Should I Stay of Should I Go? - The Sophomore Class

Just imagine if David Stern had his way back in 2005 and the NBA's minimum age became 20 instead of 19. In addition to this year's top freshman, we'd have had the joy of watching Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Brandan Wright, Mike Conley, et al in the NCAA for another year.

Instead, we have what is by and large a weak sophomore class.

Only one member of the sophomore class is a no-brainer. Brook Lopez is a lock for the top ten - if not the top 5. The center from Stanford also had academic issues this season that caused him to miss the early part of the season.

That leaves a group of at least 20 sophomores with reasonable NBA expectations, but a major decision to make. So here is some advice for those on the fence.

Stay
Let's get a few obvious ones out of the way to begin with. Wayne Ellington, Taj Gibson, Paul Harris, and Scottie Reynolds would struggle to find a suitor in the 1st round. All can play their way into the 1st with more experience.

Stephen Curry and Luke Harangody both made names for themselves this season. However, Curry needs to bulk up and the Gody needs to improve his quickness if either hope to have a legitimate career at the next level. The good news is both seem to realize this.

The same can't be said for Ryan Anderson. A fringe first-rounder, Anderson is hopefully only testing the waters with his recent announcement. You can bet that newly-hired Mike Montgomery is already making his case to Anderson.

Three sophomores would benefit greatly from the departure of teammates. Bill Walker tore an ACL in his true freshman year and took a backseat to Michael Beasley as a redshirt freshman. Tyler Smith, though old for a sophomore at 21, could emerge in the high-powered Vols offense that graduates Chris Lofton. That said, he has family concerns that could trump moving up a few spots. Finally, Robin Lopez wouldn't have to defer to his brother in the paint next season, unfortunately he already made his decision.

Two Louisville fowards have already thrown their names in the mix. Derrick Caracter doesn't seem cut out for the college game, given his inability to stay out of trouble. The problem is when Caracter does play, he can't stay out of foul trouble. He should come back, but he won't - and will be a 2nd rounder as a result. Earl Clark's another matter. He's likely a first rounder. But given how much he improved last season, one wonders how high he could go in 2009. Rick Pitino probably said it best: "[Clark] should stay another year and try to become the best player in college basketball rather than sit on an NBA bench."

Clark isn't the only one to raise his game as a sophomore. Hasheem Thabeet showed remarkable improvment, particularly on the offensive end where he was completely lost as a freshman. He remains extremely raw though. But given his enormous upside at 7'3", another year on his current trajectory could land him in the top 5 of the 2009 draft.

Two sophomores found playing time in 2007-08 thanks to former teammates jumping to the NBA. JaVale McGee emerged from Nick Fazekas' shadow to give us a preview of what his 7'0" frame can do. Marreese Speights found playing time with the departure of Florida's core group of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Both players have showed ability, but given their lack of playing time as freshmen, they lack the body of work of others in this class. With so many quality big men available in the 8-25 range, they would need lottery guarentees to come out in my mind.

Did Darrell Arthur improve in his sophomore year? A quick look at the numbers says yes because his points, rebounds and assists all went up. But take a closer look. Arthur averaged 5 1/2 more minutes this season. If you take a look at his 40 minute averages, Arthur's scoring actually went down, his rebounding improved marginally and his blocks went way down. With 3 key seniors and Brandon Rush all likely gone, Arthur can become the man as a junior.

Go
If anyone thought D.J. Augustin was merely a sidekick to Kevin Durant, he proved them wrong with an All-American season. He is arguably the 2nd best true PG in the draft behind Derrick Rose - and given the number of teams in the market for a floor general, there is certainly a market for him in the top 15. At only 5'11", Augustin's draft stock probably won't climb much higher than it already has.

Outside the elite freshmen, Russell Westbrook stands atop the 2nd tier of guards. No backcourt player shot up draft charts more than Westbrook this season. He ultimately projects as a point guard given his size, but Westbrook has the defensive ability to guard either position.

One might think Chase Budinger would find himself in a much better situation offensively with Jerryd Bayless moving on. Not necessarily, given that the Wildcats are bringing in perhaps the top freshman in the nation in Brandon Jennings. Budinger benefits from a draft short on natural scorers with the height to be a legit 2.

On the surface it looks like Ty Lawson didn't improve upon his freshman season, but a closer look reveals a different reality. Prior to getting hurt, Lawson was averaging 14+ points and 6 assists, while shooting almost 54% from the field. Lawson also drastically improved upon the weakest part of his game, free throw shooting.

I'd love to see all freshman return for a second go-round. And while I value education as much as the next guy, I assure you that my reasoning is entirely selfish. Simply put, the college game would be far more exciting with another year of Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, et al.ch 28, 2008

That said, I am not about to suggest that any guarenteed lottery pick should spend another year eating ramen noodles.

The following players are hereby dismissed from class (if they want to be, that is): Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon and Kevin Love. End of discussion. These 6 are probably the only one actually ready to make the jump. Unfortunately, other freshmen will no doubt follow them.

For everyone else, the decision gets a little more difficult. Here's some advice on who should stay, and who should test the waters.

Stay
Two freshmen have already announced they will be returning for their sophomore season. Arizona State's James Harden may be the most underrated freshman in America, but that should change next season as he leads the Sun Devils to the tournament. Also in the Pac-10, Davon Jefferson will return to USC. Some thought he might make an early jump given that he is a 21-year-old freshman. However, Jefferson wisely realized that his value would only increase with O.J. Mayo, and his 16 shots per game, in the NBA.

Patrick Patterson is another NBA talent, but needs more seasoning, especially with the news that he will likely undergo offseason surgery. Gonzaga's Austin Daye is 6'10" and shot over 40% from 3-point range. He also weighs 190 pounds. Kyle Singler started strong for Duke, but clearly hit a freshman slump.

When you are a 7-footer with even marginal skill, there will always be whispers about your intentions. Kosta Koufos and Andrew Ogilvy are no different. Both would likely be snapped up in the first round this year, but another year or two in college could improve their draft positions by 10-15 spots.

The there's J.J. Hickson.... oh no, I'm too late! Hickson's season got off to an unbelievable start with 31 points on 12-for-12 from the field in his first game. But the rest of his season was fairly tumultuous and inconsistent. On talent alone, he can probably sneak into the 1st round, but someone with this much ability should leave nothing to chance. At least he hasn't hired an agent... yet.

Go (but please don't hire an agent!)
And then there were 4. So let's take a look at them individually:

DeAndre Jordan: It's hard to tell a lottery pick to return to school, so I won't. But Jordan simply is not very good right now. One more year in college would allow him to actually develop and gain experience. In the NBA, he'd just be riding the pine. With more experience, he is a top 3 pick (maybe even 1st overall). That said, if he is solidly in the top ten after working out for NBA teams...

Anthony Randolph: How can a guy average 16 and 9 in the SEC and still fly under the radar? Playing for a terrible team will do the trick. At 6'11", Randolph has the size and athleticism to make it in the NBA. But because of his lack of hype, the predraft workouts will mean more to him than any of the other borderline freshmen.

Donte Greene: Unlike Randolph, Greene got plenty of airtime this year. Not only was Syracuse a regular on national TV, but with a roster only about 7 deep, Greene did not see much of the bench. Age is another factor for Greene. He is already 20, making him older than the Lopez twins.

Blake Griffin: This is probably the toughest of the 4 to predict. Griffin is the most NBA ready of this group. That's not to say he doesn't need to improve many aspects of his game (free throws and shot blocking spring to mind). Many thought Griffin would declare once Jeff Capel jumped ship to South Carolina. That's not happening. So now will Blake come back for one more go around with his brother Taylor, who will be a senior? My money's on yes.