updated 1-17-2012
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1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M – Scouting Report
The Chiefs picked the wrong year to implode. They desperately need a franchise quarterback, especially with a new coach and GM on board, but no one is worthy of the first-overall pick. In fact, there may not even be a quarterback worthy of the first round. While it won’t fix anything for the short term, the best move is to settle for either Joeckel or Werner and hope to answer the quarterback question next year. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State – Scouting Report
The Jaguars are in nearly the same position as the Chiefs. Blaine Gabbert has yet to impress and the new regime has no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. But he’s still young and has yet to be surrounded by the support a young, developing quarterback deserves. Given the Jaguars glaring hole at defensive end, Werner or Moore would be a safe alternative to reaching for a quarterback. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
3. Oakland Raiders – Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M – Scouting Report
With Richard Seymour set to become a free agent and unlikely to return to Oakland, the Raiders most glaring need is the defensive line. In addition to Seymour, Matt Shaughnessy, Andre Carter and Desmond Bryant are also set to hit the open market. Moore is a physical pass rusher who would immediate upgrade the Raiders relatively weak pass rush. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama – Scouting Report
Unless the Eagles want to be the first time to grab a quarterback (unlikely considering Chip Kelly’s offense and the talent on the board) they’re hoping someone else does to allow Luke Joeckel to fall to them. But if Joeckel is off the board, Milliner makes the most sense. This pick becomes even more likely if the Eagles cut ties with one of their expensive and underachieving cornerbacks. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
5. Detroit Lions – Dion Jordan – DE – Oregon – Scouting Report
The Lions may be a candidate to trade up if they’re interested in landing Werner or Moore, both of whom would be excellent fits to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch, who seems to have reached the end of the road, and/or Cliff Avril who is a free agent. If they can’t land one of the top two ends Jordan and Mingo become options. Both have elite potential as pass rushers but Jordan has more experience under his belt and is a safer bet to contribute immediately. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
6. Cleveland Browns – Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia – Scouting Report
Regardless of whether the Browns stick with the 4-3 or transition to a 3-4, Jones is a perfect fit in Cleveland. He has experience in the 3-4 at Georgia but would also be a good fit at the strong-side position in a 4-3 scheme. If Milliner were to fall to No. 6, he would also be a strong possibility for the Browns who need to find another corner to pair with Joe Haden. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
7. Arizona Cardinals – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan – Scouting Report
With Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews returning to school, Eric Fisher’s stock is soaring. While he probably wouldn’t grade out as a top-10 pick based purely on talent, there are too many teams in need of offensive line help for him to slip much further than this. The Cardinals are desperate for offensive line help and would be wise to bring in a left tackle like Fisher before attempting to find their quarterback of the future. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
8. Buffalo Bills – Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia – Scouting Report
There are legitimately five quarterbacks in play here (Smith, Barkley, Wilson, Glennon and Nassib) and all five could be top-10 picks or third rounders. I entertained the idea of placing Nassib here due to his connection to new Bills coach Doug Marrone, who coached Nassib at Syracuse. But ultimately I believe the consensus will have Geno Smith as the top available quarterback. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
9. New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo – LB – LSU – Scouting Report
The Jets have all sorts of issues on the offensive side of the ball but, unless they reach for a quarterback, they won’t find any offensive help in the top 10. Their pass rush is also an issue, however, and there are at least three potential 3-4 linebackers worthy of top-10 consideration. With Jarvis Jones and Dion Jordan off the board, the Jets turn to Mingo. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
10. Tennessee Titans – Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah – Scouting Report
Lotulelei could go as high as number two, but of the Jaguars and Raiders pass he will likely slip down the board. He would be a perfect fit for the Titans, who are looking to add a nose tackle to stick next to Jurrell Casey. 2012 3rd-round pick Mike Martin is a decent option, but of Lotulelei is on the board he would be tough to pass up. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
11. San Diego Chargers – Chance Warmack – OG – Alabama – Scouting Report
Only three teams allowed more sacks than the Chargers in 2012. And with both starting guards set to become unrestricted free agents, it’s safe to assume some changes are coming in San Diego. The Chargers would likely prefer to addressnz the tackle position with Eric Fisher but would gladly settle for Warmach, the best interior lineman to enter the draft in a number of years. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
12. Miami Dolphins – Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee – Scouting Report
There isn’t a consensus as to the top receiver in this year’s class – Patterson, Allen and Hopkins are all in the mix – but whoever establishes themselves between now and April because the favorite to land in Miami. For now, I’ll stick Patterson here due to his big-play ability which would go well with Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Johnthan Banks – CB – Mississippi State – Scouting Report
Despite giving Eric Wright a five-year contract with $15M guaranteed last offseason, the troubled corner is expected to be cut loose this offseason, weakening an already thin secondary. E.J. Biggers and Leonard Johnson performed well, but neither is the type of corner who can match up with the elite receivers in the league. Banks is a notch below Dee Milliner, but does have the potential to develop into a quality starter. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
14. Carolina Panthers – Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio State – Scouting Report
Second-year nose tackle Sione Fua has ranked among the worst interior linemen since being forced into a starting role as a rookie in 2011. There is a perception that Hankins’ stock has fallen due to his sub-par junior year, but a man with his size and athleticism won’t fall far on draft day. He’s this year’s Dontari Poe, and will likely be drafted higher than you might expected based on his on-field performance. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
15. New Orleans Saints – Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri – Scouting Report
The one nice thing about having holes at every single defensive position is the ability to just sit back and wait for the best available player to fall into your lap. The Saints would probably prefer Hankins to plug in at nose tackle, but beggars can’t be choosers. Richardson is a prototypical three-technique and would provide the Saints with a much-needed boost to their pass rush from the interior line. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
16. St. Louis Rams – Jonathan Cooper – OG – North Carolina – Scouting Report
The Rams front office had to be devastated by the news that Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews were headed back to school, which all but guaranteed an offensive tackle worthy of the 16th pick wouldn’t be on the board. The Rams will be praying that either Cooper, Chance Warmack or Eric Fisher falls to them. If all three are gone, they may reach for Lane Johnson or D.J. Fluker. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Xavier Rhodes – CB – Florida State – Scouting Report
The Steelers veteran secondary still gets the job done most of the time, but Ike Taylor, Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark aren’t getting any younger. To make matters worse, Keenan Lewis is an unrestricted free agent. GM Kevin Colbert has a history of filling holes in the draft before they become an issue, making this the ideal time to addressnz the secondary. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
18. Dallas Cowboys – Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama – Scouting Report
The Cowboys will be transitioning to 4-3 defense under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin in 2013. While they actually have the personnel to pull off a fairly smooth transition they will need to fill a few holes and add some depth. Jay Ratliff can still play but he’s 32 years old and isn’t nearly the player he was three years ago. Adding another nose tackle like Williams will shore up their run defense and give them some much needed depth o nthe defensive line. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
19. New York Giants – Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia – Scouting Report
Chase Blackburn failed to prove he was capable of holding down a starting job and the unrestricted free agent may be let go. Fortunately for the Giants there are three potential first-round prospects who could fill their hole at the mike linebacker position. Ogletree is the most athletic of the group which probably makes him the best fit for Perry Fewell’s defense. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
20. Chicago Bears – Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma – Scouting Report
This is a tough call for the Bears. Offensive line is far and away their most glaring need, but depth at the top of the draft is a major weakness at the position this year. Lane Johnson, who played tight end and defensive end before converting to tackle, has only two years of experience on the offensive line. He may not be the quick fix the Bears would like, but it’s a selection that could pay dividends down the road. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU – Scouting Report
The Bengals have one of the youngest, deepest rosters in the league, leaving them with very few holes to fill this offseason. That should free them up to make a luxury pick in the first round. Ansah doesn’t fill a glaring hole in Cincy, but his ability to contribute as a situational pass rusher could give their defense the added dimension they need to get over the hump and become serious contenders. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
22. St. Louis Rams – Keenan Allen – WR – California – Scouting Report
The possibility of taking two offensive lineman is likely out the window due to the lack of depth, which puts all the wide receivers in play here for the Rams. It’s too early to make another more than a guess as to who the Rams would like, but Allen, Terrance Williams and DeAndre Hopkins are all realistic possibilities. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
23. Minnesota Vikings – Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor – Scouting Report
Christian Ponder has shown very little to prove he was worthy of a first-round pick in 2011 but, to be fair, the Vikings haven’t surrounded him with many weapons. Percy Harvin is a game-changer but he isn’t the type of receiver who makes his quarterback better. Williams has the size to be more of the possession receiver Ponder needs but also has enough speed to get down the field. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
24. Indianapolis Colts – Sam Montgomery – DE – LSU – Scouting Report
The Colts are going defense, defense, defense in this year’s draft (potentially with an offensive lineman mixed in somewhere). Montgomery is the best defensive prospect on the board in this scenario which makes him the best fit for the Colts. Prospects at any and every defensive position are in play here. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
25. Seattle Seahawks – John Jenkins – DT – Georgia – Scouting Report
Alan Branch is an unrestricted free agent coming off a somewhat disappointing year. If he’s re-signed, the Seahawks could get creative with this pick and make more of a luxury selection such as a receiver or tight end. But if Branch walks, they need to addressnz the interior line. Jenkins is a prototypical nose tackle who would fit perfectly in the middle of their line. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
26. Green Bay Packers – Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford – Scouting Report
Jermichael Finley inexplicably disappeared from the Packers offense in 2012. And since he’s due a $3.5M roster bonus on top of a $4.5M salary in 2013, his return is definitely not a guarantee. If the Packers part ways with Finley, Ertz and/or Tyler Eifert should be on the board here and either would be a nice replacement, and possibly an upgrade. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
27. Houston Texans -DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson – Scouting Report
Andre Johnson can’t do it alone, especially at the age of 32. The Texans need immediate help at receiver, but would also be wise to bring in a young prospect to learn behind Johnson. Hopkins isn’t the most electric receiver, but his physical style of play and willingness to fight for the ball in traffic would make him an excellent second option. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
28. Denver Broncos – Manti Te’o – LB – Notre Dame – Scouting Report
Te’o suddenly became the most difficult prospect to evaluate in this year’s draft class. The questions raised by the fake girlfriend hoax will undoubtedly play a role in his draft stock (I discussed a few of the reasons here) but it’s impossible to determine which teams will be effected by the story. I’ve dropped him down about 10 spots from where I would have placed him pre-controversy based on the assumption that a contender in the late first-round will be more willing to gamble on him if they believe he fills an immediate hole. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
29. Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Minter – ILB – LSU – Scouting Report
The Ravens got a taste of life without Ray Lewis this season and isn’t wasn’t a fun experience. They clearly lack the depth to survive without him with their current roster. Ideally, they could find a suitable replacement in free agency but if they’re forced to wait until the draft Minter would become an intriguing option here. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
30. San Francisco 49ers – Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas – Scouting Report
Dashon Goldson is coming off a career year and is set to hit the open market. If the 49ers bring him back, Vaccaro is no longer an option but unless they place a franchise tag on Goldson he will likely bolt for a sizeable deal elsewhere. Vaccaro is the top free safety in the draft and would allow the 49ers to fill the void at a relatively cheap price. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
31. New England Patriots -Matt Elam – S – Florida – Scouting Report
The Patriots patchwork secondary improved slightly this year but there are still significant holes to fill. Steve Gregory has gotten the job done at strong safety but it shouldn’t be difficult to find an upgrade on draft day. Elam is the top strong safety prospect in the draft and compares favorably to former Patriot Rodney Harrison. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
32. Atlanta Falcons – Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame – Scouting Report
Matt Ryan is not going to enjoy the post-Tony Gonzalez era if the Falcons can’t find a suitable replacement this offseason. No one in this class can truly compare to Gonzalez, but Eifert would be at least be able to ease to pain of losing the Hall of Famer. [divider top=”0″ style=”solid”]
I disagree with your prediction for the steelers. Harrison, Foote are getting old and may not be back. Pass rush was a big problem for them. Also Troy and Ryan are getting old and Troy is injury prone. They will draft either a OLB, ILB, or safety in 1st round.
I don’t understand how anyone thinks that Jones will go 1st rd let alone top ten with his medical condition.