Does the signing of Kampman change the Jaguars draft plans?

On Sunday the Jaguars signed former Packers DE/LB Aaron Kampman to address their need for a pass rusher. But is it enough?

The Jaguars managed just 14 sacks in 2010, easily the lowest total in the league. 2008 1st and 2nd round picks Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves struggled mightily in pass-rush situations and the Jaguars are clearly entertaining the idea of moving on.

It had been widely assumed that the Jaguars would consider Derrick Morgan with the 10th overall selection but the signing of Kampman puts that into doubt. Jack Del Rio has expressed hope that Derrick Harvey can still develop into a quality starter, which may mean the defensive line is set for 2010.

On paper, the Kampman signing looks like it may be enough. While Harvey has been considered a bust by some, he’s actually been well above average against the run. Adding a pass rusher like Kampman on the other side could actually give the Jaguars a very formidable pair of ends.

The other issue at play is how much money the Jaguars are willing to commit to their defensive line. If they drafted Morgan and kept Harvey they’d have two 1st-round picks and Kampman – that’s a lot of money tied up in one position.

Ultimately I don’t think the Jaguars can afford to draft Morgan. At this point another defensive end would qualify as a luxury pick and the Jaguars have too many holes to go that route. Players such as Dez Bryant and Joe Haden may be available and would fill positions of need.

As much as a like Morgan, taking him 10th overall would be an irresponsible move by GM Gene Smith.

Posted on March 7, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, Free Agency, Jaguars 4 Comments

Where will Brian Westbrook land?

The Eagles announced that they will part ways with veteran running back Brian Westbrook earlier this week. The move doesn’t come as a surprise, but it should make teams extremely hesitant to acquire the 30-year-old running back.

Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Redskins

Whoever signs Westbrook should be prepared for this scene to repeat itself

LeSean McCoy will be the feature back in Philly, but the Eagles lack a reliable backup. Behind McCoy on the current depth chart are Eldra Buckley, Dwayne Wright and Martell Mallett. The fact that the Eagles are willing to part with a veteran like Westbrook means they obviously don’t believe he can stay healthy and produce over the course of a season.

Westbrook’s career may very well be over, but because of his past success, there will undoubtedly be some teams that pick up the phone and give him a call. So where might Westbrook land? Assuming he’s healthy, here are some options:

5. Rams
The Rams probably aren’t Westbrook’s first choice, but given the serious concerns about his health he may not be sought after by the serious contenders. The Rams would like to limit Steven Jackson’s carries, but they don’t currently have an adequate backup. Westbrook’s ability as a blocker and receiver would make him a perfect fit.

4. 49ers
The 49ers are in the market for a change-of-pace back to pair with Frank Gore. They’re more likely to address this need in the draft, but Westbrook could be brought in for his veteran leadership on a team that’s trying to take the next step towards the playoffs.

3. Packers
The Packers are a legitimate title contender, which would be appealing to Westbrook. From the Packers standpoint, they would love to add a backup to share the load with Ryan Grant who has been workhorse over the past two seasons.

2. Steelers
Westbrook is a similar player to Willie Parker who is an unrestricted free agent and appears unlikely to return. The Steelers may decide this would be too much of a lateral move, but a healthy Westbrook would be the perfect compliment to Rashard Mendenhall.

1. Vikings
The Vikings may take themselves out of the running by re-signing Chester Taylor, but if Taylor departs Westbrook would be the perfect replacement. Brad Childress is familiar with Westbrook from his days in Philadelphia, which would give both of them a comfort level from day one. Westbrook’s ability as a receiver would make him the perfect compliment to Adrian Peterson.

Posted on February 25, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in 49ers, Eagles, Free Agency, Packers, Rams, Steelers, Vikings Comments Off

Brian Westbrook

Who will start at ILB for the Giants in 2010?

There’s no question what the Giants biggest need is this offseason. By parting ways with Antonio Pierce, the Giants opened up a gaping hole at inside linebacker.

Will Jonathan Goff be starting for the Giants in 2010?

The in-house option as Pierce’s replacement would be 2008 5th-round pick Jonathan Goff. After Pierce went down with a season ending neck injury this past season, the Giants moved Goff into the starting lineup and shortly thereafter the defense went down the drain.

Now I’m not blaming Goff for the 85 points the Giants gave up in the final two weeks of the season, but he certainly didn’t help matters. He’s an adequate run defender, but really struggles in coverage. Unfortunately, the Giants rely heavily on their inside linebackers in coverage, rarely using them as pass rushers.

Assuming Tom Coughlin isn’t satisfied moving forward with Goff as the starter, who could the Giants bring in as a replacement? Here’s a few ideas:

5. DeMeco Ryans
Ryans is a restricted free agent, so he’s a long shot, but he’s worth mentioning. Some may argue he’s the top available linebacker in this year’s free agent class. Odds are the Texans will tender him the rate which would require a 1st and 3rd round draft pick should he sign elsewhere, a price which would be too steep for the Giants.

4. Rolando McClain
If he falls in the draft the Giants would waste no time snatching him up. However, that’s never going to happen. If the Giants want him they’ll have to trade up. Should he fall past the Chiefs at the 5th pick, the Giants should get on the phone and see what it would take to trade up.

3. Sean Weatherspoon
If the Giants choose not to trade up for McClain, Weatherspoon would be the only reasonable option with the 15th pick. It would be a reach, but he’s capable of playing in the Giants defensive scheme. Weatherspoon excels in coverage, making him an excellent fit for the Giants.

2. Brandon Spikes/Daryl Washington/Pat Angerer/Sean Lee
If the Giants don’t land a linebacker in the 1st round, they’ll have to strongly consider landing one in the 2nd or 3rd. There are a number of options, but the Giants would certainly be disappointed if it came to this. None of these options would immediately jump Goff on the depth chart, but would be given the opportunity to compete for a job.

1. Karlos Dansby
Dansby will be one of the most sought after free agents on the market this year now that the Cardinals have chosen not to place the franchise tag on him. He is an elite coverage linebacker, making him the perfect fit for the Giants. They’ll have to out-bid a number of teams for his services, including the Dolphins and multiple others, but he would be worth the hefty price tag.

Posted on February 25, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, Free Agency, Giants Comments Off

Where will Julius Peppers play in 2010?

The Panthers have decided not to place the franchise tag on Julius Peppers, which likely means his time in Carolina is over.

Its an interesting decision for the Panthers. As a team they totaled just 31 sacks this past season, 10.5 of which came from Peppers. In an era where teams are paying big money for elite pass rushers such as Peppers and Jared Allen, it makes you wonder what they think of Peppers off the field. Rumors have swirled that his work ethic and desire to succeed are lacking, and this decision certainly gives teams reason to look further into those claims.

So with that in mind, where could Peppers land this offseason. Here are the top five most likely destinations:

5. Jaguars
The Jaguars have to make a tough decision this offseason regarding 2008 1st and 2nd round picks Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. Both struggled immensely this past season and the Jags ranked dead last in the NFL with just 14 sacks. Popular opinion right now is that the Jaguars will target a defensive end in the draft, but adding a veteran like Peppers would be a much safer route to take.

4. Falcons
The Falcons may hesitate to add another aging lineman to pair with John Abraham, but their pass rush is in need of an upgrade. 2007 1st-round pick Jamaal Anderson has struggled to live up to expectations and the Falcons may be ready to move on. If the Falcons want to make a splash this offseason, stealing Peppers from a division rival would certainly be one way to make that happen.

3. Packers
If Peppers is prepared to make the transition to outside linebacker, Green Bay would be an ideal landing place. They’re likely parting ways with Aaron Kampman who struggled to transition from down-lineman to outside lineback in Dom Capers new 3-4 defense. Pepers may also have size to play defensive end in a 3-4 defense, but that would really be a waste of his pass-rush ability.

2. Patriots
The Patriots reportedly have a strong interest in Peppers. They desperately need to upgrade their pass rush, so the interest makes sense. However, I’m not sure he’s a great fit. Peppers appears to be a little oversized to stand up and play outside linebacker in the Patriots 3-4 scheme. I’m not sure he’s athletic enough to handle the coverage responsibilities that come with playing linebacker which he hasn’t encountered in Carolina.

1. Bears
This looks like the perfect match for both sides. The Bears have a veteran defense and they’re clearly taking a “win now” approach over the past few offseasons. Adewale Ogunleye is an unrestricted free agent and the Bears should jump at the chance replace him with Peppers.

Posted on February 24, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in Bears, Falcons, Free Agency, Jaguars, Packers, Panthers, Patriots 1 Comment

Julius Peppers

Should the Texans franchise Dunta Robinson?

The Texans used their franchise tag on cornerback Dunta Robinson last season but have elected not to go that route this year. Robinson hasn’t exactly gotten along with the Texans’ front offense in recent years, meaning this likely spells the end of the road for him in Houston.

Its possible the Texans are just fed up with Robinson’s antics. But putting that aside, from a football standpoint, did they make the right call?

At first glance, Robinson took a major step backwards in 2009. ProFootballFocus gave him an overall rating of -11.7 this past season, ranking him 98th out of 107 cornerbacks. Upon closer examination, however, Robinson may still have what it takes to be an elite cornerback.

Through the first eight weeks of the season, Robinson was terrible. He was thrown at 34 times and allowed 22 receptions for 309 yards – an average of 9.09 yards per attempt, which would have ranked 95th in the NFL this season.

Over the next eight games, however, Robinson stepped it up allowing just 5.94 yards per attempt – a rate which would have ranked him 18th over the course of the season.

So who’s the real Dunta Robinson?

In reality, he’s probably somewhere in between. But his 2nd half performance certainly indicates that he’s capable of playing at an elite level. The issue with spending money on Robinson is that you just don’t know what you’re going to get. On a winning team, he may be motivated to play up to his potential. But as soon as things take a turn for the worse, he may pack it in. At this point you have to wonder if Robinson’s second-half performance was motivated by the fact that he could hit the open market this offseason.

Posted on February 24, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in Free Agency, Texans 2 Comments

Dunta Robinson

Who will replace L.T. in San Diego?

The Chargers officially cut ties with LaDainian Tomlinson today, arguably the greatest player in team history. From a personal standpoint, it must have been a difficult decision for the Chargers to make. From a football standpoint, it couldn’t have been easier. At this point in his career L.T. wasn’t going to be anything more than an overpaid backup in San Diego.

So where do the Chargers go from here?

Washington Redskins v San Diego Chargers

Sproles is a blur on the field, but can he handle a starting role?

Restricted free agent Darren Sproles would be the in-house solution. He’s an electrifying back and a fan favorite. He shows flashes of greatness, but he’s also only 5’6″. No matter how talented he is, he has physical limitations which will prevent him from being effective over the course of the season. Even with just 93 carries in 2009, Sproles was held to 3.7 yards per attempt – not exactly a number that should have the Chargers excited about his prospects should the workload be doubled in 2010.

Another option would be to address the need in free agency. The top unrestricted free agents are Willie Parker and Chester Taylor, but they’re 29 and 30 respectively. It would seem like an odd move to cut ties with Tomlinson only to bring in another veteran on the decline.

That could leave the Chargers with the draft as their only option to fill their hole at running back. We’ve had C.J. Spiller headed to San Diego in our mock draft for a while now, but there are numerous other options. Spiller makes the most sense because of his versatility. The Chargers used Tomlinson extensively as a receiver, a role which Spiller could immediately fill. The downside is that he has a similar skill set to Sproles. With Spiller as the starter, it would undermine Sproles’ ability to be effective as a change-of-pace back.

Another option would be Jonathan Dwyer. He’s the top-rated running back on our board, but also could be gone by the time the Chargers are on the clock. As a strong, downhill runner Dwyer would make an excellent compliment to Sproles. The downside, however, is his lack of experience as a receiver. He comes from Paul Johnson’s triple-option at Georgia Tech and would need to learn an NFL offense. That may slow his ability to make an immediate impact and fill Tomlinson’s shoes in the passing game.

Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews is also an option. He has a similar skill set to Dwyer, which brings about the same positives and negatives. He may be a slight reach in the late 1st-round, but is the safest bet to still be on the board. The lack of quality unrestricted free agents puts the Chargers in a difficult position.

Its rare that a playoff team needs to fill such a key role in the draft, but that could be the position the Chargers are in this April. It will be very interesting to see how it unfolds. GM A.J. Smith must be kicking himself for letting Michael Turner walk two years ago…

Who is the best option to replace Tomlinson as the starter in San Diego?(polls)

Posted on February 22, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in 2010 NFL Draft, Chargers, Free Agency Comments Off

The Future of the NFL: What Will An Uncapped Year Look Like?

When the clock strikes midnight on March 5, the NFL will enter a new era. As most fans are aware, the 2010 season will be “uncapped” if a new collective bargaining agreement is not reached between the owners and the players association. By all accounts, the hope that an agreement could be reached in time has long passed. So what does this mean for the NFL?

Its a complicated scenario, but we’ll do our best to break it down into a few simple points:

1. There will be no salary cap
The most simple result of not having a new CBA in place is the termination of the NFL’s salary cap. This past season the cap was $128M. The fact that a cap has been in place has held the elite player’s salaries in check, unlike in baseball which essentially uses an uncapped system. The cap has also contributed to parity within the league, allowing teams like the Packers to compete on a level playing field with the Giants and Jets. Without a cap, owners with deep pockets such as Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder could, in theory, simply buy a Super Bowl contender.

An underrated aspect of the uncapped year, however, is the fact that the salary floor will also be eliminated. The current floor ($112.1M) ensures that every team is at least trying to put a quality product on the field. In an uncapped year, especially given the state of the economy, teams that are struggling financially can cut costs without any consequences. In essence, we run the risk of seeing certain teams become the Royals and Pirates of the NFL.

This won’t just hurt the fans, however. The players will won’t necessarily see a dramatic increase in salaries because there won’t be a competitive market for their services. As teams cut costs, they’ll begin to drop out of the free agent market, limiting the number teams each player can reasonably negotiate with. The elite players can force one or two teams to get into a bidding war, but it won’t impact your average players.

2. Players must wait until they have 6 years of experience to become unrestricted free agents
Under the current CBA, players only need three years of service before they are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Take Braylon Edwards for example. His contract expires this season and he would have become an unrestricted free agent since he has been in the league for five seasons. However, if no agreement is reached Edwards will only be a restricted free agent. This will essentially force him to sign a one-year contract with the Jets before hitting the open market in 2011. In 2009, not a single restricted free agent signed with a new team – so don’t expect much turnover this offseason.

3. The “Final Eight” Plan
This is perhaps the most confusing aspect of the uncapped year. For a full explanation, flip to page 77 in the NFL’s CBA.

Essentially this means the final eight teams (those that advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs) can’t sign any free agents. They are allowed to replace departed players, but only at a comparable rate at which they were playing the departed player. There are numerous other complicated requirements which must also be met, but the result is that it will be extremely difficult for any of the “final eight” teams to improve through free agency this offseason.

4. Rookies will hold out at a record rate
The new CBA will include a rookie wage scale – something that both the owners and veteran players are pushing for. This means that the players in this year’s draft will be the last rookies to receiver ridiculous contracts. As a result, the teams owning high picks won’t want to shell out big money. They’ll take the approach of “be happy with what we’re offering ’cause you wouldn’t see half this next year.” Players, meanwhile, will be negotiating off of last year’s 1st-round contracts as they have for years.

Obviously teams want their players in camp early, but the power ultimately lies with the teams in this situation. Even if players hold out, they’ll eventually sign for less money because the alternative would be to sit out the entire season and re-enter the draft in 2011 when a wage scale will only further reduce their salary. Knowing this, teams will feel as though they have the ability to force players into contracts that don’t match up with last year’s values. It could create a messy situation and multiple Michael Crabtree-like holdouts.

5. Enjoy the 2010 season, because their may not be one in 2011
Despite the mess that may be the 2010 NFL season, you better enjoy it while it lasts. There remains a high likelihood of a lockout in March 2010. That said, no one wants to miss out on an entire season - the owners or the players.

The power here lies with the owners. They have the ability to drastically cut costs in the uncapped year due to the lack of a salary floor, essentially saving up for the potential lockout. The majority of NFL players don’t have that luxury. Sure, they’re earning millions of dollars, but the average player is out of football before they turn 30. They have a precious few years to earn their money and missing out on a full season would be devastating.

Posted on February 13, 2010 by Ryan McCrystal in Free Agency 3 Comments

Collective Bargaining Agreement

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