John Dorsey’s second draft as general manager of the Cleveland Browns couldn’t have been more different than his first. Aside from the obvious difference in where the Browns were selecting, the goals have changed dramatically in 12 months. Dorsey is no longer rebuilding a roster, he’s attempting to turn a playoff contender into a Super Bowl contender.
With that goal in mind, Dorsey needed to adjust his focus to players who could step in and contribute immediately. Long-term developmental prospects, at least in the first few rounds, held little value for the Browns this year. And Dorsey’s selections reflected that. It’s likely he landed two immediate starters from his seven selections.
As I run through the Browns draft haul, I’m going to focus on two questions:
Where does he fit in Cleveland? Since the Browns are trying to win now, we want to know how these prospects are going to contribute, especially in the short term.
Why was he available? The Browns didn’t own a first-round pick, which means everyone they drafted is flawed. Perfect prospects don’t fall to the second day and beyond. So I’ll attempt to identify why these prospects didn’t have higher grades from the other 31 franchises.
For most prospects I also include some of the most relevant stats from Sports Info Solutions. All stats are from SIS unless otherwise noted.
2nd Round: Greedy Williams – CB – LSU
Where he fits in Cleveland: The Browns have solid depth at cornerback, so Greedy Williams is not guaranteed a starting job. Terrance Mitchell, and possibly Eric Murray or T.J. Carrie, will challenge him for the role, but Williams does look like the favorite to start opposite Denzel Ward. How likely he is to win that job may partially depend on what the Browns defense looks like under new DC Steve Wilks.
As the Cardinals head coach in 2018, Wilks used man coverage on just 27.9 percent of opponents’ dropbacks, the third lowest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. I’ve already written about how that’s bad news for Denzel Ward, who has minimal experience in zone, and the same applies to Williams.
In 2018 at LSU, Williams was in zone for just 25 percent of the targets he faced in coverage, so his skill set in zone is a bit of an unknown.
Entering the year with a first and second-year cornerback is likely to yield some inconsistent results in the secondary, especially given Williams’ and Ward’s inexperience in zone. So if Wilks plans to stick to his zone-heavy scheme, the team may have some trepidation in giving Williams the starting job unless he handily beats out Mitchell.
Regardless of how Williams fits into the Browns plans immediately, he will be expected to eventually start opposite Ward. If the duo lives up to lofty expectations, they could become the Browns best cornerback duo since Frank Minnifield and Hanford Dixon in the 1980s.
Why he was available: If you watched the NFL draft, you probably heard some talking heads suggest Williams’ poor tackling efforts led to his somewhat unexpected draft-day tumble. There’s probably there an ounce of truth to that, but it isn’t the full story.
Following the draft, John Dorsey said in response to this criticism, “corners are paid to cover.”
He is absolutely right and the entire league agrees with him. There’s no shortage of sloppy tacklers at the cornerback position, and if they can cover, no one cares. In fact, just last year Ward entered the league as the overwhelming consensus No. 1 cornerback in the draft despite worse tackling numbers than Williams:
The real concern with Williams is that when he does get beat—which isn’t too often—he tends to surrender big plays. Williams allowed 16.2 yards per reception in 2018, the second worst rate among cornerbacks who were drafted this year. For comparison, Ward allowed just 11.8 yards per reception in 2017 at OSU.
On routes that tend to yield more big plays downfield (post, corner, fade and go routes), Williams allowed eight receptions on 26 targets for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers don’t look too scary on the surface, but only 10 of the 26 targets were catchable. So on those routes with catchable targets, Williams allowed an 80 percent catch rate. Ward checked in at 50 percent on those routes in 2017.
None of those numbers should make Browns fans worried about Williams, but his uneven performance in coverage probably led some GMs to view him as more of a high-upside project than a sure thing.
3rd Round: Sione Takitaki – LB – Utah
Where he fits in Cleveland: Sione Takitaki is the definition of a high-energy player. He’s all over the field and has the skills to make an impact in every facet of the game. He finished third on BYU in QB pressures in 2018, led the team in tackles and also contributed in coverage. With that skill set, it’s possible to envision him playing any of the three linebacker positions in Cleveland. However, it sounds like he’s going to get plugged in as the starting strong-side linebacker.
Browns assistant GM Eliot Wolf had this to say about the state of the team’s linebacking corps: “Joe (Schobert) is two years removed from a Pro Bowl. Christian (Kirksey) had an unfortunate injury thing happen last year, but we still think he can be productive. Genard (Avery) is a guy who is going to fit into the defense someway, whether it is rushing or playing off the ball.”
That description of each veteran’s role makes it sound like Avery is not expected to earn a starting job, which probably means Takitaki is the favorite for that role.
Assuming Takitaki does win the “starting” job, the real question will be: does he also play over Kirksey? Last year in Arizona, Wilks played two or fewer linebackers on 46.7 percent of snaps. So who’s the odd man out in those situations?
When only two linebackers are on the field, the defense is typically expecting a pass based on the offensive personnel. In those situations, Schobert is going to stay on the field, so the decision will come down to Kirksey and Takitaki.
When healthy, Kirksey has been a quality coverage linebacker, so he will likely have an edge over Takitaki in the early going. If he can’t regain his form, however, there could be a change in roles at some point this season.
Why he was available: Takitaki was kicked off the football team at BYU before his freshman season even started. He was later reinstated, but was suspended three more times, took a year off from football and then finally returned and showed some stability late in his college career. He was named a team captain in 2018 and reportedly has straightened up his off-field life. However, it would be understandable if some GMs simply weren’t willing to spend a Day 2 pick on a player with an unreliable past.
Some teams also likely had lower grades on Takitaki because his on-field play can be a bit of a mess too. He plays at full speed 100 percent of the time—which sounds nice and occasionally makes him jump out on film, but it also leads to undisciplined play. If he sees significant playing time in 2018, expect to be frustrated watching him bite on misdirection.
Round 4: Sheldrick Redwine – S – Miami FL
Where he fits in Cleveland: After addressnzing cornerback and linebacker with the first two picks, depth at safety was arguably the Browns’ most glaring immediate need. In the short term, he’ll play special teams, backup Damarious Randall and/or Morgan Burnett at the safety positions, and potentially be groomed for a future starting role.
Redwine also has some experience at cornerback, which gives him added value as a reserve on the depth chart. His ability to match up with big slot receivers and tight ends is where he’ll offer the most help immediately and in the long term.
Randall is a free agent after the 2019 season and Burnett has an easy out in his contract if the Browns decide to move on after just one year. So if things go well for Redwine in 2019 (or poorly for the others), he could compete for a starting job by 2020.
It’s hard to not be a little skeptical of this selection given the Browns’ recent history of favoring Miami players. Alonzo Highsmith and Eliot Wolf both graduated from Miami and their connection to the school has created an obvious bias. Last year it led to the disastrous selection of edge-rusher Chad Thomas in the third round. Thomas barely saw the field and will have to battle for a roster spot this summer.
Following the draft, Dorsey called Redwine a “secure open-field tackler” which also raises a red flag on this selection because it simply isn’t true. According to Pro Football Focus, Redwine racked up 25 missed tackles over the last two seasons. If the GM can’t accurately brag about his draft pick, what does that say about the player?
Why he was available: As previously mentioned, the biggest knock on Redwine’s performance in college was his tackling. That isn’t the most important trait for a safety, but they’re often the last line of defense, so it certainly helps to have someone you trust back there.
Redwine is also a bit of a one-year wonder. In 2017, despite playing on a Miami defense loaded with talent, Redwine was often the weak link. In coverage, he allowed 23 receptions on 40 targets (57.5 percent) and a passer rating against of 92.9, according to Sports Info Solutions. In 2018, his completion percentage allowed dropped to 48 percent with a passer rating against of 63.3.
The improvement is encouraging, but it never hurts to maintain a bit of skepticism for players who suddenly turn it on during their final year in college.
Round 5: Mack Wilson – LB – Alabama
Where he fits in Cleveland: In the short term, Wilson should be plugged in as Joe Schobert’s backup and see some action on special teams. He’s capable of lining up at the other linebacker positions, but between Kirksey, Tatitaki and Avery, there probably won’t be any available snaps there either. Browns fans should probably be hoping to see very little of Wilson in 2019—that will be mean the rest of the depth chart stayed healthy.
In the long term, Wilson has the potential to develop into a starter. Schobert is a free agent after the 2019 season, so if the coaching staff likes what they see from Wilson on the practice field, it’s conceivable that they could let Schobert walk and Wilson will take over in 2020.
In terms of raw talent, you can’t expect much more from a fifth-round selection. Entering 2019, there were high expectations for Wilson based on what he showed early in his career at Alabama but he failed to take the next step in his development. The talent is still there though, so the Browns staff will try to take his game to the next level.
Why was he available: Wilson is not an elite athlete and it showed on the field at Alabama’s pro day. Those poor numbers raised a red flag for a prospect who also displayed issues diagnosing plays and often found himself out of position. If a linebacker can’t read the play as it develops, he better have blazing speed to recover from his mistakes. In Wilson’s case, he’s lacking in both areas.
There could also be some off-field issues that led to Wilson’s fall. Nick Saban has a reputation for being a great evaluator of his own players and is honest with NFL teams. So when an Alabama player unexpectedly falls, you can usually bet Saban had something to say about him. I said the same thing about Reuben Foster’s shocking slide in 2017 and, well, you know the rest of that story.
It turns out, this may be the case for Wilson also. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said “attitude issues” caused one team to remove Wilson from their board. Former NFL scout Bryan Broaddus (via Laurie Horesh) also attributed Wilson’s fall to “character/attitude” issues.
Since we know Dorsey has compete disregard for off-field issues, he was probably eager to jump at the chance to land a top-100 talent in the fifth round.
Round 5: Austin Seibert – K – Oklahoma
Where he fits in Cleveland: The hardest position on the field to scout is kicker. There’s seemingly no rhyme or reason behind player development at the position. An elite college kicker like Roberto Aguayo (Buccaneers’ 2016 second-round pick) can enter the NFL and flame out within a year. Meanwhile afterthoughts like Phil Dawson can bounce from practice squad to practice squad before landing a job and kicking for 20 years.
I can understand snagging a kicker with a 7th-round pick if it’s a position of need, but drafting one before the final round is simply a sign of arrogance. Dorsey isn’t any better at scouting kickers than anyone else. And Seibert isn’t any more likely to have a productive career than a handful of undrafted free agents who will compete for jobs this year.
The selection of Seibert is particularly concerning because he doesn’t even have the college production to support this selection. In four years at Oklahoma Siebert hit just one field goal from 50 yards and was 10-17 from 40 yards and beyond.
He’s obviously expected to win the starting job, but nothing is guaranteed with a rookie kicker.
Why he was available: He’s a kicker.
Round 6: Drew Forbes – OG – SE Missouri State
Where he fits in Cleveland: Drew Forbes was a three-year starter at left tackle but the Browns are already talking about moving him inside to guard. Joel Bitonio is locked in at left guard and 2018 second-round pick Austin Corbett is expected to start at right guard, despite barely seeing the field as a rookie.
With the starting jobs virtually locked up for the foreseeable future, Forbes will be groomed to provide depth.
While they’re talking about him as a guard, it would not be surprising to see the Browns give him some snaps at right tackle and center this summer. Backup linemen who can play multiple positions hold significantly more value. The more roles Forbes can fill, the more likely he is to stick around.
Why he was available: Making the jump from SE Missouri State to the NFL isn’t easy. Making that leap while also shifting to the interior offensive line is even more difficult.
Forbes was viewed as a guard by most teams, including the Browns, due to his lack of length (32 ¾” arms). But he also doesn’t have the dominant strength it takes to hold up against NFL defensive tackles. There’s a big difference in the type of physical play he faced against FCS edge-rushers and what he’ll see from NFL interior linemen, so it likely won’t be smooth transition.
2019 will probably be a purely developmental year for Forbes before he’s given an opportunity to win a more substantial role in 2020.
Round 7: Donnie Lewis – CB – Tulane
Where he fits in Cleveland: After the selection of Donnie Lewis, the Browns have 12 cornerbacks on the roster. At most, they’ll carry six on the 53-man roster, which means half of the depth chart needs to be cut between now and September. Unless he wows the team during training camp, that’s likely to include Lewis.
With 44 starts under his belt at Tulane, Lewis has plenty of experience but didn’t really turn in an NFL-worthy performance until his senior year. According to Sports Info Solutions, Lewis’ QB rating against in coverage dropped from 96.9 in his sophomore campaign to 90.4 during his junior year before finally improving to 65.6 during his final season in 2018.
Lewis has always been a boom-or-bust defender at Tulane, hauling in eight interceptions over the last three seasons but also allowing 14 touchdowns, including four during his senior year.
Ward, Williams, T.J. Carrie, Terrance Mitchell and Eric Murray are likely locked into roster spots. At most, there’s room for one more cornerback on the roster and Lewis will need to shine on special teams in order to win that role.
Why he was available: As previously mentioned, Lewis’ play was inconsistent at Tulane and he never really showed up when he had an opportunity to showcase his skills. Against Tulane’s toughest competition in 2018 (Ohio State, Memphis, Cincinnati and Houston), Lewis allowed a QB rating in coverage of 97.9.
As a late-round prospect, he will also be expected to play special teams and Lewis may lack the size and physical play for that role. He checked in at 190 pounds at his pro day, which is promising, but he looks skinny on the field and likely played closer to 180 in college.
All stats from Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
