With around a third of the NFL season in the books, several teams have surprised experts and fans alike. While teams like the Seahawks, Packers, and Patriots have all fared as experts and fans alike expected, the Chargers and Cowboys have vaulted themselves into the Super Bowl mix while the majority of the NFC South has been nothing short of disappointing.
First, the bad. In the NFC South, nobody looks good. The division-leading Panthers only sit at 3-2-1, and the New Orleans Saints sit in second with a sub-.500 record of 2-3. Those Saints were one of the Super Bowl favorites entering the season, but have lost to the surprising Cleveland Browns and needed overtime to beat the truly awful Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The defense that was one of the surprisingly elite units last season has been porous under Rob Ryan, and the offense hasn’t looked like the explosive world-beaters of seasons past. Drew Brees has thrown six interceptions against nine touchdowns, and may be without superstar tight end Jimmy Graham for a crucial stretch as the team seeks to right the ship. Coming into the season with 9/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they now sit at 25/1 according to a number of betting sites on Gambling.com, sandwiched between the Ravens (28/1) and Cardinals (22/1).
Also in the NFC South the Atlanta Falcons have gone from strong bounce back candidates to a 2-4 record, with one of those wins being a blowout of the division-mate Buccaneers. The Bucs are 1-5, and that lone win belies how bad this team, which may be the worst in the NFL, has really been. The aforementioned loss to Atlanta was a 56-14 thrashing and their most recent game was a 48-17 loss to the Ravens that saw Joe Flacco throw five touchdowns in the first 20 minutes of game time. Currently the Bucs have 500/1 Super Bowl odds, among the five worst in the league. Only the Panthers have increased their chances, jumping from 50/1 to the slightly better 35/1. The NFC South is not good, in other words. It might be time for a number of teams in that division to begin perusing the evaluations on this very site to prepare for next season already.
On the flip side, the early third of the season has been a boon to the Cowboys and Chargers. Both are led by surprising MVP candidates that have been shockingly consistent in their play, and both teams have rattled off five consecutive wins after losing their season opener.
In Dallas it has been done on the ground, with DeMarco Murray putting on a historic performance through six games, joining Jim Brown as the only players with 100 yards in each of their first six games to start a season. That elite level of play has helped bring the Cowboys from 66/1 to just 16/1 odds to win it all, and put Murray at 5-1 to be name league MVP.
Were it not for a pair of quarterbacks in the AFC West, Murray would be the top pick for MVP. The only men ahead of him are reigning MVP Peyton Manning (9/2) and the biggest star of the young season, Philip Rivers. The MVP front runner leads the league in quarterback rating (117.6), has a 15/3 TD/INT ratio, and is third in passing yards despite being 20th in attempts per game. During San Diego’s current five-game winning streak, he has thrown at least two touchdowns every game and his QB rating has been 123 or greater. That kind of insanely consistent high-level play has Rivers as a 4/1 favorite for MVP hand has vaulted the Chargers from 40/1 preseason Super Bowl odds into the realm of the elite with 10/1 odds following this weekend’s win over Oakland.
Many preseason favorites have justified predictions this season, and look destined for the postseason. At the same time, an entire division has left the rest of the league puzzled by their struggles while a pair of almost-there teams look to have turned the corner behind breakout performances from star players. How all of these stories play out for the remainder of the season will go a long way in shaping the rest of this NFL season.
Contributed by guest blogger Kelly Mason
