As we’ve gained more access to advanced football stats, one important lesson we’ve learned is the value of forcing the defense to put fewer men in the box when you want to run the ball. This sounds obvious, but historically coaches are terrible at employing this strategy.
For decades, the traditional offensive formation on rushing attempts looked like this: five offensive lineman, one running back, one fullback and at least one tight end. Including the quarterback, that’s nine offensive players in the box. And, of course, that gives the defense the ability to put the same number of defensive players in the box.
I won’t go into the numbers of just how important limiting men in the box is—Five Thirty Eight’s Josh Hermsmeyer did an excellent job detailing that at the NFL level, if you’re interested in the gritty details there. But we should all accept this as fact: the running game is more effective with fewer defenders in the box.
To get fewer men in the box, you need to put fewer offensive players in the box. And the way to do that is by putting three or four receivers on the field. 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) is the most common way to accomplish this and the preferred formation of the most efficient rushing attacks.
So which college coaches are using this strategy effectively? Let’s start with the Big Ten.
But before diving into the numbers, let’s first set the parameters. Since there are a wide variety of college offenses, in order to compare apples to apples I threw out all non-traditional running plays (options, broken play QB scrambles, jet sweeps, etc). What we’re left with are the traditional handoffs to running backs. This doesn’t mean all that other stuff can’t be part of an effective running game (quite the opposite actually), but for this particularly study I just wanted to look at which coaches are putting their running backs in the best position to have success.
All of these stats come from Sports Info Solutions:
Now let’s take take a deeper look at few of the notables teams.
Michigan, 20.8 percent
Remember when Jim Harbaugh, coaching genius, swooped into Ann Arbor to save the Wolverines from a decade of mediocrity? Feels like ages ago.
Harbaugh does have Michigan pointed in the right direction (his impact on the recruiting trail is obvious) but on the field it appears as though the game is passing him by. Perhaps that’s why Michigan has consistently fallen short against its toughest competition, where a coaching disadvantage would matter most.
In 2018, just 20.8 percent of Michigan’s traditional running plays occurred with three or four receivers on the field—the fifth lowest rate among all Power Five schools (and fourth lowest among traditional offenses, since Georgia Tech shouldn’t really count here).
Predictably, the Wolverines running game was significantly more productive when running the ball in the optimal situations:
There is hope for Michigan, however. After using a play-calling-by-committee approach in 2018, Harbaugh hired Josh Gattis away from Alabama to be his offensive coordinator—for more on Gattis check out this piece by The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. It’s Gattis’ first opportunity as an OC, but the 35-year-old former Wake Forest safety is likely to modernize the Michigan offense in ways Harbaugh has failed.
Gattis spent just one season at Alabama, but was on the offensive staff under Joe Moorhead at Penn State the previous two years. Moorhead, who was hired as the head coach at Mississippi State in 2018 is among the most effective coaches in the country at spreading out the defense and creating optimal rushing conditions for his offense. In 2018, Mississippi State ran the ball with three or four receivers on the field on 99.6 percent of their traditional running plays, the second highest rate in the country behind only Mike Leach’s Washington State.
How much Gattis can modernize the offense may depend on Harbaugh’s ability to stay out of his way, but it’s safe to assume Michigan will at least improve in this area, even if Gattis can’t fully replicate Moorhead’s game plan.
Illinois, 90.5 percent
Lovie Smith hasn’t done much right since joining Illinois in 2016, but hiring Rod Smith as his offensive coordinator in 2018 may have been a turning point. Smith spent the previous six seasons as Rich Rodriguez’s offensive coordinator in Arizona, and also worked with Rich Rod as his quarterbacks coach at West Virginia and Michigan.
Under previous offensive coordinator Garrick McGee, the Illini’s traditional rushing plays occurred with three or four receivers on the field just 56.8 percent of the time in 2017. The following year under Smith, that rate rose to 90.5 percent, the sixth highest rate in the nation.
Smith’s approach undoubtedly made an impact on Reggie Corbin’s breakout campaign, as 106 of his 116 traditional rushing attempts occurred in optimal alignments. With Smith calling plays again this year, we should expect Corbin’s success to continue.
Rutgers, 27.9 percent
Chris Ash, what are you doing? If you’re at a school that’s always going to be at a competitive disadvantage due to the lack of in-state talent and general support from a competent athletics department, you better make up for it with cutting-edge coaching strategies. Unfortunately for Rutgers, Ash and offensive coordinator John McNulty are doing the opposite.
Indiana and Illinois represent great examples of what Ash should be doing for the Scarlet Knights. Despite obviously lacking talent, they’re running the ball in optimal situations over 90 percent of the time. That’s not going to completely make up for the talent gap, but it’s definitively closing that gap and improving their chances of having success moving the ball against better defenses.
Rutgers’ 27.9 percent ranked as the ninth lowest in Power Five in 2018. McNulty returns in 2019, so don’t expect any progress from the Scarlet Knights.
Maryland, 45.9 percent
Matt Canada spent just one season at Maryland, originally hired as offensive coordinator and then promoted to interim head coach, and it didn’t go well. Canada has reputation for being difficult to deal with—six different jobs in the last eight seasons supports this—but he’s always maintained a relatively high profile. But is it deserved? In today’s game, probably not.
Canada coaches what would be described as a pro-style offense (translation: out-dated). And unless you’re at a school capable of recruiting high-level talent (like his one season at LSU), it’s probably not going to work. That may have something to do with the reason he’s currently unemployed (although he did reportedly get offered the OC job at Indiana, before turning it down, and had discussions with Pitt about returning there as well).
Canada’s 45.9 percent of traditional runs in optimal situations ranked 51st out of 64 Power Five schools.
There is exciting news for Maryland, however, as new head coach Mike Locksley and offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery are likely to bring a more modern offense with them.
Locksley spent the 2018 season as Alabama’s offensive coordinator, where he ran from optimal formations 60.3 percent of the time, just a tick below the Power Five average.
Montgomery, however, comes from East Carolina. Now you probably don’t think of ECU as a high-powered offense, and for good reason. The Pirates’ rushing attack ranked 11th out of 12 teams in the American last year. But it wasn’t for Montgomery’s inability to give his players an opportunity.
In 2018, ECU ran the ball with three or four receivers on the field 83.3 percent of the time. Compared to Power Five schools, that rate would have ranked 15th, just a tick above Oklahoma State and Ohio State.
Assuming Montgomery brings a similar approach with him to Maryland, Anthony McFarland should be in line for a huge year. If he was able to pick up 7.9 yards per attempt in Canada’s out-dated system, there is an elite ceiling for him in a more modern offense.
