Category: 2019 NFL Draft

2019 Tight End Rankings

2019 NFL Draft
Comments

The 2019 NFL draft class features one of the most talented groups of tight ends we’ve seen in awhile. Not since 2006 have more than seven tight ends come off the board within the top 100 picks, but we could eclipse that number this year.

While going through my top 10 tight end prospects in this draft class, I’m going to focus on each player’s positive traits. Bill Belichick is known for telling his scouts to highlight what a player can do, rather than what he can’t. And I’ll take a similar approach with my list.

Obviously each of these prospects has flaws, and I’ll briefly touch on some of them when necessary, but every prospect on this list has a role in which he can be successful at the next level.

Now on to the rankings…

 

T.J. Hockenson, Iowa

What he can do: possession receiver, blocking

Hockenson is a traditional in-line tight end, who was often used as the blocking tight end at Iowa. However, he’s also a reliable route-runner with the hands necessary to be used as a possession receiver in the passing game. He also excels at using his body to shield defenders.

Hockenson is the most well-balanced tight end in this class and compares favorably to a smaller version of Rob Gronkowski. Like Gronk, Hockenson excels as a weapon in the middle of the field, where he averaged 12.2 yards per target in 2018, according to Sports Info Solutions.

 

Noah Fant, Iowa

What he can do: stretch the field, red zone weapon

Fant is close to the prototype for tight ends in today’s NFL, due to his combination of size and speed. He’s not a blocking tight end and has minimal experience in that area, but he’s a dangerous weapon from the slot.

Due to his athleticism and size, he should have an immediate role as a weapon in the red zone, where he caught eight of nine catchable targets (including six touchdowns) for Iowa in 2018, according to Sports Info Solutions.

 

Irv Smith Jr., Alabama

What he can do: short/intermediate route possession receiver

The son of former Saints first-round pick Irv Smith, is a well balanced tight end who will excel as a possession receiver on short and intermediate routes.

He lacks the ideal skill set for today’s game due to below average acceleration and a lack of overall size, but he’s a polished route runner who can become a safety net for his quarterback in the middle of the field. He won’t transform an offense, but Smith’s balanced skill set should make him a reliable starter.

 

Josh Oliver, San Jose State

What he can do: stretch the field

Oliver is a high ceiling/low floor prospect who still has a lot of development needed in his game. His combination of speed and height will allow him to be a weapon in the slot, stretching the field from the seam—an area where he can impact the game immediately. His skill set also gives him elite potential in the red zone.

To reach his full potential, Oliver will need to become more comfortable adjusting to the ball and putting himself in the best position to make the catch. According to Sports Info Solutions, he caught just 76.4 percent of his catchable targets in 2018, the second worst rate among tight ends in this draft class. Learning how to better use his body to shield defenders and developing more consistent timing when leaping for the ball will improve that rate.

 

Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M

What he can do: possession receiver on short/intermediate routes

According to Sports Info Solutions, Sternberger caught 94.1 percent of on-target passes, the second highest rate among tight ends in this draft class. That skill set is due to his reliable hands, but also a knack for adjusting his body to the poorly placed ball—something with which he has plenty of practice due to Kellen Mond’s erratic passing.

Sternberger lacks the acceleration and long speed to be a consistent deep threat, so he’ll mostly impact the game on short and intermediate routes. Although, his routes are polished, so he’ll be able to set up an occasional unsuspecting linebacker and break free down the seam.

 

Caleb Wilson, UCLA

What he can do: oversized slot receiver, stretch the field, yards after catch

Wilson is still developing a large portion of his game, but he has the size and athleticism to play valuable role in the slot. At this stage of his career, he should be viewed more as a receiver than a tight end, because he won’t contribute as a blocker early in his career.

Wilson was extremely dangerous working the seam in 2017 with Josh Rosen at quarterback, before a broken foot shortened his season. A similar role likely awaits him in the NFL. According to Sports Info Solutions, he averaged 10.1 yards per target on throws to the middle of the field from Rosen.

 

Kaden Smith, Stanford

What he can do: possession receiver with jump ball skills

Smith fit perfectly at Stanford, as their offense loves to feed jump balls to their tight ends and oversized receivers. This skill set showed up in his stats, as Smith was one of just three tight ends in this draft class to see an average target depth of more than 10 yards (10.3 yards), but finished with the second lowest yards after catch per reception (3.5 yards), according to Sports Info Solutions.

He probably lacks the dynamic athleticism to expand his role, but as a possession receiver he’ll provide some value on short and intermediate routes, especially in the red zone.

 

Dawson Knox, Ole Miss

What he can do: quick slot receiver with good hands

Knox is a former walk-on quarterback who switched to tight end at Ole Miss. Understandably, he’s still learning the position. Tight end is a position that often has a steep learning curve for young players in the NFL, and it will be even more steep for Knox.

Early in his career, Knox will likely be used almost exclusively as a receiver, probably often lining up in the slot. While he’s still developing the route technique to beat man coverage, he is adept at finding space versus zone. According to Sports Info Solutions, Knox averaged 18.1 yards per target versus zone coverage, compared to 5.6 versus man.

 

Dax Raymond, Utah State

What he can do: in-line run blocker, possession receiver on short/intermediate routes

Every team needs a quality No. 2 tight end who has the ability to contribute as a blocker and also pose a threat as an occasional weapon in the passing game—and Raymond is tailor made for that role. Although he lacks experience in pass protection, Raymond excels as a run blocker and has physical tools necessary to expand on that role. He also has decent speed, massive hands and large catch radius which allows him to contribute as a receiver.

Raymond did the majority of his damage in the middle of field at Utah State, where he averaged 8.4 yards per target. That’s where he’ll likely contribute as a possession receiver at the next level.

 

Isaac Nauta, Georgia

What he can do: dominant blocker, possession receiver on short routes

Nauta offers minimal upside and probably will never be the featured tight end in an offense. However, as the game shifts towards using more tight ends strictly as receivers, it’s important to have blockers like Nauta on the roster.

He’s arguably the best blocking tight end in this class, but has added value due to his skill set as a receiver. You won’t see Nauta stretch the field, but he knows how to get open in the short passing game and catches everything thrown at him. According to Sports Info Solutions, Nauta caught 96.8 percent of his catchable targets in 2018, the highest rate among tight ends in this draft class.

D.K. Metcalf Scouting Report

2019 NFL Draft
Comments
Embed from Getty Images

One of the most fascinating prospects in the 2019 NFL draft class is Ole Miss wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. Blessed with a tantalizing blend of size and speed, it’s hard not to let your imagination run wild with ideas of what he could do for an NFL offense. 

Reality, however, is a little more sobering, as Metcalf’s underdeveloped skill set and marginal lateral agility pose some obstacles between where he stands today and that Calvin Johnson-like ceiling. 

To get a better feel for what he is now and what he can become down the road, let’s take a closer look at a few important areas of Metcalf’s game.

 

Route Running

D.K. Metcalf was not asked to run a full route tree at Ole Miss, or really anything close to it. Whenever this is the case, I like to point out that not doing something in college doesn’t mean a player can’t do it in the NFL. However, it does mean his learning curve will be more steep than some of his peers, and NFL coaching staffs aren’t exactly known for their patience.

Here’s a breakdown of his most targeted routes in 2018:

The curl/go combo is a pretty simplistic one, and it accounted for nearly 50 percent of his routes at Ole Miss. This technique simply required Metcalf to explode off the line of scrimmage, and either keep on chugging downfield or put on the breaks and curl back to his quarterback. It also requires no lateral agility, something which Metcalf obviously struggled with at the NFL combine.

As a bigger receiver at 6’3″ and 228 pounds, Metcalf will be expected to run a much higher percentage of post, corner, fade routes. These are the routes teams frequently use to put bigger receivers in favorable position to battle for contested catches, since they’re unlikely to create significant separation with pure athleticism. That combination of routes (post/corner/fade) only accounted for 9.8 percent of Metcalf’s targets in 2018. This is far below the rate of other big receivers in this class such as J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (35.0 percent), Miles Boykin (33.3 percent) and Hakeem Butler (27.5 percent).

On a positive note, Metcalf does have nice footwork off the line of scrimmage, giving him the ability to beat press coverage. That’s a significant piece of the puzzle for him, as he is the type of receiver likely to attract a decent amount of press versus teams who play a high percentage of man coverage. Metcalf’s touchdown versus Alabama cornerback Saivion Smith is perhaps the best example of his footwork off the snap:

 

Hands

Metcalf finished his career with a 9.5 percent drop rate (drops / rec + drops) according to Sports Info Solutions. That falls roughly in the middle of the pack—not high enough to cause concern, but not low enough to call it a strength. As a big receiver it would be nice to see Metcalf demonstrate more consistency in this area. Many of his drops are easily catchable balls on which he just loses focus, such as the example below:

Since Metcalf likely won’t generate a ton of separation on short and intermediate routes, he needs to develop the hands to quickly snatch the ball from the air and tuck it away. If he doesn’t improve upon this, it will hold him back from reaching his ceiling.  

 

Contested Catches

This is the area where a receiver with Metcalf’s size and strength should dominate. And while it probably falls into the “strengths” category for him, he doesn’t win at a rate consistent with expectations based on his physical build. Metcalf has the height and leaping ability to win a fair amount of contested catches based on those traits alone. But he’s still developing an ability to position is body to box out defensive backs and time his jump to snag the ball at his highest point. Even on open receptions, his timing is frequently off—his most common mistake is jumping a split second too early. 

Pointing out this deficiency is nitpicking a little, but it’s a detail that could be the difference between Metcalf reaching an All-Pro level ceiling, and just being a solid No. 2 weapon.  

 

Final Thoughts

Metcalf’s combination of size and speed gives him a high floor and virtually guarantees him a valuable role in an NFL offense. From the beginning of his rookie year, he’ll be able to stretch the field and his future team should expect him to produce a few big plays in 2019.

Whether or not he reaches another level beyond being a complementary deep threat will depend on his ability to develop skills throughout the route tree. Despite having impressive speed, he is not an exceptional natural athlete and isn’t going to lose NFL cornerbacks with his explosiveness out of cuts. To make up for that, he will need to perfect his routes and develop subtle fakes to set up defensive backs for false steps.

As previously mentioned, his footwork off the line of scrimmage is an indicator that Metcalf will be capable of developing those skills. But it will take work on his part and patience from his coaching staff. As a result, landing in the right situation could be critical to his success. He may not succeed if he doesn’t have the right support around him during the developmental process.

On the high end of his projection, Metcalf could become a Calvin Johnson type receiver, who impacts the game as a dangerous deep threat, but is also a red zone weapon, a threat after the catch and can work all levels of the field throughout the route tree. On the low end, Metcalf will be a Martavis Bryant, a big receiver who can stretch the field but does little else.

Parris Campbell Scouting Report

2019 NFL Draft
Comments

Embed from Getty Images

After dominating the NFL combine with a 4.31 40-yard dash and a 40-inch vertical leap, Ohio State’s Parris Campbell has found himself rising up draft boards and appearing in some first-round mock drafts.

It’s not crazy to think Campbell could land among the top 32 picks. After all, the NFL loves speed. But it is amusing to see him listed as a “riser” after simply demonstrating to the scouts in Indy what Big Ten defenses have known about him for years. His combine performance did not come as a surprise to anyone who followed his career in Columbus.

Campbell’s strength is his speed—which, of course, isn’t usually a negative on the scouting report. It did, however, lead the Ohio State coaching staff to create an extremely specific and limited role for Campbell in the Buckeyes’ offense.

His simplistic role in the Ohio State passing game does not mean Campbell can’t take on more responsibilities in an NFL offense, however, it does limit what we know about him at this stage of his career. His scouting report requires a little more guess work than some of his more well-rounded peers.

 

Route Running

This is the area of Parris Campbell’s game that we just don’t know much about due this his role at Ohio State. Campbell did not run a full route tree, or really anything close to it.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Campbell was targeted just 12 times (with six receptions) on various versions of post, corner or go routes. That amounted to just 10.8 percent of his total targets in 2018.

Meanwhile, 50 of Campbell’s targets (45 receptions) came on the jet sweep pass, drag routes or screens. Those accounted for 45.0 percent of his total targets and 49.5 percent of his receptions.

Ohio State used Campbell on those shorter routes due to his speed, which makes him a dangerous weapon after the catch. And obviously his future NFL employer will use him in that role as well. However, no NFL offense features those shorter routes at nearly the rate Urban Meyer did at the college level. Campbell will have to develop his route tree, especially those routes which will allow him to break free downfield.

Campbell’s inexperience on intermediate and deep routes particularly shows up in a few specific situations. He shows inconsistent awareness versus zone coverage and he struggles to work back to the quarterback on broken plays. There’s no reason to think these should continue to be weaknesses in his game, but he’ll simply need more experience before he’s comfortable.

In terms of projecting his development in this area, there’s no reason Campbell can’t learn quickly. He’s a smooth athlete who should be capable refining his routes with more experience. And due to his speed, even without perfect technique defenders should bite on his fakes with some regularity due to their fear of his after-the-catch skills.

Take this route versus Michigan as an example. Campbell somewhat halfheartedly sells a slant, but the Michigan defensive back bites immediately on the inside route, opening up Campbell for the easy touchdown in the corner.

With more experience, Campbell should be able to add some double moves to his repertoire, making him a more dangerous deep threat.

 

Hands

This is another area where it’s difficult to fully evaluate Campbell, but signs point to it being a strength of his game.

Campbell consistently catches the ball away from the body with his hands, and is adept and quickly securing the ball so as to not lose momentum in his pursuit of yards after the catch.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Campbell had just five drops with 91 receptions in 2018 (5.2 percent drop rate). Receivers with a high percentage of receptions on short routes naturally have lower drop rates, but Campbell consistently displays the technique which makes it reasonable to assume he’ll maintain a strong catch rate even as his role evolves.

 

NFL Comparison: Dede Westbrook

Like Jaguars receiver Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell’s game is all about speed, which works as both a positive and negative.

Both receivers are elite weapons after the catch, but their speed has forced teams to use them in such specific roles that they’ve never fully developed their skills throughout the route tree.

 

Projected NFL Role

Like Westbrook, Campbell will fit best as a No. 2 receiver early in his career, playing alongside a more well-rounded target who can complement him on intermediate routes and in the red zone. But both players have the potential to grow into larger roles if they’re able to refine their game.

Regardless of where he lands, he’ll continue to be used on screens and drag routes at high rate in order to allow him room to run after the catch. If he lands with a rebuilding team, he should also be used as a weapon downfield. This isn’t a strength of his right now, but he has the skill set for the role and will benefit from the experience.

Campbell also has the skill set to contribute as a weapon on special teams. He did not return kicks or punts in 2018, but he did average 30.4 yards per kickoff return during the 2016 and 2017 seasons .

N’Keal Harry Scouting Report

2019 NFL Draft
Comments


Arizona State isn’t exactly known for churning out skill position players. In fact, no Sun Devils receiver has reached the 1,000-yard mark in the NFL since Bruce Hill for the 1988 Buccaneers. N’Keal Harry could put an end to that drought.

Harry has the tools to make an immediate impact in the NFL, and he should be viewed as one of the safer prospects at his position in this draft class.

Here’s a closer look at a few areas in which he excels and how he’ll fit into an offense at the next level.

 

Gets Physical to Create Separation

Since Harry lacks the blazing speed to create separation, he has to resort to other means. One of the ways he does this is by occasionally initiating contact with defensive backs and using his physical strength to separate himself from tight coverage.

Here’s an example (in slow motion so you can see his quick contact) of Harry initiating contact with Michigan State cornerback Justin Layne.

Later in the game Harry again beats Layne by initiating contact, just missing out on a big play due to an overthrow:

It’s worth noting that Layne was a legitimate lock-down corner this year, allowing just 10 receptions on 33 targets in man coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

This skill set particularly benefits Harry on quick routes, often when he’s lined up in the slot. These routes rely heavily on timing, and a receiver who lacks the elite quickness to avoid press coverage, needs to be able to physically fight through when he’s challenged.

 

Winning in Contested Situations

The most important trait for any big receiver who lacks elite speed is to have the strength, body control and hands to win in contested situations. And he needs to demonstrate these skills on a consistent basis so that his quarterback comes to view him as an “always open” target, even when he isn’t.

Harry developed this trust with Manny Wilkins at Arizona State.

Here’s another battle between Harry and Layne of Michigan State. Despite strong coverage, Harry runs his route with perfect timing, turns to locate the ball and, most importantly, is the aggressor in the situation as he goes up to pluck the ball from above Layne.

Layne is a relatively physical 6’2″ cornerback, so it’s no small feat for Harry to win this battle. If he’s able to consistently win these challenges at the next level, he will quickly emerge as a No.1 receiver in an offense.

 

Hands, Body Control and Concentration

These traits are closely tied to the skill set referenced above, but they also help Harry win in all other situations.

Wilkins isn’t the most accurate quarterback, so Harry gained plenty of experience adjusting to poorly placed balls and he regularly came down with them.

Even with defensive backs often impeding his path to the ball, Harry has a knack for adjusting his body to get into position for the play. And once he’s in position, he comes down with everything. According to Sports Info Solutions, Harry had just six drops on 89 catchable targets in 2018 (6.7 percent).

Here’s one of the better catches of his career against UTSA:

 

The Next Michael Thomas?

Harry’s ability to win with size and physical play on the outside could draw comparisons to a range of receivers, but a more unique aspect to his game is his ability to play in the slot.

Historically, we tend think of slot receivers are smaller, quicker types—Wes Welker is a classic example. But the NFL has started to use bigger, more physical receivers in the slot, much like the Saints use Michael Thomas.

Harry excelled in this role at Arizona State, which accounted for just over one-third of his targets, and he actually averaged more yards per target in the slot than on the outside:As a bigger receiver in the slot, you need to run precise routes, have the ability to get physical when necessary and soft hands to wrangle the bullet passes that are often forced your way when the quarterback comes under pressure. Much like Thomas, Harry checks all of these boxes.

 

Bottom Line

Whether or not N’Keal Harry actually reaches Michael Thomas’ level of production is tough to say. That’s a lofty comparison and, of course, it doesn’t hurt that Thomas has a Hall of Famer feeding him the ball. But much like Thomas coming out of Ohio State, Harry should be viewed as a prospect with an extremely high floor. Receivers with strong hands, a willingness to get physical with defensive backs and the body control to win in contested situations tend to reach a high level of success in the NFL.

Harry’s versatile skill set and experience lining up out wide and in the slot should ease his transition into the league and, if he lands with a veteran quarterback, he could make an immediate impact in 2019.

Justin Herbert: Early Scouting Notes

2019 NFL Draft
Comments

It’s still really early in the process, but I’m already getting the sense that Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is close to a first-round lock for the 2019 or 2020 NFL draft.

After watching a few games from his 2017 season, it’s clear that Herbert checks off a lot of the basic boxes in terms of size, mobility and arm strength—the three traits which just landed Josh Allen in the top-10, despite being deficient in every other category.

On top of having the traits you can’t teach, Herbert already has a more developed game than Allen, most notably in his ball placement.

Here’s a throw from Oregon’s game against Arizona State in 2017 where Herbert’s placement really stands out. Despite solid coverage from the Arizona State cornerback, Herbert places this back on the back shoulder of wide receiver Dillon Mitchell where only Mitchell can make a play on the ball.

Here’s another example of a play where Herbert places the ball perfectly for his receiver, and this time does so despite not being able to set his feet to throw. Again, the defender is in position but Herbert knows his 6’5″ tight end Jacob Breeland is the only one who can get this ball if he throws it slightly over his head.

Obviously there’s a long way to go before Justin Herbert is truly able to cement himself as a first-round prospect, but a 6’5″ quarterback who can make these types of throws during his sophomore year is a very good bet to be coveted by the NFL in the near future.