Posts belonging to Category Broncos

Most Denver Broncos fans probably won’t want to acknowledge this, but John Elway and his staff are probably going to bring in a quarterback, not just to backup Tim Tebow, but to seriously push him for the starting job.

Regardless of what you think of Tebow, he deserves to be recognized for his clutch performances. At times it seemed like he truly did will the Broncos to victory. In terms of team success, he exceeded all expectations.

But the fact remains that the Broncos scored two or fewer touchdowns in five of their seven victories with Tebow as the starter. And when you win games like that, it is never the quarterback’s doing.

The real MVP in Denver was the defense, which allowed 13 points or fewer in five of Tebow’s 11 starts – four of which resulted in wins that were unfairly credited to the Tebow by the media.

It’s tough to evaluate Tebow given his unorthodox style of play, but by using ESPN’s Total QBR we can reasonably compare him to more traditional pocket passers. Total QBR grades a quarterback’s performance in a given situation, and rewards players who make positive plays in clutch moments – regardless of whether the play is a run or pass.

One might expect this formula to favor Tebow more than the traditional statistics. However, of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Tebow ranked 32nd – ahead of only Curtis Painter and Blaine Gabbert.

Tebow’s Total QBR of 27.2 is something awful (50 is considered average), but what makes it worse is his inconsistency.

Using each quarterback’s single-game QBRs, compared to their season-ending QBR we can determine who was most consistent – and Tebow ranks among the worst. On average, Tebow’s performance was anywhere for 23.8 points above or below his Total QBR.

One could argue that this shows his ability to perform at a high level, but 23.8 points above his average still only gets him to a Total QBR of 51 – roughly the league average.

A further examination of Tebow’s QBR also shows us that, contrary to popular belief, the Broncos did not live and die by his performance. (more…)

The Broncos had too many holes to fill in just one draft, but they did a nice job identifying the most glaring issues and got the rebuilding process started. The franchise won’t be turned around in one year, but this was a step in the right direction.

Von Miller was a legitimate early 1st-round prospect, but taking him at No. 2 was a reach – especially considering the fact that his ideal position was as a 3-4 outside linebacker. A strong case could be made that he was the best available player for a team like Buffalo or Arizona, but not the Broncos. That’s not to say he’ll fail – I still think he can be a quality starter – but he may never fully live up to expectations.

I love the selection of Rahim Moore in the 2nd round. He’ll spend a year in a backup role learning behind Brian Dawkins before taking over the starting free safety job in 2011. This is an ideal situation for both Moore and the Broncos.

The Broncos reached slightly for Orlando Franklin, who has a ton of ability but never fulfilled expectations at Miami. He primarily played left tackle at Miami, but lacks the athleticism necessary to play that position at the next level. He may even need to shift inside to guard.

It’s hard not to root for Nate Irving, who missed the entire 2009 season due to injuries a devastating car crash. He was tremendously productive in his return this past season and should only continue to get better the further removed he is from those injuries. He could prove to be a steal from the 3rd round.

Quinton Carter could be a nice compliment to Rahim Moore in the Broncos secondary. He has the ability to play either safety position and could potentially win a starting job at strong safety down the road. In the meantime, he’ll make an immediate impact on special teams.

Julius Thomas is a converted basketball player who has a lot of upside, but will offer very little help in 2011. The Broncos are desperate for a pass-catching tight end, so it would have been nice to see them add someone who could make more of an immediate impact.

Mike Mohamed is a smart, fundamentally sound player who should be a solid backup in Denver. He could play inside or weak-side linebacker.

Virgil Green is a similar prospect to Julius Thomas, and may actually offer more in terms of immediate contribution. He’s an elite athlete for the position and could be used as a weapon in the passing game.

Jeremy Beal was a productive collegiate lineman/linebacker but has limited athleticism and may have already maxed out his potential. He’s worth taking a chance on in the 7th round, but he’ll have to fight just to make the roster.

The Broncos added only one immediate starter (Miller) which is somewhat disappointing. Down the road, however, Moore, Franklin, Irving and possibly Carter and Thomas could develop into starters. That’s too many ifs to give them an A, but the class certainly has the potential to improve their grade over the course of the next few years.

It’s taken some time, but the top five of the mock draft is finally taking shape just hours before the draft starts.

Now that the Panthers have settled on Cam Newton, the Denver Broncos have leaked that they’re prepared to take Von Miller with the second overall selection.

While this may appear to be a late development, the only thing late about it is the media catching on. According to a source, Miller has been No. 1 on the Broncos draft board since Monday (and was likely No.1 long before that).

This news essentially puts the Bills on the clock with Marcell Dareus and Blaine Gabbert as their two options.

There has been plenty of speculation that the Denver Broncos new regime may not be sold in Tim Tebow. Now they may be starting to set in motion the events that will eventually cut Tebow’s career short in Denver.

According to various reports, the Broncos are expected to bring Jake Locker in for a private workout prior to the draft.

As always, this doesn’t mean that the Broncos have their heart set on Locker. However, the fact that they’re interviewing a quarterback who will be selected in the first two rounds is noteworthy. Teams only get 30 interviews, so they’re unlikely to waste one on a player that they have absolutely no intention of drafting.

So while this certainly doesn’t mean that Locker is going to push Tebow out of Denver it does mean that the Broncos would consider selecting a quarterback, possibly as early as the 2nd round.

Von Miller‘s stock has been on the rise throughout the offseason and it appears as though he’s headed towards a spot in the top five or six picks.

Miller has reportedly already scheduled workouts with the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns – who own three of the first six picks in April’s draft.

The fact that Miller could go in the top five isn’t a surprise, but it is interesting that he’s drawing interest from nearly everyone at the top of the draft.

A fourth team in the top six, the Arizona Cardinals, may actually be the team most likely to draft Miller. They’re desperate for youth at linebacker and Miller would be a perfect fit in their 3-4 scheme. In my latest mock draft I have Miller going 5th overall to Arizona.

Update: Miller worked out for the Cardinals on March 15

Matt Peterson tracks the offseason needs of every team in the league. Today’s franchise, the Denver Broncos. [full archive here].

Season Recap – Denver’s season suffered greatly from Josh McDaniels and his questionable player trades, namely shipping off stud running back Peyton Hillis for third string quarterback Brady Quinn. McDaniels did select Tim Tebow in the draft last season, and there were glimpses of greatness from the league-leading jersey seller. This offseason, Denver must add protection for Tebow and pieces to its defense, as they transition back into the 4-3 under John Fox.

Needs:
1. Defensive Tackle - The past two seasons, Denver brought in defensive lineman for the 3-4, but now they must find true defensive tackles for the 4-3 alignment they plan to run. As of now, Denver has one of the worst front sevens in football and adding a tackle atop the draft will help the entire unit improve. Look for either Marcel Dareus or Nick Fairley to fill the void this offseason. (more…)

Conventional wisdom says the Broncos will address their defense with the 2nd-overall selection in April’s draft. This likely means deciding between Nick Fairley, Da’Quan Bowers and Patrick Peterson.

At the moment, defensive line looks like their most pressing need. However, that could all change if Champ Bailey decides to leave once free agency opens (if it ever does).

Is Champ Bailey done in Denver?

If we ever get to the point where teams are allowed to negotiate with free agents, Bailey would certainly have good reasons to leave Denver. He’ll be 33 in June and has won just one playoff game in his seven years with the Broncos. If he wants to chase a championship, Denver probably isn’t the place to do that.

Bailey’s departure would leave the Broncos with journeyman Andre Goodman and troubled rookie Parrish Cox as their starting cornerbacks. Cox, however, may not even be available for all or part of the 2011 season and beyond, depending on the outcome of his arrest for sexual assault.

Given these potential departures from the Broncos secondary, Patrick Peterson may start to look like the most attractive option in the draft. He compares favorably to Bailey, and is one of the most talented corners to enter the draft in a number of years.

The Broncos may also be swayed toward Peterson due to the depth in this year’s defensive line class. The difference in talent between Peterson and potential early 2nd-round options (Brandon Harris, Aaron Williams) is far greater than the difference between Fairley/Bowers and a player such as Cameron Heyward, who may still be available with the 36th pick.

Nearly one-third of the league could have new starting quarterbacks by September. Due to a greater demand than supply, it’s likely that not all of these teams find themselves a new signal caller, but here are the top 10 teams we’ve identified as most likely to have a new quarterback in 2011.

10. Broncos
It sounds as though Josh McDaniels was the lone Tebow support in Denver, and with him gone it seems likely that the Broncos will consider other options. John Fox has indicated that he likes Tim Tebow, but he also isn’t ready to commit to a starting quarterback. They’re unlikely to address this need in the draft, but signing a veteran is a strong possibility.

9. Raiders
Jason Campbell is still under contract but their other four quarterbacks (seriously, they have four other quarterbacks on the roster) are free agents. Keeping Campbell is a definite possibility, but you just never know what Al Davis as in mind. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of them trading up into the 1st-round (they already traded their own 1st-round pick) in an effort to land Cam Newton or Jake Locker.

8. Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck is a free agent and may return, but he doesn’t have much left in the tank. They would certainly love to have Hasselbeck around to groom a young quarterback, but I don’t expect the Seahawks to commit to him as the starter. If he wants a guarantee that he’ll be a starter for the next year or two, he may need to go elsewhere.

7. Dolphins
Owner Stephen Ross has stated that he wants a creative, hurry-up offense in 2011, and that won’t be happening with Chad Henne under center. The Dolphins have grown tired of his slow development and seem ready to move on. Drafting a quarterback (possibly Newton) is a possibility, but they may prefer to bring in a veteran in an effort to turn things around quickly.

6. Bills
With the 3rd pick in the draft the Bills could have their pick of the quarterbacks, and Blaine Gabbert is a definite possibility. But the reason I don’t rank them higher is because I think they’ll strongly consider bringing Ryan Fitzpatrick back for another season. He was one of the biggest surprises of the 2010 season. The Bills may even draft Gabbert, or someone in the 2nd or 3rd round, and let them sit for a year behind Fitzpatrick.

5. Titans
Vince Young is as good as gone, and Kerry Collins is a free agent. However, I wouldn’t rule out Collins’ return. The Titans are in position to draft a quarterback (Gabbert, Newton or Mallett) and I suspect Jeff Fisher will prefer to keep Collins around to help groom their future franchise quarterback.

4. Redskins
After getting benched in favor of Rex Grossman, it’s hard to imagine Donovan McNabb returning to Washington. It’s equally difficult to image the Redskins sticking with Grossman for 2011. With the 10th pick in the draft Mike Shanahan is in position to select his quarterback of the future. Ryan Mallett and Newton are both strong possibilities.

3. Vikings
We know Favre won’t be back (and I actually believe him this time) and Tarvaris Jackson is a free agent. Joe Webb performed far better than anyone could have expected of a guy who was drafted as a wide receiver, but I can’t imagine Leslie Frazier sticking with him for 2011. The Vikings will either draft a quarterback (Newton or Mallett) or bring in a veteran (possibly Kevin Kolb).

2. Cardinals
Ken Whisenhunt wasn’t happy with the Cardinals quarterback situation entering last season and I’m guessing he’s even less pleased after seeing how it played out.  Drafting Blaine Gabbert is a possibility, but I suspect Whisenhunt would prefer to bring a veteran aboard, as he did last offseason. Either way, their opening day starter is definitely not on the current roster.

1. 49ers
Alex Smith and Troy Smith are both free agent and I would be very surprised if either returned.  I currently have them selecting Gabbert in my mock draft, but trading for Kevin Kolb is also possibility. Another option is signing a veteran, such as Matt Hasselbeck or Seneca Wallace, to keep the seat warm for whoever Jim Harbaugh choses to groom for the position.

It seems like every day a new reporter finds “sources” to tell him that Andrew Luck is leaning toward staying in school. I’m inclined to call “BS” on anyone who says Luck is leaning towards staying at Stanford, especially since it sounds as though Jim Harbaugh is as good as gone. But I’ll humor those who think he’s staying for a moment and throw together a quick mock draft based on the scenario that he stays. Here’s the top 10 of the “what if Luck stays” mock draft…

1. Panthers – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson
The Panthers don’t need a quarterback, so they won’t take one unless Luck is there. Their pass rush was abysmal this season, and they missed Julius Peppers even more than anyone could have anticipated. Bowers is coming off a monster year and should be an instant-impact pass rusher at the next level.

2. Broncos – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
With Josh McDaniels gone, the Broncos may be ready to give up on Tim Tebow after just three games. However, I don’t think they’ll reach for someone like Newton or Mallett with the second pick. The safe bet is to take Peterson, the best available player. Champ Bailiey may not return, and even if he does he’s on the downswing of his career.

3. Bengals – A.J. Green – WR – Georgia
One of the biggest decisions any team has to make this offseason is the Bengals’ looming decision about Carson Palmer. They could cut him loose and draft a new franchise quarterback here. I don’t think they’re willing to give up yet, however. A.J. Green is an elite talent and could be the young receiver Palmer needs to get the offense back on track.

4. Bills – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
The Bills need a quarterback to build around and should be able to get one in this year’s draft. But who will it be? Mallett, Locker and Newton are all worth considering. It’s pure speculation at this point, but I think Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix will lean toward the strong-armed Mallett.

5. Cardinals – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
The Cardinals are another team in need of a quarterback, but I expect Ken Whisenhunt to push for them to bring in a veteran.  As a result, they’ll turn their attention to the defense in the draft, landing either Amukamara, Cameron Jordan or Nick Fairley here.

6. 49ers – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
Until a GM and a coach are in place it’s tough to predict how the 49ers will handle the draft. But one thing is certain: they need a quarterback. If they need to make a decision between Newton and Locker, expect Newton to be their guy.

7. Cowboys – Cameron Jordan – DE – California
Jordan isn’t nearly the most well-known of the top 3-4 defensive ends, but I believe he is the best of the bunch. The Cowboys will be looking to improve the defense, making Jordan a strong possibility here.

8. Texans – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
The Texans need to address their secondary, but with Peterson and Amukamara off the board they must turn their attention to the defensive line. Fairley is an elite pass-rushing interior lineman who reminds me of Ndamukong Suh.

9. Lions – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
The Lions offense is progressing, but the defense still has some holes. Kyle Vanden Bosch hasn’t worked out and the Lions will likely look to upgrade their pass rush this offseason. Quinn may be the best pass-rushing end available in this draft class.

10. Browns – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
The Browns are now committed to Colt McCoy, but now they need to supply him with some weapons. Jones, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Jon Baldwin and Torrey Smith could all be options depending on who leaves early for the draft.

- The length of the contract is shocking. But since there are no guaranteed deals, it doesn’t really mean anything. What’s more shocking is the $40M guaranteed. Let’s say he plays three years in Washington (probably a more realistic length than five years), that means he gets a minimum average of $13.3M per year (which will actually end up being higher, but we won’t know how much until more details of the contract are released).

Can McNabb and Shanahan coexist? Or will Shanahan be one-and-done in Washington?

- While I was updating my mock draft this weekend (update coming tomorrow morning) I strongly considered giving Ryan Mallett to the Redskins. Mike Shanahan seemed displeased with McNabb, and I thought he would consider getting “his guy” in the draft. Mallett is a true pocket passer with a strong arm – much like Jay Cutler, who Shanahan drafted while in Denver.

- This is pure speculation, but consider this scenario… what if GM Bruce Allen inked this deal without Mike Shanahan’s blessing? Could it create bad blood between Shanahan and the front office? Could it lead to Shanahan getting out of his contract? And could it then lead to him coaching the Cowboys next season? As I said, it’s 100% pure speculation, but given Shanahan’s recent comments about McNabb’s conditioning/ability to run the offense, it would certainly seem plausible.

- [UPDATE] Apparently the original report from ESPN’s Michael Smith was incorrect. McNabb is not guaranteed $40M. In fact, he’s only guaranteed $3.5M. Oops… so basically we’re right back where we started. McNabb is under contract, but the Redskins have next to nothing invested in him. He could still easily be gone at the end of the season.