On Wednesday night I was playing around with data from Sports Info Solutions in an effort to put together some charts on demonstrate quarterback accuracy. In doing so, I stumbled upon the realization that Ben Roethlisberger performed far below expectations in 2018.
Here’s the chart I threw together to show Big Ben’s accuracy based on Sports Info Solutions’s on-target data:
As you can see from the chart above, Roethlisberger struggled with accuracy on throws 10 or more yards downfield. And yet, he still put up strong numbers throughout the season.
Given the talent around Roethlisberger, most notably Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, it’s not hard to formulate a guess as to why his overall numbers still fell in line with our expectations for him. On accurate passes, Brown and Smith-Schuster must be converting at a much higher rate than the average receiver, leading to Roethlisberger’s numbers still landing at a strong level.
Based on this assumption, I initially wondered what Big Ben’s numbers might look like next season if the Steelers successfully traded Antonio Brown. I assumed there would be a steep dropoff.
But then I looked at Brown’s numbers.
Shockingly, Brown’s performance did not fall in line with my expectations. I assumed he was catching accurate passes at a high rate, which compensated for Roethlisberger’s lack of accuracy. However, the exact opposite was true.
Here’s a similar chart for Antonio Brown, with his percentile rank in catch rate on catchable passes broken down by target distance:
Brown’s performance was strong on shorter throws, but on anything 10 or more yards downfield, he became a liability. Targets at 10+ yards downfield accounted for 44.6 percent of Brown’s total targets in 2018, so on nearly half of his targets, he was performing at a level far below league average.
So what does this mean for the Steelers’ offseason quest to trade Brown? Should they be more inclined to trade him based on this knowledge?
That’s probably a complicated question. Brown didn’t gain his reputation as an elite receiver for no reason. In 2017, Brown ranked in the 68th percentile on throws 10-19 yards downfield and the 48th percentile on deep balls. In 2016, he ranked in the 88th and 87th percentiles, respectively. So he’s only two years removed from performing at an extremely high level.
The question the Steelers have to ask themselves is: why did his performance drop?
Has he fallen off because he’s getting older? Or because he isn’t happy and therefore isn’t working as hard? And if he’s unhappy and not working as hard, can they make changes from within to get him back to a high level?
I think it’s extremely difficult for anyone outside the organization to answer those questions (and probably not easy for those within either), but these numbers are certainly something for the Steelers to consider. Because if Brown is going to continue to play at his 2018 level or continue his decline, maybe he really isn’t worth the trouble anymore.
