Mock Draft

updated Feb. 7

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford - Scouting Report
Jim Irsay recently stated that the Colts will consider both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but there is no reason to think he won’t settle on Luck in the very near future (if he hasn’t already). Luck has all the tools necessary to ensure a smooth transition out of the Peyton Manning era – something which most franchise struggle with for years after losing a franchise quarterback. Griffin is an elite talent, potentially with even more upside than Luck, but he isn’t even in the same ballpark as Luck in terms of NFL readiness.

2. St. Louis Rams – Matt Kalil – OT – USC - Scouting Report
The  Rams will certainly be tempted to trade this pick, especially if the Browns offer up both of their 1st-round picks. However, if the Rams move down they likely miss out on Kalil. And while they need help at a number of positions, if they’re truly committed to building around Sam Bradford then they must address the offensive line first. Kalil may prove to be the only elite left tackle prospect to come from this draft class.

3. Minnesota Vikings - Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa - Scouting Report
If the Rams take Kalil, the Vikings will likely begin serious trade talks with the Redskins, Browns and possibly the Dolphins, all of whom would like to move up for Robert Griffin. But whether they say put or move down a few slots, Reiff figures to be high on their draft board. He isn’t in Matt Kalil’s class, but he does have the ability to take over for Charlie Johnson at left tackle and anchor their line as a quality starter for the next decade.

4. Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor - Scouting Report
I’m not convinced that Colt McCoy is a bust, but this should still be an easy decision for the Browns. Griffin is an elite playmaker who has the ability to change an offense from day one. With Griffin in the fold, and possibly another offensive playmaker added later in the draft, the Browns offense would be unrecognizable in 2012. If someone else where to leapfrog the Browns and select Griffin, they would become a strong candidate to trade down and target someone such as Michael Floyd or Trent Richardson in the mid-1st-round.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU - Scouting Report
Cornerbacks don’t often come off the board in the top five, but players like Morris Claiborne don’t come around often either. And while anyone should consider Claiborne if he were to fall to this point, the Bucs also have a glaring need at cornerback. Ronde Barber is a free agent, and turns 37 in April. Aqib Talib has shown promise, but he can’t stay out of trouble off the field and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will be willing to put up with his antics.

6. Washington Redskins – Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama - Scouting Report
Mike Shanahan has a reputation as someone who enjoys picking running backs off the scrapheap and turning them into 1,000-yard backs. While there is some truth to this, it’s also true that Shanahan has rarely, if ever, been given the opportunity to fill his need for a franchise back with a prospect like Richardson. Unless the ‘Skins are able to trade up for a Griffin, it will be difficult to justify passing on Richardson here.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma St - Scouting Report
The Blaine Gabbert era didn’t exactly get off to a blazing start, and if the Jaguars are going to avoid him turning into a bust they need to supply with him the weapons he needs to succeed. Mike Thomas has proven to be a reasonably effective deep threat, but he isn’t the type of receiver that can help a young quarterback develop. Justin Blackmon is a true No. 1, and his presence alone should allow Gabbert to improve by leaps and bounds in 2012.

8. Carolina Panthers - - Kendall Wright – WR – Baylor - Scouting Report
The consensus seems to be that the Panthers will address the interior defensive line with this selection if Blackmon and Claiborne are off the board. But I suspect GM Marty Hurney won’t be so quick to give up on his pair of 2011 3rd-round picks Sione Fua and Terrell McClain. They compliment each other well, with Fua at nose tackle and McClain as the penetrating three-technique. Instead of addressing the defensive line, I believe this draft will be all about surrounding Cam Newton with weapons. This may appear too early for Wright, but he is rumored to be the top receiver on some draft boards and would be a great fit in Carolina.

9. Miami Dolphins - Michael Brockers – DE/DT – LSU - Scouting Report
The Dolphins haven’t officially disclosed what base defense they will run under new coordinator Kevin Coyle, but are expected to use some form of a hybrid defense, working mostly out of the 4-3. An effective defense featuring multiple fronts requires some versatile players, which can be difficult to find. Michael Brockers, who primarily lined up a defensive end in LSU’s 4-3 defense, has the size and athleticism to be an effective penetrating three-technique tackle in their 4-3 sets, as well as at end in the 3-4.

10. Buffalo Bills - Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina - Scouting Report
The Bills have officially announced that they will be transitioning to a 4-3 base defense under new coordinator Dave Wannstedt, which means some personnel changes are coming. There are a few options for them to consider here, but it’s clear that Coples is the cream of the crop – at least in terms of raw talent. While Coples has the highest ceiling, he was terribly inconsistent during his time at North Carolina, which could push the Bills to consider Nick Perry or Melvin Ingram instead.

Picks 1-10 ~ Picks 11-20 ~ Picks 21-32 ~ Round 2