Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford
Luck stated before the season that his junior year would likely be his last in Palo Alto, and it’s a wise decision. He has very little to gain by sticking around, especially if his top offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin bolt for the NFL as well. Decision: Go

Barley's stock could soar in 2012

Matt Barkley – QB – USC
This is going to be a tough decision for Barkley. He could be the second quarterback off the board, but he could also experience a draft day fall. Landry Jones, Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill are also 1st-round possibilities who could leap-frog Barkley during the offseason. If he sticks around he could be the No. 1 pick in 2013.
Decision: Stay

Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU
It will be tough for Claiborne’s stock to get any higher. If he sticks around for another year he may not even be the best draft-eligible cornerback on his own team in 2012 (Tyrann Mathieu will be a junior next year). This should be an easy decision for the potential top-five pick. Decision: Go

Alshon Jeffery – WR – South Carolina
It’s been a somewhat disappointing season for Jeffery, which normally means a player should stick around. But with South Carolina’s shaky quarterback play there’s no reason to believe 2012 will be any better. It’s time to move on. Decision: Go

Dwayne Allen – TE – Clemson
This is a weak class for tight ends, and Allen may be tempted to leave as he will be considered the top prospect at the position by many. However, Clemson has taken major strides as a program this year and will enter 2012 as a dark-horse title contender. Allen could further boost his stock with another solid season as one of Tajh Boyd’s go-to weapons. Decision: Stay

The Colts now have a two-game lead in the Suck For Luck race, all but ensuring themselves a shot at drafting Peyton Manning’s eventual replacement. The only thing standing in their way could be Manning’s objection.

Apparently that won’t be an issue.

According to an AP report, Bill Polian stated “Peyton and I have spoken about [drafting his successor], and he’s OK with that.”

This has to come as a relief for Colts fans. They can now look forward to Manning’s return in 2012 (and possibly beyond) before he gives way to Luck. Few, if any, teams have ever had such a smooth transition planned out two to three years in advance. While this has been a rough year in Indy, there’s no reason to think they won’t reload and become contenders again for the next 10+ years with Luck at the helm.

Oregon’s defense shouldn’t pose much of a challenge to Andrew Luck but, given the Stanford Cardinal’s weak schedule, this is the one game of the regular season where all eyes will be on him.

Luck needs a strong performance in the biggest game of his career

Luck’s performance on Saturday night won’t shape the opinions of scouts, but it will impact public perception which can, on occasion, alter a player’s draft stock.

Players at the top of the draft board in November almost always start to fall once the draft process begins as people start looking for any reason to question their ability. Inevitably there will be some who over-think their evaluation of Luck (Phil Simms, I’m looking at you) and Luck can help himself by not giving them any reason to question his ability.

If Luck chokes in the biggest game Stanford has played in years (possibly ever) he will gain a reputation and some will claim that Oregon’s defense poked holes in his game.

This is a tough situation for Luck because he cannot exceed expectations. He either meets them, or he fails – at least in the eyes of the general public.

No matter what happens on Saturday, or over the course of the next five months, Luck will be at the top of my draft board, but a poor performance against the Ducks will certainly raise doubts in the minds of some.

Prior to the start of the season many believed the Cincinnati Bengals were a favorite in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. They’re now 4-2, and would likely lose out on Luck even if they ended the season on a 10-game skid.

But could they still be in market for Luck?

Thanks to the Raiders’ generosity the Bengals now own two 1st-round picks in 2012 and could own two in 2013 if the Raiders make a deep playoff run. That would give them more than enough ammunition to move up to No. 1 if they want to get their hands on Luck.

Andy Dalton looks like a decent quarterback, but he isn’t Luck and he never will be.

Dalton has the potential to be a decent starter in this league, but he isn’t someone you build around. Luck can be the cornerstone of a franchise and if any team with even the slightest concern at quarterback has an opportunity to draft him, he could be worth selecting.

Ultimately Luck-to-Cincinnati is probably a long-shot, but it’s something the Bengals would be wise to consider.

Stop reading now Dolphins fans. You’re not going to like what I have to say.

The Dolphins are my early favorite to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, thus winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Miami finished 7-9, so I realize that I’m going out on a limb. Right now they have far more talent than the Panthers, Bills or Browns – just to name a few. But they’re quickly headed in the wrong direction.

For starters, just look how they ended the 2010 season. They went 1-4 in December and January, including losses to the Browns, Bills and Lions. With Tony Sparano’s job on the line, the team didn’t exactly step up for their coach.

As bad as the Dolphins were down the stretch, however, their owner is the real reason why I think they’re headed towards a miserable 2011 season.

Shortly after the season ended Stephen Ross interviewed Jim Harbaugh. The only problem with that was he already had a head coach. And he never told Tony Sparano or anyone else that his current head coach’s job was in jeopardy.

After butchering the coaching situation, Ross decided to get involved with the playcalling, asking for a hurry-up offense. More specifically, he wants the offense to become more “aggressive” and “creative.”

So what better way for Ross to ensure that his team’s offense becomes “aggressive” and “creative” than by hiring former Browns offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who was nothing short of an epic failure during his two years in Cleveland.

If you thought the ‘Phins offense was abysmal in 2010 – they finished 30th in the league – just wait until Daboll gets his hands on Brandon Marshall and company. Not only does Daboll have a knack for poor clock management and unimaginative playcalling, but he’ll likely be losing his most productive playmakers.

Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are both free agents, and both are still searching for their first career playoff victory. Williams is 33 and Brown is 29 and neither has much left in the tank, as a result I would be surprised to see either back in South Beach.

And I haven’t even mentioned the quarterback situation. Chad Henne, who was benched in favor of Chad Pennington at one point this season, is still under contract but doesn’t exactly have the confidence of the coaching staff. If Ross continues down this path of over-involvement it’s only a matter of time before he pulls an Al Davis and falls in love with Cam Newton or Jake Locker.

And if the dominoes continue to fall in this order, it won’t be long before Brandon Marshall is pouting and demanding a trade.

It’s getting ugly in Miami, and I’m jumping off the bandwagon early. The only good news  for Dolphins fans is that the best quarterback prospect of the past decade may await them in next April’s draft.

I’ll start by saying I fully support Luck’s decision to stay in school. This is a personal decision and probably the biggest one he’s had to make at this point in his life. He has to do whatever makes him feel most comfortable.

Is Luck truly dedicated to football?

That said, when an NFL team does finally decide to pay him millions of dollars, nothing is too personal to be questioned.

To an outsider, Luck’s decision makes little sense. He says that he is committed to earning his degree; that’s fine, but nothing would stop him from returning to Stanford upon the conclusion of his NFL career – or even during offseasons.

By going back to school, he may be costing himself in the ballpark of $40M. A rookie wage scale may not be in place by this April, which means the top pick will get at least $50M. By 2012, a wage scale is almost certain to be in place which will bring to the price tag of the No. 1 pick down well below that figure – probably in the rage of $10-20M guaranteed.

All this adds up to a very confusing decision by Luck. His education vs the NFL was not an either/or choice.

As a result, when he does enter the draft next offseason teams will question him about this decision. They will want to no what led him to stay at Stanford and forgo millions of dollars in guaranteed money – money which he’ll never be able to recoup. They’ll want to know if he is truly dedicate to the game of football, or if his ambitions lie elsewhere.

Maybe these are unfair questions, but they will be asked and he will need to be prepared to further explain his decision.

If Andrew Luck enters the draft as expected, Panthers GM Marty Hurney has an incredible easy job… or so we think.

Obviously no one would fault the Panthers for taking Luck. He is the consensus top available player and arguably the best quarterback prospect to come along since Peyton Manning.

But what if they don’t want Luck?

Passing over Luck isn’t an option – it would be a public relations nightmare which could haunt them for years and ultimately could cost Hurney his job. Trading the pick, however, is a very real possibility.

The Panthers are starving for NFL talent, and aren’t going to get much from this draft. Remember, they inexplicably traded their 2011 2nd-round pick for a 3rd-round pick in last year’s draft which they used on Armanti Edwards. Hurney needs to find a way to add more picks in this year’s draft, and trading the top selection would net him a nice package.

Any trade for Luck would have to look a lot like the Eli Manning trade in 2004. In that deal the Giants gave up their 2004 and 2005 1st round picks (Phillip Rivers and Shawne Merriman) as well as their 2004 3rd-round pick (Nate Kaeding) and 2005 5th-round pick (traded to Tampa Bay).

Considering the fact that the Panthers wouldn’t be getting a franchise quarterback in return such as Rivers, I would expect the price tag for Luck to be even higher. The Bills have the best chance to work out a deal, which I expect would require their 2011 and 2012 1st-round picks, as well as 3rd round pick this year and possibly a 3rd in next year’s draft as well.

Additionally, the Panthers benefit from the fact that multiple teams will be in the bidding to trade up for Luck. The Bills are an obvious option, as well as the Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and Redskins. Anyone outside the top-10 probably doesn’t have the ability to move up, unless they throw in a proven NFL starter as well.

Don’t be fooled by the recent statements that the Panthers intend to draft Luck. All that does is help ensure that Luck enters the draft. In no way does it mean they have actually settled on him. They simply know that they want the option to either take him or trade him – either way, with Luck in the draft the Panthers are big winners.

Thanks to the Bills win over the Bengals on Sunday, the Panthers are now in sole possession of the worst record in the league.

Let’s assume they finish in that position. What direction will the go with the 1st-overall selection?

The answer to that question depends on who is calling the shots in Carolina. Head coach John Fox’s contract expires at the end of the year and it’s unlikely he’ll be invited back, and GM Marty Hurney is on the hot seat as well.

The Jimmy Clausen era may be a short one in Carolina.

So while it’s too early give a definitive answer, it’s not hard to speculate that Clausen’s tenure as the starter could be short lived. Remember, 30 of the 32 NFL teams passed on Clausen – some more than once – in last year’s draft. So whoever the Panthers hire likely had the opportunity to select Clausen, but chose to go in a different direction.

But, regardless of who is in Carolina’s front office, Andrew Luck may actually hold the keys to Clausen’s future.

Given the choice between Clausen and Jake Locker or Cam Newton, it may be safer to stick with Clausen (and his significantly smaller contract) and address another area of need with the 1st pick. But if Luck is on the board, it will be hard to make that choice.

Andrew Luck will be the best quarterback to enter the draft since I started this website in 2004. And those with more experience than me say that he may be the best since Peyton Manning.

So while it’s hard to justify giving up on Clausen after just one season, Luck may simply be too talented to pass over.

• Andrew Luck is the real deal, and I’m going to take every chance I get to mention how much I like him. UCLA did a nice job pressuring him and taking away a lot of options in coverage, but Luck adjusted and took what was given him. He showed off his field awareness and accuracy on his first TD pass of the game to Ryan Whalen. He spun around, regrouped and hit led him perfectly into the corner.
• I really liked what I saw from Cameron Heyward against Miami. A guy his size dropping back into coverage and picking off that pass from Jacory Harris is special. He could be the next Richard Seymour.
• Another guy I like from OSU was Daniel “Boom” Herron. He reminds me of Justin Forsett. He’s only a junior and likely won’t leave early since he’s splitting time with Brandon Saine, but he could end up being the better pro prospect of the two.


Ahmad Black is having a breakout season

• Florida safety Ahmad Black has already done a lot to boost his stock this season. He bailed out the Gators with a key interception against USF on Saturday, and played an all-around great game. He’s looked like a solid 2nd or 3rd round pick.
• I know they’ve only played Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe, but Ryan Mallett has completed 73.1 pct of his passes. That is a huge step in the right direction. He completed just over 55 pct in 2009 and was below 50 pct in 2007 with Michigan. A player with his ability in that offense needs to be around 60 percent to be considered a legitimate 1st-round prospect.
• How bad is the ACC? (I know that’s unrelated to the draft, but had to say something.)