2010 NFL Draft

Clausen sweepstakes narrowed to 5 teams

Notre Dame v Stanford

Does anyone want this guy?

This offseason has been filled with nothing but bad news for Jimmy Clausen.

Its tough to say his stock is actually falling, because he hasn’t done anything wrong. But the teams potentially interested in him are falling off fast. First the Seahawks traded for Charlie Whitehurst, then the Browns said they flat-out weren’t interested.

I have yet to hear about a single team who has requested a private workout with Clausen. And to the best of our knowledge, he only met privately with two teams at the combine, the Bills and Redskins.

Its not uncommon for players not to meet with teams prior to their pro day. Teams often want to see a player workout once before using up one of their 30 pre-draft visits. However, quarterbacks are a different beast. The Rams have already met with Bradford and have set up a date for him to visit in April, despite the fact that he won’t workout until March 29. Since Clausen won’t workout until April 9, it seems odd that no one (to our knowledge) has scheduled him for a private workout yet. Presumably there are multiple teams that will have an interest in him in the 1st round, regardless of how he looks on April 9. Or maybe we’re just way off base in our assumption that he’s viewed as a premier prospect. [update: Clausen has visit scheduled with Bills; date is unknown]

Whatever the case may be, there now appears to be only five teams in the Clausen sweepstakes:

4. Redskins
The ‘Skins placed a 1st-round tender on restricted free agent Jason Campbell, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t still interested in Clausen. They spoke to Clausen at the combine, indicating some interest. However, is sounds as though Mike Shanahan in genuine in his plans to bring Campbell back and giving him a legitimate shot to turn things around. If that’s the case it would make more sense to select a left tackle with the 4th pick to give Campbell the best opportunity to succeed.

9. Bills
The Bills also showed an initial interest in Clausen. And unlike the Redskins, they don’t have a viable option on their roster if they don’t land a quarterback in the draft. They could survive the next season with Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm, but they’d much rather find their quarterback of the future in this draft. The Bills are probably the most likely landing spot, however, they have also showed a strong interest in Tim Tebow. Its possible that the Bills would either trade this pick to move back in the 1st round, or trade their next year’s 1st-round back pick to move back into the 1st round in an effort to land Tebow there.

13/17. 49ers
If the 49ers want Clausen, they can have him. Their two 1st-round picks would be enough to move into the top 10 to select him if he’s their guy. However, they’ve given no indication that they’re interested in making such a move. That said, if he falls down the board and he’s sitting there are No. 13 or 17, he may be too good to pass up. They want to give Alex Smith another shot, but they aren’t expecting him to turn into a future star at this point. Clausen’s upside is far greater than Smith’s at this point in their careers.

14. Seahawks
The trade for Whitehurst likely takes the Seahawks out of the running for Clausen with the 6th pick. However, they may reconsider their stance if he’s still on the board with the 14th selection. The dropoff in money from No. 6 to No. 14 is significant, which may make them more comfortable with the selection. It’s probably a long shot, but it can’t be ruled out.

30. Vikings
If Clausen gets past the Seahawks and 49ers the most likely scenario is that someone who already passed on him (Bills? Redskins?) trades back into the 1st round to select him. It would be a similar scenario to what the Browns did to acquire Brady Quinn in 2007. But assuming everyone stays put, his next most likely landing spot would be Minnesota. It certainly sounds like Brett Favre will be back in 2010, but he obviously can’t be counted on beyond this season. If Clausen is on the board at No. 30 it would be very difficult to pass him up. He could sit and learn behind one of the all-time greats for a season while learning the offense before taking over in 2011.

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, 49ers, Bills, Redskins, Seahawks, Vikings 1 Comment

Will someone please sign Jared Gaither

I’ve asked this before, but he remains unsigned, so I’ll ask it again: Why doesn’t anyone want Jared Gaither?

WI: Baltimore Ravens v Green Bay PackersIn his third year in the league in ’09, Gaither blossomed into a Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle, more than adequately filling the shoes of his predecessor Jonathan Ogden. He ultimately wasn’t selected to the Pro Bowl, primarily due to the fact that he missed five games last season, but the honor is surely in his future.

If you don’t know much about Gaither its probably due to the fact that he skipped the April draft process, entering the 2007 Supplemental Draft instead. In July ’07 Gaither was ruled academically ineligible for the upcoming season, which prompted the decision. As a result, the Ravens landed themselves a 1st-round talent with a 5th-round selection.

After backing up Ogden in ’07, Gaither took over in 2008. He was impressive as a sophomore, but reached elite status in 2009. Despite his performance, the Ravens only tendered him at the 1st-round level, leaving them susceptible to Gaither signing elsewhere.

Personally, I would rather spend my 1st-round pick on a proven 24-year-old than take a chance on anyone in the draft, even this year’s top prospect, Russell Okung.

ProFootballFocus grades Gaither very favorably, ranking him 6th overall among offensive tackles. However, their ratings are accumulated throughout the season, favoring the players who appeared in all 16 games. Given the fact that he only played 11 games in 2009 I decided to take their ratings and adjust them based on number of snaps played to see where Gaither would rank. Taking the overall rating and dividing by snaps played you get this list “per snap” rating list:

It should be noted that Gaither’s injuries are part of the equation as to why teams may not be interested, but if you simply look at his production on the field there’s no denying his status as an elite left tackle.

Applying this to the draft, how could any team targeting an offensive tackle not give serious consideration to Gaither?

Teams like the Redskins, Seahawks, Raiders, Bills, 49ers, Cardinals and Cowboys are all in the market for an upgrade at left tackle. Would they honestly rather take a risk on Okung, Bryan Bulaga, Trent Williams or Anthony Davis instead of Gaither?

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, 49ers, Bills, Cardinals, Cowboys, Free Agency, Raiders, Ravens, Redskins, Seahawks 2 Comments

Where will Brady Quinn land?

Cleveland Browns v Kansas City Chiefs

Is Quinn done in Cleveland?

The Browns are reportedly shopping Brady Quinn. And while I personally think its ludicrous to trade a former 1st-round pick after just 12 career starts, its looks like he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2010.

Any team acquiring a 25-year-old quarterback with just 12 starts under his belt would be doing so with the intention of making him the starter and developing him as the franchise quarterback. Quinn has sat on the bench long enough, its time to give him a chance to play.

Unfortunately for the Browns, the list of teams capable of committing to a new starting quarterback is fairly small. And his trade value is further hurt by the fact that the teams that may be interested in a 25-year-old quarterback are also in position to potentially land Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen in the draft.

Let’s take a look at the teams that may show an interest in Quinn:

St. Louis Rams
The Rams are obviously in the market for a new franchise quarterback. Marc Bulger is likely to be released, creating an opening for someone to step in and start from day one. This would be an ideal scenario for Quinn, but the Rams also own the No. 1 overall pick and appear to be leaning towards selecting Bradford.

Washington Redskins
Jason Campbell was tendered at a 1st-round value, meaning he’ll likely be back in Washington unless the ‘Skins can find a trading partner. If he’s traded, they would certainly become a potential landing spot for Quinn, but a lot has to happen first. They would also have to decide to pass on Clausen and/or Bradford in the draft, as at least one of the two should be on the board at No. 4.

Buffalo Bills
The Bills may be the most likely suitor for Quinn. They’re in the market for a new franchise quarterback, but aren’t in position to guarantee themselves a shot at Bradford or Clausen in the draft. That uncertainty may lead them to address the need via trade. There have been whispers that they may be interested in Jason Campbell, but Quinn is younger and certainly has more upside at this stage in his career.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars don’t need a new quarterback for 2010. But Jack Del Rio hasn’t exactly expressed confidence in David Garrard this offseason. If they could get Quinn at a discounted price due to a lack of interest from others (3rd or 4th round pick perhaps) they may be willing to bring him aboard.

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in Bills, Browns, Free Agency, Jaguars, Rams, Redskins Comments Off

10 Teams that Need a Quarterback

It isn’t always the deepest position in the draft. And it doesn’t always have the top prospects. But regardless of the current class, the one position that always gets the most attention is quarterback. Aside from the teams selecting in the top 10, its too early to really gauge who’s interested in who. But what we can do is analyze which teams actually need a quarterback the most.

Below are the 10 teams we’ve identified as having the greatest need for a new franchise signal caller:

Denver Broncos v Oakland Raiders1. Oakland Raiders - We’re now three years into the JaMarcus Russell era and he’s shown absolutely no improvement. For some quarterbacks it takes longer to develop, but at this point in time Russell isn’t anywhere close to being an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. It’s just about time to mark him down as one of the biggest busts of all time. That said, I’m not sure Al Davis feels the same way. I’d be fairly surprised to see the Raiders bring in another quarterback within the first three rounds in this year’s draft.

2. St. Louis Rams – Marc Bulger will likely return for 2010 and, if healthy, could lead the Rams back to respectability. But he clearly isn’t the long-term answer and the Rams will strongly consider drafting Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford with the 1st-overall selection.

3. Buffalo Bills – Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm and Ryan Fitzpatrick all started for the Bills this season and all three were equally mediocre. The Bills could trudge through 2010 with one of them as the starter, but they are clearly in the market for a new franchise quarterback.

4. Washington Redskins - As I’ve stated before, I don’t actually think Redskins need a new quarterback. Jason Campbell is capable of being a starter in this league. That said, his career in Washington certainly appears to be over. Given that they don’t have an adequate replacement on the current roster, all signs point to the Redskins selecting Clausen or Bradford the 1st round.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Matt Hasselbeck will be back for at least another year, but the Seahawks are already looking for his replacement. Clausen and Bradford are both options in the 1st round. However, Carroll doesn’t appear to be taking a rebuilding approach this offseason. He may prefer to select an impact player in the 1st round and grab someone like Sean Canfield in the 3rd or 4th round to develop behind Hasselbeck.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars - David Garrard made the Pro Bowl this year, but Jack Del Rio doesn’t exactly sound like he’s sold on Garrard’s long-term future with the team.

7. Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton was great for half the season, but stumbled down the stretch. He’s an unrestricted free agent and the Broncos may have no choice but to keep him around if they want to compete in 2010. That doesn’t mean, however, that he’s a long-term solution.

8. Carolina Panthers – Matt Moore played well in relief of Jake Delhomme late in the year, but he’s a restricted free agent. The Panthers have a big decision on their hands: do they pay Moore and cut ties with Delhomme or give their former Super Bowl quarterback another shot?

9. San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith didn’t exactly look like a former No. 1 overall pick this season, but he didn’t look like the complete bust that we saw through the first four seasons of his career either. He’ll be back in 2010, but the Niners should consider taking a flier on someone in the 3rd or 4th round.

10. Cleveland Browns – The Browns are proof that having two quarterbacks causes nothing but problems. Neither Anderson nor Quinn has been able to stay on the field more than a few games at a time over the last two seasons, leaving the Browns with no real clear idea as to what they have at the position. Quinn deserves another shot, but the Browns will certainly entertain the idea of trading both and starting over.

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, 49ers, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Jaguars, Panthers, Raiders, Rams, Redskins, Seahawks 29 Comments

Do The Redskins Really Need a Quarterback?

Between now and the NFL Draft, we will run a series of articles analyzing each team’s needs using stats provided by ProFootballFocus.com

redskinsNew Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has said he’s willing to give Jason Campbell a chance, but we all know Daniel Snyder will be pushing hard for either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford in the draft. For all intents and purposes, Campbell’s career in Washington would appear to be over. But do the Redskins really need a new quarterback?

There’s no question that Campbell isn’t a franchise quarterback. He isn’t on the level of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and never will be. But the stats seam to indicate that Campbell can be a winning quarterback in this league.

Using the stats at ProFootballFocus I tried to go beyond the box score to examine just how effective Campbell was in 2009, independent of those around him.

NFL Bucs Defensive End Gaines Adams 1983-2010 dies at 26 - Heart FailureThe first thing I looked at was how much Campbell was hurt by his offensive line. Once Chris Samuels went down with a potential career-ending injury in Week 5, the Redskins suddenly had one of the worst offensive lines in the game. Levi Jones was picked up midseason to play left tackle, but was just a shell of his former self. The result was a battered and bruised quarterback.

Campbell was sacked 42 times, tied for the third most in the league. But that doesn’t really tell us how much his linemen impacted his stats. To do this, I looked up which quarterbacks where hit while throwing most often and which ones had the most balls batted down or tipped at the line of scrimmage – the two stats that best quantify the offensive line’s impact on the quarterback’s stats. As expected, Campbell ranked near the top in each category.

jasoncampbell_hit
It wasn’t just the offensive line that gave Campbell trouble though. His receiver’s didn’t help much either. If you remove the times Campbell threw the ball away or spiked the ball, he made 483 pass attempts this past season. 30 of those, or 6.2 percent, were dropped. It isn’t a horrendous percentage, but still high enough to rank him 18th among quarterbacks that took at least 25 percent of their teams snaps.Washington Redskins v Arizona Cardinals

To expand upon this, I added the drops to the balls thrown away and spiked and removed them from his pass attempts. I then divided his completions by this new pass attempts number to find his “true completion percentage”.

The top 10 in this category reads like a who’s who of the game’s top quarterbacks… plus Jason Campbell.

jasoncampbell_truecomppct

I would be remiss if I didn’t also throw some blame in the direction of the coaching staff. Over the first 13 games of the season, Campbell threw the ball on 58.4 percent of his snaps – a high, but not out of the ordinary percentage. Over the final three weeks – during which he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt, down from 7.4 through the first 13 weeks – Campbell threw the ball 69.4 percent of the time. With an offensive line as porous as the Redskins, that’s an inexcusable percentage for their coaches to call. Quite simply, they put Campbell in a position to fail.

After looking at these stats I see no reason why Jason Campbell couldn’t eventually be a successful quarterback in the NFL. Rather than rebuild with a rookie quarterback, the smarter move may actually be to draft a player such as Russell Okung and attempt to acquire a proven receiver such as Anquan Boldin in the offseason. That said, it sounds as though the end of this book has already been written. Too many bridges have been burnt for Campbell to revive his career in Washington.

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, Redskins 1 Comment

Will the Redskins Draft a Quarterback?

Every year there’s one or two teams in the top 10 that don’t have an obvious need, and their decision ends up playing a significant role in shaping the draft. This year, that team is the Redskins.

The ‘Skins most obvious need is left tackle due to the likely career-ending neck injury to Chris Samuels earlier this season. However, Jason Campbell is far from an elite quarterback and Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen may decide to go in a different direction.

While the Redskins could certainly win with Campbell, provided they surround him with a few more weapons, I fully expect them to select either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen.

The reason is simple: Mike Shanahan loves big arms.

Obviously Shanahan inherited John Elway, so we’ll exclude him from the list, but consider who he selected as his primary post-Elway quarterbacks. While Brian Griese’s arm strength was just adequate, Shanahan wasn’t making the personnel decisions in 1998 when Griese was drafted. However, it was Shanahan’s call to sign Jake Plummer and draft Jay Cutler – both of whom could chuck the ball all over the field.

Perhaps his selection of Cutler is most noteworthy, since he was the only quarterback Shanahan has drafted in the 1st round. It shows Shanahan’s decision to have a quarterback capable of making the necessary deep throws.

Now this doesn’t give us much insight into their decision between Bradford and Clausen since both have above average arms, but it would appear to rule out Jason Campbell as a long-term solution for the Redskins (not that this comes as a shock to anyone).

Ultimately, while I believe Campbell is an adequate NFL starting quarterback, he simply doesn’t have the skill set to allow Mike Shanahan to run his offense.

Posted on by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, Redskins Comments Off