It’s still really early in the process, but I’m already getting the sense that Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is close to a first-round lock for the 2019 or 2020 NFL draft.
After watching a few games from his 2017 season, it’s clear that Herbert checks off a lot of the basic boxes in terms of size, mobility and arm strength—the three traits which just landed Josh Allen in the top-10, despite being deficient in every other category.
On top of having the traits you can’t teach, Herbert already has a more developed game than Allen, most notably in his ball placement.
Here’s a throw from Oregon’s game against Arizona State in 2017 where Herbert’s placement really stands out. Despite solid coverage from the Arizona State cornerback, Herbert places this back on the back shoulder of wide receiver Dillon Mitchell where only Mitchell can make a play on the ball.
Here’s another example of a play where Herbert places the ball perfectly for his receiver, and this time does so despite not being able to set his feet to throw. Again, the defender is in position but Herbert knows his 6’5″ tight end Jacob Breeland is the only one who can get this ball if he throws it slightly over his head.
Obviously there’s a long way to go before Justin Herbert is truly able to cement himself as a first-round prospect, but a 6’5″ quarterback who can make these types of throws during his sophomore year is a very good bet to be coveted by the NFL in the near future.
