The Miami Dolphins are in an awkward position this offseason. As currently constructed, they’re not awful. Ryan Tannehill is 42-46 as a starter during his time with Miami. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear as though he’s going to elevate them to another level anytime soon.
So despite finishing at 7-9 this year, Miami is probably headed towards a full rebuild. That means this offseason may be about tearing down the roster more than building it.
Assuming that’s the Dolphins strategy, their goal shouldn’t be to plug any holes with short-term fixes. Instead, they should be dumping salary, acquiring draft picks via trades, and trying to stockpile young players to develop and build around.
Quarterback
Tannehill has two years remaining on his contract but he’s expected to be traded or released this offseason for two reasons.
The obvious reason is the Dolphins can save $18.8M off the cap if the release him (with a post-June 1 designation), according to Spotrac. A pre-June 1 release or trade would save $13.2M.
The other more controversial reason is because (despite denying it publicly) all signs point to the Dolphins tanking.
Basically, the Dolphins have reached the point where they realized Tannehilll isn’t good enough to carry a team, but he’s isn’t bad enough to allow the team to land a top draft pick. So if they want to get into position to snag a legitimate franchise quarterback, they need to intentionally put a bad a quarterback on the field.
There has been some early speculation that the Dolphins could draft a quarterback this year, but I suspect that’s unlikely. Dwayne Haskins is highly unlikely to be on the board, which means they would be choosing between Kyler Murray or another quarterback who’s ceiling isn’t any higher than Tannehill.
Personally, I think Murray would be a solid choice, but Dolphins GM Chris Grier is unlikely to agree.
When non-traditional quarterbacks enter the draft, we can usually narrow down the list of GMs who will consider them based on their track record. Take Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome as an example. Before drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, he had previously spent late-round picks on Troy Smith and Tyrod Taylor. He also signed Steve McNair and Randall Cunningham late in their careers. He hadn’t heavily invested in a mobile quarterback before, but he had dipped his toe in the water many times, showing an obvious interest.
As for Grier, here’s the list of quarterbacks the Dolphins have drafted or signed during his time as GM and Director of Scouting: John Beck, Chad Henne, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Chad Pennington, Jay Cutler, Brock Osweiler, Trent Green, Brandon Doughty and Tyler Thigpen.
Tannehill is actually a decent athlete, but as a whole, that group is as stiff and immobile as it gets. It’s also a very tall group of quarterbacks. Clearly Grier has an imagine of what a quarterback looks like in his head, and it’s the exact opposite of Kyler Murray.
If Grier drafts a quarterback this year, I’d bet on it being someone like Drew Lock or Daniel Jones on Day 2.
Edge-Rusher
Free agent Cameron Wake is coming off a strong season but a return doesn’t make sense for either side. He won’t be around long enough to help the Dolphins once the rebuilding is complete. And from his perspective, he’d probably prefer to land with a contending team.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Wake finished second behind only Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan in pressure rate at 16.6 percent.
That type of production won’t be easy to replace so it might make sense for the Dolphins to invest multiple draft picks in the position. Robert Quinn, who ranked 20th in the pressure rate in 2018, returns but is only under contract through the end of 2019. So they’ll likely need to replace him next year as well.
Offensive Line
If the Dolphins are going to tear it down and tank for a quarterback, they should follow the blueprint of the Cleveland Browns. While Sashi Brown took a lot of heat and eventually lost his job, it’s clear now that his strategy worked.
Rather than get his quarterback early in the rebuilding process, when the team would still be terrible, Brown invested heavily on other key areas so that the team would be ready to compete once they landed their quarterback. This allows them to get the most out of Baker Mayfield’s rookie contract years.
One of Brown’s notable moves was to invest heavily in veteran offensive linemen (J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler). The Dolphins would be wise to approach this year’s offseason similarly.
For starters, this means re-signing right tackle Ja’Wuan James.
James is one of the better linemen on the market and they might need to overpay. But if the plan is to build around a quarterback on a rookie contract, it makes sense to spend the money saved at that position in areas that will directly benefit him.
The Dolphins should also addressnz the interior offensive line. 32-year-old guard Josh Sitton and 31-year-old center Daniel Kilgore are both coming off season-ending injuries. Given their age and the uncertainty about their return from injury, it would be wise for the Dolphins to invest in some young draft picks to groom behind them.
Wide Receiver
The Dolphins entire receiving corps returns under contract, however, two of their leading targets, Danny Amendola and Devante Parker, are both in the final years of their deals. Two others, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, are also potentially in the final year due to the money Miami could save ($16.5M combined) by cutting them after the 2019 season.
Given the uncertainty of the receiving corps’ future, Miami could be in the market for any type of receiver.
According to Sports Info Solutions, no one on the Dolphins roster had more than four receptions on targets 20 yards downfield in 2018. So perhaps finding a young deep threat could be one of their priorities.
