The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a confusing 7-9 season after consecutive playoff appearances. There weren’t any glaring holes on the roster, so it’s difficult to explain what happened.
Matt Ryan is getting older, but is still playing at a high level and led an offense which finished sixth in total yards. The defense took a step back, however, finishing 25th in points allowed.
Based on those numbers, you might assume Atlanta needs an overhaul on the defensive side of the ball, but there’s still plenty of young talent there. The previous season, the Falcons defense ranked eighth in points allowed, and there were few meaningful changes in personnel.
It’s possible the Falcons simply suffered a bit of bad luck last season, and a bounce back will happen naturally in 2019. But there are still some holes that need to be addressnzed on both sides of the ball.
Offensive Line
As Matt Ryan enters the back end of his career (he turns 34 in May), the Falcons need to put a greater emphasis on protecting him. He’s never been mobile, but he’ll become even more of a statue in the coming years.
Ryan was pressured on 27.4 percent of his dropbacks in 2018, which ranked in the middle of the pack (16th highest rate out of 36 qualified quarterbacks), according to Sports Info Solutions. But some of that has to be attributed to Ryan’s ability to get the ball out quickly.
According to Sports Info Solutions’ adjusted blown block rate, which accounts for quality of opponent, right tackle Ryan Schraeder ranked 57th out of 71 offensive tackles.
Schraeder is under contract through 2021, but the Falcons only owe him $4M over the next three years combined if they cut him this offseason. And by cutting him with a June 1 designation, the team would save $6.5M on the salary cap, according to Spotrac.
Given Schraeder’s poor performance, cutting him loose seems like a no-brainer.
Spotrac projected the Falcons to have just $23M in salary cap room as of now, giving them limited spending money this offseason. Freeing some up by parting with Schraeder is probably a necessary move.
Ideally, the Falcons would use some of that money to bring in a veteran who can start immediately, although addressnzing that position with the 14th pick is also an option.
Offensive guard should also be mentioned as a potential need if Brandon Fusco is cut. However, Wes Schweitzer showed promise last season, so if Fusco returns, this probably isn’t an immediate area of concern.
Defensive Tackle
Re-signing Grady Jarrett would solve this problem, but until a new contract is signed it needs to be mentioned as one of the Falcons biggest needs. Losing Jarrett would dramatically hurt the Falcons ability to generate a pass-rush from the interior defensive line.
2018 third-round pick Deadrin Senat and Terrell McClain (who is a free agent) were the primary nose tackles lining up next to Jarrett. And while they each contributed in other ways—especially Senat, who will likely take over that starting role in 2019—they were non-factors as pass-rushers.
Here’s a breakdown of the Falcons primary defensive tackles production in pass-rush situations:
Senat is a stout nose tackle, who excels at handling double teams; so his presence helps whoever is lined up next to him. But since they aren’t getting pass-rush productivity out of him, the Falcons will need to bring back Jarrett or find someone capable of equal production from that role.
It’s also worth mentioning Jack Crawford, who moved into the starting lineup at defensive tackle in Week 10. From that point forward, he generated a pressure rate of 6.9 percent, nearly the same rate as Jarrett. It’s possible the Falcons will rely on him moving forward, but he’s a 30-year-old career backup with limited experience at tackle.
Tight End
Austin Hooper is fine, but an offense with elite potential like the Falcons should strive for something better.
The Falcons have used Hooper as strictly a possession receiver on short routes. In 2018, 80.7 percent of his targets came on passes shorter than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the fourth highest rate among tight ends according to Sports Info Solutions.
In that role, Hooper is easily replaceable. And as he enters the final year of his contract, it probably won’t make sense to re-sign him when another cheaper option would be capable of producing the same results in such a limited role.
This a deep draft class of athletic tight ends, making this offseason the perfect opportunity for Atlanta to add a more dynamic weapon to the offense.
Cornerback
Robert Alford, who was absolutely brutal in 2018, has already been cut. When targeting Alford in man coverage, opposing quarterbacks were 31-41 (75.6%) for 504 yards, 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Alford’s departure opens the door for 2018 second-round pick Isaiah Oliver to take on a starting role. Desmond Trufant will continue to start opposite Oliver, with Brian Poole returning to play the slot.
So the starters are set at cornerback, but those three are the only cornerbacks under contract who set foot on the field last year.
The Falcons don’t need to invest heavily in the position, but multiple players do need to be brought in for depth.
The Atlanta Falcons had very little to work with as a result of their trade for Julio Jones in last year’s draft. As a result, I’ll evaluate this class based solely on the picks with which they had to work. That said, the Falcons did absolutely nothing to help them in 2012 and added very little by the way of developmental prospects.
Peter Konz