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Surprises Good and Bad Abound In NFL’s First Six Weeks

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With around a third of the NFL season in the books, several teams have surprised experts and fans alike. While teams like the Seahawks, Packers, and Patriots have all fared as experts and fans alike expected, the Chargers and Cowboys have vaulted themselves into the Super Bowl mix while the majority of the NFC South has been nothing short of disappointing.

First, the bad. In the NFC South, nobody looks good. The division-leading Panthers only sit at 3-2-1, and the New Orleans Saints sit in second with a sub-.500 record of 2-3. Those Saints were one of the Super Bowl favorites entering the season, but have lost to the surprising Cleveland Browns and needed overtime to beat the truly awful Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The defense that was one of the surprisingly elite units last season has been porous under Rob Ryan, and the offense hasn’t looked like the explosive world-beaters of seasons past. Drew Brees has thrown six interceptions against nine touchdowns, and may be without superstar tight end Jimmy Graham for a crucial stretch as the team seeks to right the ship. Coming into the season with 9/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they now sit at 25/1 according to a number of betting sites on Gambling.com, sandwiched between the Ravens (28/1) and Cardinals (22/1).

Also in the NFC South the Atlanta Falcons have gone from strong bounce back candidates to a 2-4 record, with one of those wins being a blowout of the division-mate Buccaneers. The Bucs are 1-5, and that lone win belies how bad this team, which may be the worst in the NFL, has really been. The aforementioned loss to Atlanta was a 56-14 thrashing and their most recent game was a 48-17 loss to the Ravens that saw Joe Flacco throw five touchdowns in the first 20 minutes of game time. Currently the Bucs have 500/1 Super Bowl odds, among the five worst in the league. Only the Panthers have increased their chances, jumping from 50/1 to the slightly better 35/1. The NFC South is not good, in other words. It might be time for a number of teams in that division to begin perusing the evaluations on this very site to prepare for next season already.

On the flip side, the early third of the season has been a boon to the Cowboys and Chargers. Both are led by surprising MVP candidates that have been shockingly consistent in their play, and both teams have rattled off five consecutive wins after losing their season opener.

In Dallas it has been done on the ground, with DeMarco Murray putting on a historic performance through six games, joining Jim Brown as the only players with 100 yards in each of their first six games to start a season. That elite level of play has helped bring the Cowboys from 66/1 to just 16/1 odds to win it all, and put Murray at 5-1 to be name league MVP.

Were it not for a pair of quarterbacks in the AFC West, Murray would be the top pick for MVP. The only men ahead of him are reigning MVP Peyton Manning (9/2) and the biggest star of the young season, Philip Rivers. The MVP front runner leads the league in quarterback rating (117.6), has a 15/3 TD/INT ratio, and is third in passing yards despite being 20th in attempts per game. During San Diego’s current five-game winning streak, he has thrown at least two touchdowns every game and his QB rating has been 123 or greater. That kind of insanely consistent high-level play has Rivers as a 4/1 favorite for MVP hand has vaulted the Chargers from 40/1 preseason Super Bowl odds into the realm of the elite with 10/1 odds following this weekend’s win over Oakland.

Many preseason favorites have justified predictions this season, and look destined for the postseason. At the same time, an entire division has left the rest of the league puzzled by their struggles while a pair of almost-there teams look to have turned the corner behind breakout performances from star players. How all of these stories play out for the remainder of the season will go a long way in shaping the rest of this NFL season.

Contributed by guest blogger Kelly Mason

Zach Martin Scouting Report

Scouting Reports - 2014, Uncategorized
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Zach Martin OL Notre Dame #70
Ht: 6’4″
Wt: 308

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Size/Athleticism: Lacks ideal height. Athleticism is only average for a tackle, but quick footwork would be an asset if shifted inside to guard. Seems to struggle with balance, which especially hurts his play in pass protection at tackle. Short arms, especially for a tackle, and it shows up in his game.

Pass Protection: Lacks the long arms and elite upper body strength to swallow up defenders and completely take them out of the play. Once he’s engaged, he battles hard but he’ll the battle on occasion. Looks awkward trying to slide outside with edge-rushers. He’s fundamentally sound but he just isn’t quick enough. When the outer limits of his ability to kick out are tested he looks awkward and tends to get upright and out of position. Fairly strong lower body allows him to handle himself the bull rush, but it’s a challenge and he often loses leverage as the battle goes on.

Run Blocking: Not strong enough to be a dominant road grader but is technically sound and can be effective. Quick off the snap and delivers a nice initial pop. He’s a fighter and always plays through the whistle. Shows great awareness and doesn’t get lost in space. Looks fluid getting to the second level. Takes smart angles and diagnoses his assignment quickly. Lacks the mobility to adjust if he’s attacking a moving linebacker in space.

Intangibles: Plenty of experience as a four-year starter. Team captain as a junior and senior.

Durability: Started 52 games with no known issues.

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Comments: Martin is a smart lineman and technically sound in all aspects of the game. But he lacks the athleticism to play tackle in the pros. My biggest concern is his lack of balance, which really showed when facing more powerful edge-rushers such as Ziggy Ansah. I think most of his flaws can be masked at guard, because he can handle bull-rushers, he simply lacks the ability to handle the dominant punch delivers from strong edge rushers who can build momentum before engaging. That said, his power is still a concern and there are too many questions to warrant a first-round selection.

Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch

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We are still about 2 months away from the 2014 NFL draft, but people are already looking forward to what this crop of rookies will bring to the table. People who play in one day fantasy leagues might be a little hesitant to draft a rookie from the very beginning, but they could be impact players by the middle of the season. It is hard to predict what type of success players will have before they are actually on a specific team, but here are a few players poised to be breakout stars from day one.

Quarterback – Blake Bortles

There are 3 quarterbacks who seem to be thought of as franchise type of quarterbacks. Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Bortles all expect to hear their name called within the 1st 10 picks of the draft. However, it seems as though Bortles will be the most NFL-ready at this point in time. Not only is he the biggest and strongest quarterback of the bunch, but he has shown quite a bit of poise as a pocket passer so far in his career. He might not have the same type of ceiling as the other 2 players, but look for him to be the best option in one day fantasy leagues in 2014 at that position.

Running Back – Ka’Deem Carey

There are not a lot of people very high on the upcoming running back rookie class, but every season there are at least a few surprises to keep an eye on. It looks as though Ka’Deem Carey has the potential to be an impact player in one day fantasy leagues this upcoming season. At 5’9” and 207 pounds, Carey is never going to be a guy who provides a lot of long runs for big yards. However, he can do a little bit of everything and he has a knack for finding the end zone. It would not be a surprise at all to see him get a lot of touches in the red zone for whichever team drafts him.

Wide Receiver – Sammy Watkins

This one seems pretty obvious, but there are some other wide receivers who could make an impact as well. Sammy Watkins was absolutely sensational for Clemson in college, and he has the size and speed to be a number 1 wideout in the future. Even if he is selected by a team that has some talent at receiver already, he should be able to get more than enough touches from the very beginning. A guy like Mike Evans might have more red zone potential, but Watkins is the total package who should be an impact player in fantasy football for years to come.

Shannon Smith – special contributor to DraftAce

Logan Ryan scouting report

Scouting Reports - 2013, Uncategorized
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Logan Ryan CB Rutgers #11
Ht: 5’11”
Wt: 191

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[draftace membership]

Size/Athleticism: Adequate height and size. He’s well-rounded athlete who played quarterback in high school.

Coverage: Likes to step up in press coverage, but he isn’t exceptionally strong or fast. He struggles to consistently knock guys off their routes and when he doesn’t, receivers can easily gain a step on him once they’re around him. Did a nice job covering receivers in the slot. He’s quick with his footwork and is able to stick with them on the quick slants. He may be an ideal nickel corner at the next level.

Ball skills: Consistently gets his hand on the ball when he’s in position, but he’ll drop some interceptions.

Run support: Plays like he’s afraid of contact at times. He’ll hang out near the ball carrier and jump in only when he sees an opportunity to try to strip the ball. Not a wrap-up tackler. He swipes at the feet, which causes him to miss a lot of tackle tackle opportunities. His tackle stats aren’t bad, but it’s misleading. He make them when the right opportunity presents itself, but he doesn’t make a ton of impact tackles.

Intangibles: Two-year starter. Hasn’t been matched up with many elite receivers – Big East lacks much offensive NFL talent and he wasn’t challenged in many non-conference games either.

Durability: No known issues.

Comments: Ryan is somewhat limited by his physical tools, but may be an ideal nickel corner in the NFL. His straight-line speed is only average and his size is lacking, which limits his potential on the outside. But he’s very quick and demonstrates consistent footwork when matched up with receivers in the slot. His ability lock down a slot receiver and take away the quick slants and curls could make him a valuable asset in the NFL.

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