Nick Chubb is coming off one of the best rookie seasons by a running back the Cleveland Browns have seen. While starting only nine games, he fell just four yards short of joining Kevin Mack as the only first-year players in team history to reach the 1,000 yard mark.
Despite his success, some data suggests the Browns may not have been efficiently using Chubb in 2018—and this holds true even when looking at the numbers pre- and post-Hue Jackson.
36.5 percent of Chubb’s rush attempts came when the defense had 8 or more men in the box—among running backs with at least 150 total carries, that was the highest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Chubb fared reasonably well against the loaded box, picking up 3.11 yards per attempt, which ranked 14th out of 28 qualifying running backs. But it’s obviously not ideal for the team to consistently be attempting to run into a mass of defenders at a clip of just over three yards per touch.
One possible explanation for a running back having an elevated rate against a stacked box would be if he were a short-yardage back. However, even when we remove short yardage attempts (two or fewer yards to go on third or fourth down), Chubb still attempted 35.7 percent of his attempts against a loaded box. Here’s what that leaderboard looked like:
On the opposite end of the spectrum from that crew were running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott (17.5 percent) and Todd Gurley (8.9 percent). This begs the question: if some of the best running backs in the league are seeing fewer eight-man boxes, what are those coaches doing differently to trick defenses into sub-optimal formations against their run game?
The answer is fairly simple: they run from three-receiver formations.
In Los Angeles, Sean McVay ran Gurley from a three-receiver set on 97.7 percent of his carries, according to Sports Info Solutions. That was an extreme rate (no one else was above 75 percent), but the majority of the league’s top running backs received at least 50 percent of their carries in three-receiver formations, including Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and others.
Chubb, meanwhile, only carried the ball from a three-receiver set 33.9 percent of the time, the fourth lowest rate in the league.
When given the opportunity to run from a three-receiver set, Chubb picked up 5.6 yards per carry. And it should go without saying, but the overwhelming majority of those attempts came with fewer than eight men in the box.
In addition to putting the right personnel on the field, Freddie Kitchens could further tinker with the playbook by incorporating more motion and misdirection into the offense. Perhaps no one does this better than McVay in Los Angeles.
Here’s an example from Saturday’s victory over the Cowboys in which the Rams fake a reverse to Josh Reynolds, setting up a long run by Gurley:
Watch as Cowboys safety Jeff Heath (No. 38) hesitates at the sight of Reynolds just long enough for left tackle Andrew Whitworth to get to him at the second level. Without the added motion in the backfield, Heath is likely a step quicker to react to Gurley, and meets him in the hole for a short gain.
These types of plays are common in college offenses, but have been slow to trickle up to the NFL. However, McVay—and likely the slew of coaches already hired off his tree—will continue to prove their value in the coming years.
Freddie Kitchens fixed a lot of issues with the Browns offense, but this was one area he did not addressnz after taking over. In fact, Chubb’s rate of running into a loaded box actually increased after Kitchens took the reigns in Week 9. For all the good Kitchens accomplished in 2018, this shows that there’s still room for him to grow as a play-caller, and potentially an area where new offensive coordinator Todd Monken can help further modernize the offense.
