The Miami Dolphins announced today that they will be switching from the 3-4 defense which Bill Parcells’ staff instituted, back to a 4-3 system.

It’s a surprising move considering GM Jeff Ireland has spent a significant portion of his career working under Parcells, and has been with a team running a 3-4 base defense since he and Parcells first teamed up in Dallas in 2003.

The switch indicates that the Dolphins are prepared to enter into full rebuilding mode, a process which could take up to three years. Transitioning from one defensive scheme to another is a difficult process, and it takes time to acquire the right personnel.

The one asset the Dolphins do have is depth in the front seven. They’ll need to reshuffle the lineup, but should be able to piece together a decent defensive line. The issue will be at linebacker. Karlos Dansby will return (at inside linebacker most likely), and Kevin Burnett may land in the starting lineup again by default (probably strong-side linebacker). However, the Dolphins will need to add another starter, preferably someone who is strong in coverage.

Depending on their confidence in Cameron Wake and Koa Misi’s ability to transition to defensive end, the Dolphins could target a pass rusher with their 1st-round pick. Nick Perry and Quinton Coples would be the most likely targets.

There is also an outside shot that the Dolphins could target Luke Kuechly with the 9th pick. The move would necessitate moving Dansby to outside linebacker, where he played early in his career with the Cardinals.

Ultimately it’s too early to tell which direction the Dolphins will go, but this shift in schemes could definitely shake up the draft. It will be worth keeping an eye on their transactions in the coming months to get a better idea of who has a future with the team, and who is being phased out.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford - Scouting Report
There was a brief wave of Robert Griffin III supporters trying to create a debate, but it was short lived. Andrew Luck is head and shoulders above Griffin as a prospect and, despite Tony Dungy’s support, Griffin has no shot at going No. overall. If anything keeps Luck out of Indy, it would have to be a trade offer the Colts simply could not refuse.

2. St. Louis Rams – Matt Kalil – OT – USC - Scouting Report
The will be trade rumors involving this pick right up until draft day, but I truly believe the Rams will stay put. Matt Kalil is a franchise left tackle, and the Vikings wouldn’t hesitate to select him at No. 3. If the Rams trade down with the Browns or Redskins, they’ll miss out on Kalil, and Justin Blackmon is not an adequate consolation prize.

3. Minnesota Vikings – Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU - Scouting Report
There will be a push among Vikings fans to select Justin Blackmon, but Claiborne is probably a safer pick here and also fills a glaring hole. The Vikes have talent at cornerback, but keeping everyone healthy has been a serious problem. If they do want Blackmon, they could trade down with Redskins, who may want to jump up for RGIII.

4. Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III – QB – Baylor - Scouting Report
I’m not convinced that Colt McCoy is a bust, but this should still be an easy decision for the Browns. Griffin is an elite playmaker who has the ability to change an offense from day one. With Griffin in the fold, and possibly another offensive playmaker added later in the draft, the Browns offense would be unrecognizable in 2012.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama - Scouting Report
This is a tough one to figure out. The Bucs would love for Kalil or Claiborne to fall, but if both are off the board they don’t have an obvious option. The Bucs would probably be content to move forward with LeGarrette Blount at running back, but it will be tough to pass up Richardson, who has Adrian Peterson-like potential. Continue Reading »

Wilson could come off the board anywhere from the 3rd to 7th round

Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson was measured at 5’10 5/8″ today at the Senior Bowl. This isn’t a surprise, he was listed at 5’11″ by Wisconsin, but it is disappointing news for Wilson.

Since 1980, only two quarterbacks under 6-feet have started at least 10 games in season  - Doug Flutie (listed at 5’10″) and Pat Haden (listed a 5’11″).

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if some teams remove Wilson from their draft board. While he certainly has the arm strength and athleticism, his accuracy is often erratic and his height only further limits the number of throws he can make.

However, that doesn’t mean everyone believes Wilson’s height will slow him down.

Mayock on #Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson: “Could be Doug Flutie. I mean, that’s how good this kid is. Innate understanding of making plays.”

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) January 23, 2012

Mayock is definitely in the minority with his assessment of Wilson, but it’s proof that it only takes one. There are enough quarterback-needy teams out there that someone who misses out on a 1st or 2nd-round quarterback could take a flier on Wilson as early as the 3rd.

Here is my pre-Senior Bowl all-overrated “team.” It’s not exactly a full team because certain positions don’t have a truly overrated prospect… yet. Depending on the media’s reaction to the Senior Bowl and/or Combine, players could drop off the list, or earn their way onto the roster in the coming months.

Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden is coming off a record-setting season which put him in the Heisman conversation and elevated his NFL draft stock to surprising heights.

But there’s one problem. He’s 28 years old.

In a younger man’s body, Weeden’s talents may have earned him a late 1st-round grade from some scouts, but draft prospects – especially quarterbacks – are graded as much on their current ability, as their potential to improve. And just how much room for improvement is left in a 28 year old?

Where Weeden should be drafted will be an interesting debate to follow in the upcoming months. In 2011, 19 different quarterbacks younger than Weeden started at least five games in the NFL, many of whom could be acquired at a relatively cheap price this offseason. Alex Smith (unrestricted free agent) may be the most highly sought after, but will likely re-sign with San Francisco. Others, such as T.J. Yates, John Skelton or perhaps even Mark Sanchez could be available on the trade market.

And this list doesn’t even include others such as Chad Henne and Matt Flynn, both unrestricted free agents, who could be given an opportunity as starters elsewhere in 2012.

So who would you rather have, an unproven Brandon Weeden or a player roughly the same age who is, to some extent, a proven commodity?

While some teams may prefer Weeden, unfortunately he has little value to anyone not interested in his services as a starter. As a 28-year-old rookie, his value as a developmental prospect is limited. If you don’t envision him helping your team within the next three years, why spend a pick on Weeden, when you could spend a similar pick on a prospect with more long-term upside such as Brock Osweiler or B.J. Coleman?

- Alabama Crimson Tide cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick was arrested for possession of marijuana this week. It certainly won’t help his draft stock, but I highly doubt the arrest will have a significantly negative impact either. Front office personnel will have plenty of time to investigate Kirkpatrick by talking to his coaches at Alabama and by interviewing him at the combine. This is his only known run-in with the law, so teams should be willing to look past it.

- One of the biggest stars at the East/West Shrine Game this week has reportedly been Coastal Carolina cornerback Josh Norman. I have Norman ranked 16th at cornerback in my recently updated positional rankings, but some believe he could climb much higher. Earlier today, Russ Lande of The Sporting News stated he believed Norman could come off the board in the 2nd round.

- Another riser at the Shrine Game is Missouri Western kicker Greg Zuerline, who I have elevated to the No. 1 spot in the kicker rankings. Zuerline has the best leg of any kicker in this year’s draft, which has teams interested in his services on kickoffs as much as field goals.

It’s not often that we get to see a true one-on-one matchup of potential top-10 picks, but that’s exactly what we had this year when Stanford took on USC.

Stanford left tackle Jonathan Martin and USC defensive end Nick Perry were matched up throughout most of the game, and since you were probably focused on other things at the time (such as that guy named Luck), I encourage anyone interested to go back and watch them battle.

Perry kept Luck on the run for much of the game

While one might expect a matchup of potential top-10 prospects to be fairly even, it was anything but. Perry dominated Martin from start (literally, check out the first play) to finish.

In this game Perry exposes Martin’s biggest flaw: his lack of quickness off the snap. On roughly 60-70% of the snaps in which Martin drops into pass protection, Perry is already turning the corner or, at worst, setting up his rip move by the time Martin is getting balanced in his stance. By the time this happens, roughly one second after the ball is snapped, Perry’s already won.

Martin is a tough, physical lineman, however. He was able to slow Perry down on occasion, preventing any serious damage (Perry didn’t register a sack) but much of the credit really goes to Luck. His incredible pocket presence and quick release allowed him to narrowly avoid a rapidly approaching Perry on numerous occasions. With just about any other college quarterback under center, Perry likely racks up at least two sacks in this game.

While Perry held an obvious advantage in this matchup, it’s worth noting that on the rare occasion that Martin was able to get in front of Perry and engage him, Martin won every time. Perry lacked the strength to push past Martin, and was essentially taken out of the play.

After viewing this game, it solidifies my opinion that Martin is better suited to play right tackle, or maybe even guard. Perry projects as a starter at the next level, and an above-average pass rusher, but he’s hardly an elite prospect. If Martin is struggling with Nick Perry, what will happen when he’s faced with Julius Peppers, Jason Pierre-Paul or DeMarcus Ware?

While it comes as no surprise, Robert Griffin III has reportedly informed Baylor that he will be entering the draft.

And so begins silly season, which will feature a never ending supply of RGII rumors involving the Rams, Browns, Redskins, Seahawks, Dolphins and possibly a few others.

So let’s break down a few of the rumors before they even start…

Griffin is a top-six lock, but where will he land?

Scenario 1: Rams trade No. 2 pick to [insert QB desperate team here] - The Rams have to be ecstatic today with the news that Griffin is turning pro, which means the value of their No. 2 pick skyrockets. Ideally, the Rams create a bidding war between the Browns and another team (most likely the Redskins) and are able to pry both of Cleveland’s 1st-round picks from GM Tom Heckert. But while the Browns have the edge over anyone interested in trading up, never underestimate Daniel Snyder’s complete disregard for the value of draft picks. If Snyder gets desperate, he just may put together a package the Rams can’t refuse.

Scenario 2: Browns select Griffin at No. 4 – While this is the least dramatic scenario, it’s probably the most likely one. The Redskins have the ability to trade up, but the Rams also have incentive to stay put. The Vikings have similar needs to the Rams and if the St. Louis gets its heart set on Justin Blackmon or Matt Kalil, there’s no guarantee the Vikings won’t swoop in a take him at No. 3. That would allow Griffin to fall to No. 4, where the Browns would probably take him.

Scenario 3: Bucs trade No. 5 pick t0 [insert QB desperate team here] - If the Browns don’t want Griffin, the Redskins would lose their incentive to trade up to No. 2. And, while the Seahawks and Dolphins would be crazy to not have an interest in Griffin, the asking price will likely be too steep for them to trade up that high. However, if Cleveland passes on him at No. 4, the Bucs could initiate a bidding war between those teams interested in jumping ahead of Washington.

Scenario 4: The Redskins select Griffin at No. 6 – If all else fails, the Redskins will end Griffin’s mini fall at No. 6.

According to a report from DraftInsider.net’s Tony Pauline, Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill has suffered a “significant” foot injury and will miss the Senior Bowl.

This is devestating news for Tannehill, who has an outside shot at sneaking into the 1st round of the draft. With Matt Barkley returning to school, we’re guaranteed to have more teams in the market for a 1st-round quarterback than we’ll have obvious 1st-round talent at the position. Tannehill could potentially be an option for the Browns or Seahawks late on the first day of the draft.

The only good news for Tannehill is that the only two quarterbacks ahead of him on every draft board (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin) are underclassmen, and therefor will not be on display at the Senior Bowl either. However, others such as Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley and Nick Foles could benefit from Tannehill’s absence in Mobile.

I’ve spent some time over the past couple days going over the top receivers in this year’s draft class. There are five guys who clearly stand out above the rest and, barring any dramatic events in the upcoming months (arrests, injuries, etc), I’ve setting on my rankings for each.

1. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Blackmon is the obvious top choice. He’s a physical freak who has the size and speed to dominate from Day One. The only thing that can keep Blackmon from developing into a Pro Bowl receiver is himself. He was arrested on a DUI charge in 2010, and his effort on the field hasn’t always been 100%. But he appeared to step up his game in 2011, staying out of trouble and staying more focused on the field.

Wright is a legitimate top-20 talent

2. Kendall Wright, Baylor
Michael Floyd and Alshon Jeffery have been No. 2 on most boards throughout the season, but after watching Wright dominate in some of his toughest matchups this season (vs Oklahoma, Texas), I’m bumping him up into this slot. Five years ago it would have been tough to rank Wright this high. But the NFL passing game has been changing in recent years and we’re seeing more undersized receivers emerge as a legitimate No. 1 targets (Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, etc). Wright has all the tools necessary to join that group and be a game-changer at the next level.  Continue Reading »