The Beasley-Rose Debate

Like last year, the top 2 in the draft is all but set. Still up in the air is who goes first: Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose?

Given that the lottery is still over a month away, any discussion is purely speculative. We won't know who gets the top spot until May 20. Some teams are in dire need of a point guard (Sonics). For others, getting a low-post threat needs to be the priority (Grizzlies). But for the majority of other lottery-eligible teams - including the Heat - the choice is far less clear.

So that begs the natural question: if you were starting a franchise, which dynamic freshman do you take?

The Michael Beasley File
As recently as February, Beasley seemed like the clear cut top pick in the draft. While he did nothing to change that, Derrick Rose made it a debate.

Last year, Kevin Durant combined scoring and rebounding skills that attacked the record books. Most didn't think we'd see another season that was its statistical equal - at least not this soon. But Beasley came in and approached those totals. That's not to say they are the same player. Beasley will be a legitimate - if maybe a bit undersized - power forward, while spent much of his rookie year out-of-position at shooting guard.

A better comparison for Beasley might be another Big 12 (er, Big 8) stud freshman - only one that played about 25 years ago - Wayman Tisdale. Tisdale was a 6'9" freshman at Oklahoma when he averaged 25 PPG and 10 RPG. Given similar size and scoring ability, it seems like a decent comparison. But anyone picking Beasley first would have to be expecting a far better NBA career than Tisdale's, who averaged just a hair over 15 PPG in his career. Beasley has a better outside game and should play with more fire than Tisdale, who was often accused of being too nice.

There are 3 major question marks about Beasley. The first two he can do something about, while third will be determined for him.

1. Attitude
Beasley's attitude problems led to his dismissal from Oak Hill Academy prior to his senior year. Here is how the Washington Post described the situation, in what is really a must-read for those looking into his character:

"Beasley said nobody gave him an exact reason for his dismissal, but he guesses that Oak Hill grew tired of his pranks. He wore pajamas to the school cafeteria. He threw sticks at teachers' houses. He snuck out of his dorm after curfew and organized games of hide-and-go seek."

He also had a contest with teammate Ty Lawson to see who could sign their autograph in the most places across campus. Even after being told that he needed to fix his behavior in order to be invited back, Beasley found yet another target for his Sharpie: the principal's truck. Needless to say, that was the last straw.

All of these incidents point to the childish acts of a teenager. It's often hard to remember just how young these kids are when they are physically as mature as someone 10 years their senior. But if these are the worst things you can say about Beasley, there are far worse characters populating the NBA ranks. My guess? Put Beasley in the right situation, and he'll be fine.

2. Defense
Obviously, rebounding is not Beasley's problem, given that he led the nation in rebounding. It's the rest of his defensive game that raises red flags. Most cite passiveness and a lack of effort as his primary defensive flaws. That's a whole lot easier to overcome than physical deficiencies. By all accounts, when Beasley wanted to he was capable of being a solid defender. The key will be to find a coach who gets through to him - not one that was brought in to placate him.

3. Size
Ultimately, the moment that decides if Beasley is the top pick in the draft will not involve a basketball. The moment Beasley gets his height measured, we will have a far better sense for his NBA potential.

Listed at 6'9" is his Kansas State bio, Beasley is often referred to as being 6'10". But others doubt either of those are accurate, thinking he might a few inches shorter.

In short, if Beasley is 6'10", he is no longer a tweener and his stock stays steady atop the draft. But if he is more like 6'7" and change, teams would have to decide if they want risk that his ceiling is as the next Larry Johnson.

The Derrick Rose File
Rose didn't jump onto the scene with the same flair that Beasley did. In fact, prior to the 1st of the year, he had nearly as many turnovers as assists. However, Rose finished the year strong - really strong. He had one the greatest NCAA Tournaments for a freshman point guard - or any point guard in recent memory. Rose averaged 20 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists, while holding his turnovers in check until committing 4 in the title game. That performance gave Rose national exposure long after Beasley had gone home.

Turnovers remain a red flag on Rose, but the same could have been said about Chris Paul several years ago. Point guards tend to take a bit longer to develop, and the same should be expected from Rose, who is not as NBA-ready as Beasley. The classic case for this is Chauncey Billups, who bounced around the league before finding a home with the Pistons. Rose is a better point guard than Billups, but does not possess his shooting ability. Regardless, the team that drafts Rose needs to have the patience to let him develop. Rarely has a 19-year-old point guard been asked to contribute right away, but few teams bad enough to select 1st overall will let him develop slowly.

Rose hit only 35 3-pointers in 40 games played his freshman year. So clearly, his outside shooting is suspect. That brings to mind last year's top point guard, Mike Conley, Jr., who hit only 21 as a freshman. Interestingly, Conley's 3-point shooting actually improved in his first year in the NBA despite the longer shot. Rose's game is slashing and passing, not shooting. But the fact remains that an elite point guard needs to be able to stick a three with regularity.

What is Rose's ceiling? Who might be best compare to? These are difficult questions to answer because he is such a unique talent. While doesn't have the outside shooting of Paul or Billups, there are aspects of his game that could make up for that.

Rose is an athletic freak. He is both an explosive dunker and dynamic passer. He has the size to create mismatches against smaller point guards. Jason Kidd is a name some have thrown around - while not a perfect comparison, it goes to show Rose's potential.

The Verdict
When in doubt, conventional wisdom dictates that size matters. The problem is tradition's been wrong a little too often. Chris Paul and Deron Williams being just the latest examples.

On the other hand, take a look at the NBA champions since Michael Jordan retired. They all have one thing in common: elite big men. Point guards on those teams included Avery Johnson, Derek Fisher, Brian Shaw, Jason Williams and Lindsay Hunter. Is this a passing trend? Is Beasley even an elite big man?

Ultimately, Rose has the greater upside and Beasley is probably the safer pick. Can you tell I keep going back and forth? Forced to choose right now, I'll take Beasley - but with every passing day, Rose's stock rises. To be continued...

-Jeremy Lundblad heads up DraftAce's new NBA draft coverage