One of the most fascinating prospects in the 2019 NFL draft class is Ole Miss wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. Blessed with a tantalizing blend of size and speed, it’s hard not to let your imagination run wild with ideas of what he could do for an NFL offense.
Reality, however, is a little more sobering, as Metcalf’s underdeveloped skill set and marginal lateral agility pose some obstacles between where he stands today and that Calvin Johnson-like ceiling.
To get a better feel for what he is now and what he can become down the road, let’s take a closer look at a few important areas of Metcalf’s game.
Route Running
D.K. Metcalf was not asked to run a full route tree at Ole Miss, or really anything close to it. Whenever this is the case, I like to point out that not doing something in college doesn’t mean a player can’t do it in the NFL. However, it does mean his learning curve will be more steep than some of his peers, and NFL coaching staffs aren’t exactly known for their patience.
Here’s a breakdown of his most targeted routes in 2018:
The curl/go combo is a pretty simplistic one, and it accounted for nearly 50 percent of his routes at Ole Miss. This technique simply required Metcalf to explode off the line of scrimmage, and either keep on chugging downfield or put on the breaks and curl back to his quarterback. It also requires no lateral agility, something which Metcalf obviously struggled with at the NFL combine.
As a bigger receiver at 6’3″ and 228 pounds, Metcalf will be expected to run a much higher percentage of post, corner, fade routes. These are the routes teams frequently use to put bigger receivers in favorable position to battle for contested catches, since they’re unlikely to create significant separation with pure athleticism. That combination of routes (post/corner/fade) only accounted for 9.8 percent of Metcalf’s targets in 2018. This is far below the rate of other big receivers in this class such as J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (35.0 percent), Miles Boykin (33.3 percent) and Hakeem Butler (27.5 percent).
On a positive note, Metcalf does have nice footwork off the line of scrimmage, giving him the ability to beat press coverage. That’s a significant piece of the puzzle for him, as he is the type of receiver likely to attract a decent amount of press versus teams who play a high percentage of man coverage. Metcalf’s touchdown versus Alabama cornerback Saivion Smith is perhaps the best example of his footwork off the snap:
Hands
Metcalf finished his career with a 9.5 percent drop rate (drops / rec + drops) according to Sports Info Solutions. That falls roughly in the middle of the pack—not high enough to cause concern, but not low enough to call it a strength. As a big receiver it would be nice to see Metcalf demonstrate more consistency in this area. Many of his drops are easily catchable balls on which he just loses focus, such as the example below:
Since Metcalf likely won’t generate a ton of separation on short and intermediate routes, he needs to develop the hands to quickly snatch the ball from the air and tuck it away. If he doesn’t improve upon this, it will hold him back from reaching his ceiling.
Contested Catches
This is the area where a receiver with Metcalf’s size and strength should dominate. And while it probably falls into the “strengths” category for him, he doesn’t win at a rate consistent with expectations based on his physical build. Metcalf has the height and leaping ability to win a fair amount of contested catches based on those traits alone. But he’s still developing an ability to position is body to box out defensive backs and time his jump to snag the ball at his highest point. Even on open receptions, his timing is frequently off—his most common mistake is jumping a split second too early.
Pointing out this deficiency is nitpicking a little, but it’s a detail that could be the difference between Metcalf reaching an All-Pro level ceiling, and just being a solid No. 2 weapon.
Final Thoughts
Metcalf’s combination of size and speed gives him a high floor and virtually guarantees him a valuable role in an NFL offense. From the beginning of his rookie year, he’ll be able to stretch the field and his future team should expect him to produce a few big plays in 2019.
Whether or not he reaches another level beyond being a complementary deep threat will depend on his ability to develop skills throughout the route tree. Despite having impressive speed, he is not an exceptional natural athlete and isn’t going to lose NFL cornerbacks with his explosiveness out of cuts. To make up for that, he will need to perfect his routes and develop subtle fakes to set up defensive backs for false steps.
As previously mentioned, his footwork off the line of scrimmage is an indicator that Metcalf will be capable of developing those skills. But it will take work on his part and patience from his coaching staff. As a result, landing in the right situation could be critical to his success. He may not succeed if he doesn’t have the right support around him during the developmental process.
On the high end of his projection, Metcalf could become a Calvin Johnson type receiver, who impacts the game as a dangerous deep threat, but is also a red zone weapon, a threat after the catch and can work all levels of the field throughout the route tree. On the low end, Metcalf will be a Martavis Bryant, a big receiver who can stretch the field but does little else.
