The 2019 offseason has already been a year of rebirth for the Cincinnati Bengals. After 16 years on the job, Marvin Lewis is no longer their head coach, and 35-year-old Zac Taylor is stepping in.
The question now is: how many more changes are to come? Does Andy Dalton have a future with the team? Vontaze Burfict? Could this be A.J. Green’s final year?
These are big questions looming over the franchise, and while some of them may not be answered immediately, the team needs to start thinking about all of them.
With Taylor taking over for Lewis, the first step towards a rebuilding process has begun, but the team now needs to decide how far they’re willing to go to facilitate that process. Will they cling to the past, delaying the team’s growth? Or will they be willing to make some difficult, and possibly unpopular, decisions to speed things up?
We can’t answer all of those questions, but here’s a look at a few areas the team should be focusing on this offseason.
Quarterback
The Bengals are either in a perfect situation or a terrible one in regards to their quarterback depth chart, depending on your point of view. On one hand, having a competent quarterback like Andy Dalton means they don’t have to feel pressure to reach for whoever might be on the board in this year’s draft. Using Dalton for another year or two wouldn’t be the end of the world.
On the other hand, as long as Dalton is around, the Bengals probably won’t fall far enough to be in position to draft an elite quarterback. So maybe they should feel a bit of pressure to take a quarterback if one happens to falls to them.
There probably isn’t a right answer to that dilemma, but they should definitely approach the draft process looking for a quarterback and should be prepared to take one if the right scenario develops.
The main reason the Bengals need to upgrade from Dalton is because he can’t throw downfield—and that’s has become a fatal flaw in today’s NFL.
Based on data from Sports Info Solutions, over the past three seasons Dalton has never ranked higher than the 46th percentile in on-target rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield. And at the intermediate level (throws between 10-19 yards downfield), Dalton hasn’t ranked higher than the 26th percentile in that span.
Finding a quarterback who can make those throws needs to be priority No. 1 for Cincinnati.
Linebacker
Vontaze Burfict has been a headache throughout his Bengals career, but he played at a high enough level through most of it that they were able to justify keeping him around. Unfortunately, the tide has shifted and the benefits he brings to the field may not outweigh the negatives any longer.
Among linebackers with at least 30 tackle attempts in 2018, no one missed a higher percentage than Burfict (17.5 percent), according to Sports Info Solutions:
To further complicate matters for the Bengals, Hardy Nickerson, who helped fill in for Burfict at times last season, also ranked among the league’s worst at 13.3 percent.
The Bengals can save $5.6M by cutting Burfict before June 1 or $6.5M by cutting him after June 1, according to Spotrac.
Based on those numbers, it’s possible the Bengals will wait until after the June 1 deadline to make an official decision on Burfict. But due to his poor performance and the potential savings by cutting him loose, they should definitely enter free agency and the draft in search of his replacement (and some added depth to replace Nickerson too).
Right Tackle
The majority of the Bengals’ offensive line is likely to return with the exception of right tackle Bobby Hart, who is an unrestricted free agent.
Among offensive tackles with at least 200 snaps in pass protection, Hart ranked 46th out of 63 in Sports Info Solution’s adjusted blown block rate metric.
After failing to develop Jake Fisher and Cedric Ogbuehi, both of whom hit free agency this offseason, it’s time for the Bengals to take another stab at drafting an offensive tackle early on draft day. This is especially true if Cincinnati is able to land a quarterback in the draft.
At this stage of his career, Dalton is what he is. Playing behind a shaky offensive line isn’t going to change the course of his career. But a young quarterback’s development can be damaged by poor pass protection.
Tight End
The Bengals have plenty of weapons between A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, but with all three tight ends (Tyler Eifert, Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah) hitting free agency, it’s still an area that needs to be addressnzed this offseason.
The ideal plan would probably be to re-sign Eifert, but also bring in a young tight end who is ready to take his job when he can’t go.
Eifert has played in just 14 games over the last three seasons due to injuries, but has always been productive when he’s on the field.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Eifert averaged 11.3 yards per catchable target over the last three seasons, which ranked 10th out of 61 tight ends with at least 50 such targets in that span. Uzomah ranked 40th at 8.5, while Kroft ranked 55th at 7.9 yards per catchablge target.
So while Uzomah and Kroft were adequate backups, there was clearly a steep dropoff in production every time Eifert was off the field. It’s probably time for the Bengals to look for an upgrade at the position, but keeping Eifert around just in case he can stay healthy should be part of that plan.
1. Weak-side linebacker