Hakeem Butler was one of the biggest stories of the NFL combine, measuring 6’5″ and running a 4.48 40-yard dash. That blend of size and speed gives him a rare ceiling that most prospects simply lack the measurables to attain.
Adding to Butler’s intrigue is his performance on the field, where he racked up over 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns during his junior year at Iowa State. His season especially took off after highly-touted freshman quarterback Brock Purdy took over in October.
Given his measurables and performance, there’s no question Butler’s ceiling is as high as any receiver in this draft class. But how close is he to reaching that ceiling? Let’s take a look at a few key areas of his game to find out.
Route Running
Butler is a steady route runner and shows signs of further developing in this area. There are moments where he’ll add subtle fakes and vary his speed within the stem of his routes, which can create just enough separation for him to hold a significant advantage.
On deep routes, Butler has the speed to stretch the field but is not explosive off the line of scrimmage. He takes time to build up momentum and rarely separates from man coverage unless the cornerback makes an egregious mistake. He also tends to initiate contact—which isn’t inherently a poor choice, given his size—but he has the athleticism to minimize contact and should opt for that route more often.
It’s worth mentioning that Butler has the skill set that doesn’t require the ability to create consistent separation. With his size and ability to compete for the ball, he should be considered an “always open” receiver. So any further development he makes in this area is just an added bonus.
Iowa State used Butler throughout the route tree, on the outside and in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, he was targeted at least five times on 10 different types of routes.
Contested Catches
Where Butler really stands out is just after the ball is released. His ability to track the ball and position his body to make a play is spectacular. He has elite awareness in this area of the game, seemingly always knowing where the sideline and the closest defender are, and positioning himself accordingly.
Despite his elite skills in terms of body control and field awareness, Butler does have room to improve in this area. Far too often, Butler is a passive receiver, letting the ball come to him rather than going up with his hands to pluck it from the air.
Even on many of his big plays, Butler failed to become the aggressor in the situation, letting the ball come to him:
When Butler is aggressive, he often comes down with the ball, so there is potential for growth in this area. But his tendency to let the ball come into him—often all the way into his chest—will lead to plays being broken up when he was originally in position to have the upper hand.
Hands
This area is the big concern for Butler. Despite massive mitts (they measured 10 ¾ inches at the combine), Butler had the highest drop rate of any receiver in this draft class in 2018:
No matter how much you like other aspects of Butler’s game, this issue is a massive dark cloud hanging over his draft stock.
As you can imagine, given the size of his hands, Butler is capable of snagging some difficult balls, such as this touchdown against Oklahoma State:
Despite the potential for difficult catches, Butler’s issues seem to be a mixture focus and technique. As previously mentioned, he can be too passive at times, letting the ball into his chest unnecessarily. Other times, there simply seems to be a lack of focus, as he doesn’t get his hands into proper position and simply lets the ball fly through his arms.
Obviously any receiver on the verge of entering the NFL knows the proper hand positioning to catch a football, and has for years. So while this could be considered a technique issue, it’s really about focus. He knows what to do, he just needs to focus and execute in the moment.
Here’s a sampling of a few of his worst efforts:
Final Thoughts
Everyone loves big receivers with speed, so it’s no surprise that many fans are projecting big things for Hakeem Butler’s future.
On the high end of his projection, Butler could develop into a Mike Evans type playmaker, who has the speed to stretch the field but also the size, body control and hands to be an elite red zone threat.
Due to his inconsistent technique which leads to a concerning drop rate, the low end of Butler’s projection is a Kenny Britt type receiver—someone who flashes exciting potential, but can never earn the full trust of his quarterback and coaching staff to develop into a true No. 1.
The good news is: even on the low end of Butler’s projection, he should be a contributing player. In other words, there’s a very low risk of him turning into a complete bust, provided he’s selected in a reasonable range (mid-first to early second round).
Given Butler’s strengths and weaknesses at this stage of his career, he probably fits best on the outside where he can stretch the field. He does have potential to also contribute as a big slot receiver, but those types of receivers need elite hands (think Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Thomas) and Butler clearly is not that type of receiver right now.
If your favorite team takes Butler (probably somewhere in the range of the 15th to 40th pick), expect to be both thrilled and frustrated by him in 2019. He has the skill set to dominate certain matchups and should have some big games, but those drops aren’t going to disappear overnight.
