If the Los Angeles Rams are going to upset the New England Patriots in next week’s Super Bowl, they will likely need to take away Tom Brady’s favorite target, Julian Edelman.
As demonstrated by Next Gen Stats, Edelman has been a force from the slot during this playoff run:
Julian Edelman has been the @Patriots go-to receiver in the middle of the field during their playoff run. Edelman has accumulated 171 receiving yards on middle of the field targets over his last two games.#NEvsKC | #GoPats pic.twitter.com/x56rE78Fyu
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 21, 2019
To find a way to stop Edelman, the Rams may consider adjusting their tendencies in terms of zone versus man coverage, based on Edelman’s personal strengths and weaknesses.
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Rams operated out of a zone defense on 45.1 percent of opponents’ dropbacks compared to 38.6 percent in man coverage (the rest of the snaps fall into prevent, combo or other less common formations).
Clearly defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tends to favor zone, but that split is more balanced than most teams in the league. This raises the question of whether they may switch up their tendencies against the Patriots in an effort to slow down Edelman.
When lined up in the slot, the Patriots completed passes to Edelman at a rate nearly 10 percentage points higher versus zone coverage compared to man:
Of course, the Rams defense also has to consider its own strengths and weaknesses. If their personnel is better suited for stopping a strong slot receiver in zone coverage, they shouldn’t overthink things just because they’re intimidated by Edelman.
Fortunately for Phillips, his defense also shows a substantially better performance against slot receivers when they’re in man coverage:
If the Rams opt to increase their man coverage in an effort to stop Edelman, Nickell Robey-Coleman will likely have increased importance to the Rams’ success as their primary slot corner (although it’s worth noting Marcus Peters also saw 22 targets versus slot receivers this season).
While Robey-Coleman has been in the news lately for a penalty that likely should have ended the Rams season, he has quietly developed into one of the better slot corners in the game.
Sports Info Solutions tracks what they call a “deserved catch” as a way to evaluate defensive backs in coverage. This stat penalizes the primary defender in coverage for allowing a reception on both actual receptions and dropped passes. Based on this metric, Robey-Coleman ranked as one of the most efficient slot cornerbacks in man coverage this season:
Robey-Coleman also allowed 2.83 yards per target in man coverage in the slot, by far the lowest rate in the league (next was the Dolphins’ Minkah Fitzpatrick at 4.46 yards per target).
It’s hard to imagine Robey-Coleman replicating those numbers against Edelman. The Patriots will find ways to get the ball in the hands of their veteran slot receiver. However, a few well-timed stops by Robey-Coleman could be enough to stall a few Patriots drives and have a significant impact on the flow of the game.
