to keep Poe motivated.

Jeff Allen was considered a 2nd-round pick by many, but it feels like a reach to me. He primarily played tackle at Illinois, rotating between left and right tackle in every game. That type of versatility is intriguing, but his athleticism is limited and he’ll be limited to right tackle or guard at the next level. I’d be more comfortable with the selection of Allen if he filled a need, but the Chiefs don’t appear to have any immediate openings on the offensive.

Donald Stephenson has the measurables to play left tackle in the pros but he, like Poe, showed limited production in college. Given his upside, the Chiefs will likely groom him behind Branden Albert. He may take a year or two to reach his full potential, but he does have a chance to take over a starting job down the road.

Devon Wylie is an elite deep threat, who was a solid value in the 4th round. He’s as fast and explosive as any receiver in this class and has the potential to make an impact in a limited role immediately, and potentially on special teams as well. However, Wylie also has an extensive injury history and has struggled to stay on the field.

De’Quan Menzie played corner at Alabama but is a candidate to shift to free safety in the pros. He lacks the speed to be consistently effective in coverage, but does have the size and ability in run support to play safety. However, the Chiefs secondary is crowded. He’ll need to prove his worth on special teams in order to win a roster spot.

The selection of Cyrus Gray was questionable, even the 6th round. While there’s no denying he was worthy of a 6th-round pick, it’s tough to see how he fits into the Chiefs plan. Peyton Hillis, Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster are guaranteed roster spots, which makes Gray a long shot to make the final roster cut.

Jerome Long is a developmental prospect. He’ll likely be moved to to end in the Chiefs 3-4 defense but he’ll have to fight with Brandon Bair and others for a spot on the roster.

Junior Hemingway is a decent developmental prospect in the 7th round. He has the measurables and turned in some impressive workouts this offseason. He has limited experience in a pro-style offense, however, which limited his growth as a receiver. He’s definitely a candidate to be one of the steals from the 7th round.

Like their 1st-round pick, this was a boom-or-bust draft class for the Chiefs. Poe is the only prospect who will start immediately, and even he is developmental propsect who may struggle early on his career. While this draft class has the potential to produce three or four starters, there are no slam dunks. This could prove to be a critical draft class for Scott Piolo. Either he hits a home run and the Chiefs become serious contenders, or each of these prospects fails to live up their potential and Pioli finds himself on the hot seat.