Category: Bills

Buffalo Bills 2019 Team Needs

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The Bills swung for the fences in the 2018 NFL draft, selecting quarterback Josh Allen at No. 7 overall.

Allen was a deeply flawed prospect and it showed in his rookie year performance. Excluding throws shorter than five yards downfield, Allen finished with the worst on-target pass rate in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 such attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions.

That said, Allen’s mobility and rocket-launcher arm also provided plenty of high points in his rookie year. The trick now will be finding ways to build around his strengths while also masking his flaws. And that should be the entire focus of the Bills offseason.

 

Offensive Line

Evaluating the Bills offensive line is difficult due to Allen’s tendency to hang on to the ball and scramble around—sometimes resulting in a spectacular play, sometimes ending in disaster.

According to Next Gen Stats, Allen took an average of 3.22 seconds to throw, the highest rate in the league. For a pure pocket passer, that stat can be used to evaluate the offensive line. For a scrambler like Allen, it says more about his indecisiveness with the football.

While Allen had issues protecting himself, that doesn’t excuse the poor performance of his linemen.

Dion Dawkins ranked 26th out of 33 left lefts in adjusted blown block rate in pass protection, according to Sports Info Solutions. On the right side, Jordan Mills, who is a free agent, wasn’t much better, ranking 20th out of 30 right tackles (min. 200 snaps in pass protection).

The Bills already made an early move, picking up Spencer Long to replace Russell Bodine at center. Long had been cut after just one disappointing year with the Jets. Long’s adjusted blown block rate in pass protection ranked 20th out of 30 centers, and as a run blocker he ranked 26th. So whether or not he’s actually an upgrade over Bodine remains to be seen.

Mills and right guard John Miller are both free agents. Given their performance in 2018, a return is unlikely.

Realistically, all five positions could be upgraded. However, Dawkins, who is just two years into his career, and rookie left guard Wyatt Teller, are likely to be given more time to develop and should return to a starting role somewhere along the line.

 

Weapons for Allen

Allen isn’t going to magically develop into the quarterback Bills fans hope he can become if the team doesn’t first surround him with the weapons he needs to succeed. And so far this offseason, they’re moving in the wrong direction, having released tight end Charles Clay which saves them just over $4 million.

As long as Allen is their quarterback, the Bills are going to be a team that attacks downfield. According to Sports Info Solutions, Allen attempted 18.4 percent of his passes at 20 or more yards downfield last season, by far the highest rate in the league. No one else was above 14.7 percent (Mitch Trubisky).

In 2018, Zay Jones and Robert Foster were used interchangeably as deep threats with Jones leading the way with 21 deep targets to Foster’s 20.

Neither receiver stood out, but Jones appears to be the one worth keeping around. Jones caught seven of his 10 catchable targets (70 percent), while Foster caught just seven of 13 (53.8 percent). Among players regularly used as a deep threat, the average catch rate on catchable targets was 72.3 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Since Jones will be back in his role (and possibly Foster too), what the Bills need to add to the arsenal is a bigger target for Allen, especially for use in the red zone.

Jones led the team with 18 red zone targets (no one else had more than six), but he caught just eight of those passes (44.4 percent), the worst catch rate on the team.

In a deep class of pass-catching tight ends, it would make sense for the Bills to target one early to give Allen a more well-rounded receiving corps with which to work.

 

Running Back

There’s nothing wrong with LeSean McCoy, but he’s 30 years old and has just one year remaining on his contract. It’s time for the Bills to start planning for life without him.

It would probably make sense for the Bills to addressnz the position in the middle rounds of the draft in order to bring someone in to lighten McCoy’s load in 2019 and potentially take over in 2020.

Chris Ivory is still under contract as McCoy’s backup, but he’s a plodding downhill runner who isn’t an ideal fit anywhere in today’s NFL. On rushing attempts to the outside, only LeGarrette Blount averaged fewer yards per attempt than Ivory’s 2.84, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Bills weak offensive line is definitely partially to blame for that number, but a more elusive running back would add another dimension to the offense.

A prospect such as Florida Atlantic’s Devin Singletary or Oklahoma State’s Justice Hill could potentially fill that void.

 

Offseason Needs: Buffalo Bills

Bills, Team Needs
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1. Quarterback
The Buffalo Bills  have to end the carousel at quarterback. But is this the year? Geno Smith will likely be off the board before the Bills are on the clock, which would force them to reach to fill the need. Perhaps the right move will be to wait until the second or third round and bring in a low-risk prospect to compete with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

2. Inside Linebacker
The Bills need a new leader in the middle of the defense after a disappointing year by Kelvin Sheppard. This could be a position they try to fill with a veteran free agent. If they addressnz it early in the draft, Alec Ogletree could fill the need in the first round. Arthur Brown could be a second-round target.

3. Right tackle
The Bills offensive line was much improved in 2012, especially on the left side with Cordy Glenn showing promise as their new franchise left tackle. But the ride side of the line still needs some work, and veteran Erik Pears may have to battle a rookie for the starting job. Dallas Thomas and Justin Pugh could be second or third-round options.

Cordy Glenn to start at LT for Bills

Bills, Rookie Notes
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The Buffalo Bills have named 2nd-round pick Cordy Glenn their starting left tackle, beating out Chris Hairston, a move which comes as a mild surprise.

This will be Glenn’s second year at the position after he transitioned from guard to tackle as a senior at Georgia. While he held his own at Georgia, many scouts believed his feet were too slow to handle left tackle in the pros.

Head coach Chan Gailey had this to say about Glenn’s performance: “Ability’s not the issue. It’s just playing time. He needs as much playing time as he can get. I think if he gets playing time he’s got a chance to be a really good football player.”

Cordy Glenn to play left tackle for Bills

Bills, Uncategorized
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The Buffalo Bills are planning to let 2nd-round pick Cordy Glenn compete for the starting job at left tackle, and began using him there this weekend at rookie camp. It’s an odd decision considering Glenn’s size (6’6″, 343 lbs) and his lack of athleticism. Most draft analysts, myself included, assumed Glenn would be shifted inside to guard or to right tackle.

Bills new left tackle?

This move raises more questions about the Bills strategy when it comes to the offensive line. Despite having significant holes on the line, especially at tackle, the Bills have ignored the position in recent drafts. Then just when Demetress Bell stepped with a reasonably solid performance in 2011 at left tackle, the Bills let him walk as a free agent.

For whatever reason, the Bills don’t value the offensive line position. It’s a unique strategy, but their their patchwork offensive line strategy has worked reasonably well so far. However, with a relatively immobile quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, having a slow-footed rookie at left tackle could lead to disastrous results.

Draft Grades: Buffalo Bills

Bills, Draft Grades - 2012
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The Buffalo Bills were already having a strong offseason, highlighted by the addition of Mario Williams. And their 2012 draft class completes the process, and potentially makes them darkhorse contenders in the AFC.

The Bills reached for Stephon Gilmore. There’s no denying his potential, but he’s will need time to develop – more time than you’d typically expect from a top-10 pick. That said, I believe cornerback was one of their most glaring needs, and there was a fairly significant dropoff in talent at the position. If they felt this was an area they needed to addressnz in order to compete in 2012, the reach was justified.

Cordy Glenn could be a steal in the 2nd round, but it depends where the Bills use him. He played left tackle this past season at Georgia, but is best suited to play right tackle or guard in the pros. If the Bills use him at left tackle, they’ll be missing an opportunity to maximize his skills.

T.J. Graham was a reach in the 3rd round. He’s more of a track star than a football player. He can stretch the field and potentially contribute as a return specialist, but his upside is limited.

Nigel Bradham is a developmental prospect but I like how he fits in Buffalo. He won’t be forced to play a significant role right away and can be brought along slowly.

I love the selection of Ron Brooks. He was stuck behind Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu this past year, but had the skills to start for nearly any other program in the country. His lack of experience makes him a bit of an unknown, but he played well in a nickel corner role at LSU and, at worst, should be able to fill that role in Buffalo.

Zebrie Sanders could be the Bills long-term answer at left tackle, but he isn’t ready for that role just yet. Ideally, they’ll keep him on the sidelines for a year, developing his strength and technique. But they’re desperate for help on the offensive line, which may force him into action.

Tank Carder lacks the measurables, but was extremely productive at TCU. He may never start, but should have a long career as a backup and special teams contributor.

Mark Asper may add some depth to the offensive line, but he’ll have to fight to make the final roster cuts. The Bills have no shortage of mediocre interior linemen.

The selection of John Potter doesn’t make much sense. Rian Lindell seems to be entrenched as the starting kicker and Potter is no better than any number of kickers who could have been picked up after the draft.

Overall, the Bills did a nice job of addressnzing needs without making many significant reaches. They also landed a few solid developmental prospects who could pay off a few years down the line. This may be Buddy Nix’s best draft class since coming to Buffalo.