Earlier this month I broke down the top wide receiver prospects based on their success on the most common NFL routes. However, the most common routes (curl, out, slant and dig) are not the routes which produce the most big plays.
Here’s a quick run down of the five routes which produced at least 10 yards per target for wide receivers in the NFL in 2018 (data from Sports Info Solutions):
Post, 12.7 yds/target
Deep cross, 11.7
Go,11.6
Seam,11.9
Corner,10.0
Finding receivers who are successful on the most common routes is obviously critical to building a balanced offense. However, you also need some big play threats. So another part of the team building equation is finding the receivers who can contribute on these deeper routes, even though they make up a smaller portion of the offense.
To learn more about which wide receiver prospects might play that role at the next level, let’s check out which players had the most and least success on these routes at the college level. All data is from Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
Before getting into the numbers, I always like to point out that just because a player wasn’t asked to do something in college, doesn’t mean he can’t do it in the NFL. However, a lack of experience often means there’s a steeper learning curve for a prospect before reaching his ceiling. This is where the blending of analytics and traditional scouting comes into play. When the numbers say a player has struggled in a certain area in college, it’s up to the scouts to identify why he struggled and if/how he can adjust at the next level.
Now let’s dig into the numbers. First we’ll take a look at who saw the highest percentage of their targets on these five big-play routes:
Emanuel Hall‘s spot atop this list isn’t a shock considering the offense he played in at Missouri. Even though the Tigers offense took fewer shots downfield in 2018 under Derek Dooley than the previous year with Josh Heupel calling plays, Hall still played the role of deep threat. 19 of Hall’s 58 targets (32.8 percent) came on the go route, and he’ll likely play a similar role the NFL.
Hakeem Butler ran a more well-rounded route tree at Iowa State (more on that in his scouting report here), but the go route was also his his most-targeted route. Given his size, Butler wins in different ways than Hall, but his ability to get downfield should also translate to him being a big-play threat in the NFL.
On the opposite end of the spectrum are these receivers:
Most of the names on this list make sense. Greg Dortch and Parris Campbell are both speedsters who excel at making things happen after the catch. There’s obviously value in that, but it led to them running a small route tree in college as their offensive coordinators focused on getting them the ball in space. For example, Campbell had 50 targets on the screens, drag routes and the jet sweep pass, which accounted for 45 percent of his total targets.
Clemson’s Hunter Renfrow also ran a limited route tree due to the fact that he almost exclusively played in the slot. All 67 of his targets were in the slot in 2018.
Experience on big play routes doesn’t necessarily mean those prospects were successful on their opportunities, however. So here’s a look at the players who averaged the most yards per target on those five routes:
The two most important names here are Hall and Butler, who also appeared on the list of receivers with the most experience on big play routes. So not only were they seeing a high percentage of targets on these routes, but they were cashing in.
Marquise Brown is also a fun name to see on the list. He only had 13 receptions on these five routes, but they resulted in 578 yards. So when he’s getting the ball downfield, he’s producing big plays at a high rate.
Ole Miss’ D.K. Metcalf also deserves a mention here. I left him off the leaderboard because he had just nine targets on these deep routes, but he did produce an impressive 274 yards on those targets. His injury-shortened season make his stats more difficult to decipher, but these are the types of routes on which he’ll be expected to win in the NFL, so it’s encouraging that he produced big numbers on his limited opportunities in college.
On the opposite end of the spectrum are, predictably, mostly guys who shouldn’t hear their name called until Day 3, with one exception:
As previously mentioned, Campbell was used near the line of scrimmage on a significant portion of his routes. So, despite his speed, he doesn’t have a ton of experience breaking free downfield. And when he was asked to run these routes, he struggled. Campbell had just six receptions on 14 targets for 99 on these five routes. This likely means he’s going to have a rough transition to the NFL if he’s asked to do more than the limited role he played for Urban Meyer in Columbus.
DaMarkus Lodge‘s appearance on this list is also concerning. His teammates A.J. Brown (17.2 yds/tgt) and Metcalf (30.4 yds/tgt) excelled on these routes, so we can’t blame his quarterback Jordan Ta’amu. Lodge also had plenty of experience with 29 targets (26.9 percent of his total targets). So this is a concerning stat for Lodge that might indicate a bigger issue that will hold him back at the next level.
So what do these numbers mean?
As I said before, a lack of success and/or experience doesn’t mean things can’t change once these players reach the NFL. But teams should feel more confident in a player’s ability to make a smooth transition if he’s already excelled in that role in the NFL.
For the reason, prospects such as Butler, Hall and Brown will likely be able to make an immediate impact as big-play threats, even if other areas of their game may need some development. Meanwhile, a prospect like Campbell, despite the speed to stretch the field, is more likely to struggle to make an instant impact in that role and may need more time to develop.
